10 NL top set vs possible flush

Only a few hands into a session so not many reads.

Stacks:
* MP2 with $16.50
* CO with $10.80
* BTN with $9.65
* SB with $10.65
* BB with $1.60
* UTG with $2.15
* UTG+1 with $8.85
* MP1 with $5.90




Blinds: $0.00/$0.00
Site: pokerstars
* * Dealt to CO:Q♥ Q♠
* * Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP2 raises $0.20 to $0.30
* * Hero raises $0.65 to $0.95
* * 3 players fold.
* * MP2 calls [$0.65]
* * Total folds this street: 6
* * Potsize: $2.05
Flop:
* * Q♣ 6♣ 8♣
* * MP2: checks
* * Hero bets [$1.10]
* * MP2 raises $14.45 to $15.55 [ all-in ]

What do you do, and why?

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Call and I don't even think about it. Against a made flush (which isn't likely imo because ppl like to slowplay them) you've got ~35% equity. Against everything else you're crushing.

Yea, not sure why he'd be shoving a made flush here...but either way I call, expecting to be ahead, and still having FH outs if he did flop it.

WVHillbilly said:

Call and I don't even think about it. Against a made flush (which isn't likely imo because ppl like to slowplay them) you've got ~35% equity. Against everything else you're crushing.

Click to expand...

Yeah, and even if you knew it was the only hand you're behind you almost have pot odds to call. 8.75 to win 13. Really, you'd do well to never fold a set on the flop.

He might be drawing on an Ac and wants to get one club by the river, but he is behind and you should make him pay to improve it.

How many outs against a made flush do you think I have?

I think there are 7 for the turn but 10 for the river.

When calculating odds for the turn and river combined would I assume 10 outs? There are probably slightly less than this (for the purposes of calculations) as all 10 are not availiable on the turn.

You have 7 on the turn and 10 on the river.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

LOL i was in the process of adding that bit as an edit whilst you must have been typing!!!

but still, on the turn, facing an all in how many odds would I assume?

Until D'willis pointed out the odds, I hadnt really considered the odds for both the turn and river combined. I dont usually have a strong enough hand to handle an all in bet on the turn. So its not something that I'm usually thinking about. (I think this is a bit of a hangup from my start into poker which was tournaments where the chip preservation is equally important ) So I tend to consider each street in isolation.

I think Ill get the old odds chart back out and start learning turn and river combined odds.

basically never fold a set on the flop. For reasons mentioned above.

This is like as clear a call as if you had the nut flush yourself.

If your trying to use the rule of 2 and 4 for a draw where you'll be picking up outs you need to just basically aveage the turn and river outs. So in this case 17/2=8.5. 8.5 * 4 = ~34% by river.

I still call.. chances of him having a made flush here are slim so folding here is not my option especially in a cash games....

Also .. just thought of this.

Lets say he had a club, dosnt matter say Ac.

He would have 9 outs to hit a flush.

I have 8.5 to improve to a full house or quads, so do the outs cancell eachother out?

So im ahead of everything but a made flush on the flop.

and have a draw of equal likelyhood of hitting.. (im just as likely to improve as a flush draw is to hit)

and even against a made flush, I have 8.5 outs and am getting near correct odds to call

Against a single club you have 70% equity.

Download PokerStove if you don't already have it to see how you fair against his entire range (hint: you're a solid favorite).

Stu_Ungar said:

Also .. just thought of this.

Lets say he had a club, dosnt matter say Ac.

He would have 9 outs to hit a flush.

I have 8.5 to improve to a full house or quads, so do the outs cancell eachother out?

So im ahead of everything but a made flush on the flop.

and have a draw of equal likelyhood of hitting.. (im just as likely to improve as a flush draw is to hit)

and even against a made flush, I have 8.5 outs and am getting near correct odds to call

Click to expand...

No, because if neither of you hit you win. Or if both of you hit you win. The only way he wins is if he hits and you don't. Sort of like AA vs. KK. You both have 2 outs yet the AA is way ahead. But yeah as a general rule never fold any set on the flop, let alone top set. There are some spots where it is possible to fold bottom set but that would be against someone that has proven to be a super-nit and who has taken such a strong line. But if you never ever fold a set on the flop you won't ever make a mistake imo.

Odds of flopping a flush are somewhere around 118 - 1 i think? And with the villians actions it seems he might have the Ace of clubs. Perhaps AKo?