Aight, so I think Rich gets to the point of the problem that I should think about checking in this spot and trying to see showdown. I suppose it does make our river call very difficult, OOP, though so I can see merits of betting. Hence why I posted this, I think its a tough spot .
You guys are probably going to hate this play, but since my opponent didn't 3-bet I ruled out somethings:
1) He doesn't have TT-QQ, and he doesn't have KQ, AQ, or AK.
2) He's likely playing a hand that has value in calling. So pairs 9 or lower (with 9's being borderline 3-bet territory), and suited connectors/gappers, ect.
3) There are two reasons he could raise the turn. He was either slowplaying and wanted me to two barrel, or he wants to push me off my hand. He may have picked up a draw to go with it.
So the only monsters worthy of slowplay in his range are 55, 9T, 95, and maybe 99. I figured that was a pretty tight range. Plus, this guy is aggro. In 10$ NL, if they're 3-betting often, they probably don't believe in slow playing. And since his raise was on the largish side, he prolly wanted me to exit.
So long story short, I shoved over him. I figured this guy is shoving the river just about always, and there's a lot of bad cards that can hit. Calling is out of the question. So sure, this is a marginal play *at best*, but I'd rather be making over-aggressive mistakes 4 handed than weak ones. Plus, sometimes you just know they're full of sh1t
Standard Line: Check/call the turn. Call a non scary river.
Hero bets $1.50. Carbona raises to $4.50. Hero
goes all-in for $40.97. Carbona goes all-in for
$11.70. Hero is returned $29.27 (uncalled).
(no action in this round)
Hero has Kh 9d Tc Kd 9h: two pair, kings and nines.
Carbona has Jd 9d Tc Kd 9h: a pair of nines.