$10 max NLHE -- middle pair; better way to play?

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed)
UTG ($8)
UTG+1 ($10.75)
MP1 ($6.75)
MP2 ($9.85)
MP3 ($4.05)
Hero ($15.45)
Button ($8.20)
SB ($22.30)
BB ($16.40)
Preflop: Hero is CO with , .
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.5, 3 folds, MP1 calls $0.40, MP2 folds.
Flop: ($1.25) , , (2 players)
MP1 bets $0.2, Hero raises to $1.4, MP1 calls $1.20.
Turn: ($4.05) (2 players)
MP1 bets $1.40, Hero folds
Final Pot: $4.05

why fold?

His flop and turn bets are really weak and are often attempts to set a cheap price for a draw. I don't think he has an ace although if he is loose enough, I guess it's possible that he made some bad calls earlier in the hand.

Putting him all in has the benefits of getting all his money in before he hits, if he is drawing, and probably folding JJ.

The advantage of calling is that you will lose less when he has an ace, since you can fold if he bets on the river and may not have to call a bet on the river at all.

I think I prefer putting him all in

I don't like putting him all-in, because chances are then that he only calls with a hand that beats you.

I really don't see a problem with just calling and re-assessing on the river. Pot control is the key and if he's bluffing there is a chance he'll give up on the river.

Did you have any clear reads or not? and what is your image at the table?If you've been winning pots uncontested then I'd give him a bit more credit for a hand.

Schatzdog said:

I don't like putting him all-in, because chances are then that he only calls with a hand that beats you.

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^^^^^^^^^

putting him all in is very bad but calling is what I would do.

Here's the thing. I don't like calling with the intention of folding any river card. I can see folding to a flush card. The hand seems like a flush draw or a TP hand like 98 or something. I don't think you want to just call if you are putting him on a hand like that. You shouldn't want to give a flush draw a free look at this river. You might get a weak top-pair hand to call so I like a push.

Threads13 said:

Here's the thing. I don't like calling with the intention of folding any river card. I can see folding to a flush card. The hand seems like a flush draw or a TP hand like 98 or something. I don't think you want to just call if you are putting him on a hand like that. You shouldn't want to give a flush draw a free look at this river. You might get a weak top-pair hand to call so I like a push.

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and again you are only getting called if you are beat, pushing here is -ev big time. If you call you give him a chance to bluff the river on a missed draw. Giving a free card is fine here because it makes the river very easy to play. If you push here he is going to fold if he has a draw and going to call if we are beat, I dont see how you can justify that play?

stormswa said:

and again you are only getting called if you are beat, pushing here is -ev big time. If you call you give him a chance to bluff the river on a missed draw. Giving a free card is fine here because it makes the river very easy to play. If you push here he is going to fold if he has a draw and going to call if we are beat, I dont see how you can justify that play?

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A FD and weak TP is a big part of his range at this point. If he has either one of those hands you should raise according to the FTOP. Also, the pot is large at this point so you want to maximize your change of winning it.

Threads13 said:

A FD and weak TP is a big part of his range at this point. If he has either one of those hands you should raise according to the FTOP. Also, the pot is large at this point so you want to maximize your change of winning it.

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ok and if he has flush draw he folds and you lose money you could gain on the river and TP he calls and you lose the pot. Both ways you lose money if you push. your last sentence makes zero sense to any logical person, if you are just going to push everytime you feel you could lose the pot on the river in long run you are going to be a losing player.

anyway you look at it shoving here is horrible, you do understand a flush draw is only 33% to hit with one card to come right? and he will bluff a missed flush draw enough to make our call of $1.40 profitable.

just ran it through pokerstove we have 72% equity against a flush draw with 1 overcard, 68% equity if he has paird the 6 with 1 overcard, and 65% equity vs 2 overcards and flush draw. Those are all within the range that he is going to block bet with.

I doubt he floats us with a bare ace on this flop.

Stormswa,

I agree that if the opponent always folds a flush draw, a push is no good, but I guess I am having a hard time understanding why you think that a flush draw always folds to a push

This is .5/.1
A push gives the opponent about 3:1 odds to call
The opponent may also have 1 or 2 overcards which he may think is good

I am also skeptical about the benefit of inducing bluffs on the river.
If a non-spade J comes on the river and he bets his last $3.45 into you, is a call +EV? What if he only bets $2?

If a non-spade 3 comes on the river and he bets his last $3.45 into you, how often is this a bluff? What if he only bets $2?

ajrenni722 said:

Stormswa,

I agree that if the opponent always folds a flush draw, a push is no good, but I guess I am having a hard time understanding why you think that a flush draw always folds to a push

This is .5/.1
A push gives the opponent about 3:1 odds to call
The opponent may also have 1 or 2 overcards which he may think is good

I am also skeptical about the benefit of inducing bluffs on the river.
If a non-spade J comes on the river and he bets his last $3.45 into you, is a call +EV? What if he only bets $2?

If a non-spade 3 comes on the river and he bets his last $3.45 into you, how often is this a bluff? What if he only bets $2?

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im not taking into account the stakes, im giving general answers on what a majority of players would do. If you want to put stakes in play then you also have to account for specific reads which we dont have but we cant do that in the HA section we are supposed to give very general info on a hand from what we know which is the hand history.

if he shoves the river then it comes down to what I think he has, I go through his line and try to figure out how often "I FEEL" he will make this bet with complete air or a hand that we beat. If "I FEEL" that he will make this play enough I will make the call. dont feel like doing the math right now but im sure I only need to be right maybe 1 out of 4 times minimum to make the call +ev. Guess I could not be lazy and go get the hand history up on my other screen one sec.....

ok on turn there is $4.05 in the pot, we have put $1.90 in the pot leaving us $13.55 behind. Guy has put in 3.20 leaving him $3.55, with him being so shortstacked im guessing he will bluff a ton on the river with missed draws. Remember also that we have position on him by calling here we kinda raise our calling odds on the river, pot will be like almost $7 and we will only have to call $3.55. Its a much more passive way to play.

ok so what if a spade comes? I honestly dont have him on the flush someone else said that, I have him on a 6 or a 8. I dont believe the ace helped him I just think he is a low limit donk that is trying to squeeze out 2 pair or trip up by the river. Im calling river bet against him almost 100% of the time in this hand.

I dont play to loose even though I do loose alot CALL!!!

stormswa said:

ok and if he has flush draw he folds and you lose money you could gain on the river and TP he calls and you lose the pot. Both ways you lose money if you push. your last sentence makes zero sense to any logical person, if you are just going to push everytime you feel you could lose the pot on the river in long run you are going to be a losing player.

anyway you look at it shoving here is horrible, you do understand a flush draw is only 33% to hit with one card to come right? and he will bluff a missed flush draw enough to make our call of $1.40 profitable.

just ran it through pokerstove we have 72% equity against a flush draw with 1 overcard, 68% equity if he has paird the 6 with 1 overcard, and 65% equity vs 2 overcards and flush draw. Those are all within the range that he is going to block bet with.

I doubt he floats us with a bare ace on this flop.

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Dude, there is no need to be a jerk. It was a simple typo at the end of my post. Any logical person could have figured that out!



First off, I am multitasking when I post . Sorry for any confusion.

When I was talking about top pair I was talking about flopped top pair. Sure, that is unclear.

A flush draw isn't hitting 33% of the time. It is hitting 20% of the time.

Now to get to the point.

When the pot is large you should maximize your chances of winning it. This is a basic poker principle, and I am sure you are familiar with it. The pot is large here. Why do you want to give a hand that is likely a flush draw or a pair of 8's a free shot at the river in a big pot? I realize we are not going to get called by worse hands very often. However, the single most import factor in any poker hand is the size of the pot. The pot is large here.

If you don't think that 8's are a large pot of his range, unless it is specifically A8, then that is something else. I realize that a majority of the time that he calls he will have us beat. However, I am not saying the value from this play comes from getting called by a worse hand. The value of this play is from taking down a large pot.

i like calling the turn, evaluating river - namely calling most decent bets on most rivers.... but contemplating a fold on a flush river...

ai on turn gets called by very little that u beat - theres even a decent chance he had the FD w the ace...