Originally Posted by stormswa
ok and if he has flush draw he folds and you lose money you could gain on the river and TP he calls and you lose the pot. Both ways you lose money if you push. your last sentence makes zero sense to any logical person, if you are just going to push everytime you feel you could lose the pot on the river in long run you are going to be a losing player.
anyway you look at it shoving here is horrible, you do understand a flush draw is only 33% to hit with one card to come right? and he will bluff a missed flush draw enough to make our call of $1.40 profitable.
just ran it through pokerstove we have 72% equity against a flush draw with 1 overcard, 68% equity if he has paird the 6 with 1 overcard, and 65% equity vs 2 overcards and flush draw. Those are all within the range that he is going to block bet with.
I doubt he floats us with a bare ace on this flop.
Dude, there is no need to be a jerk. It was a simple typo at the end of my post. Any logical person could have figured that out!
First off, I am multitasking when I post . Sorry for any confusion.
When I was talking about top pair I was talking about flopped top pair. Sure, that is unclear.
A flush draw isn't hitting 33% of the time. It is hitting 20% of the time.
Now to get to the point.
When the pot is large you should maximize your chances of winning it. This is a basic poker principle, and I am sure you are familiar with it. The pot is large here. Why do you want to give a hand that is likely a flush draw or a pair of 8's a free shot at the river in a big pot? I realize we are not going to get called by worse hands very often. However, the single most import factor in any poker hand is the size of the pot. The pot is large here.
If you don't think that 8's are a large pot of his range, unless it is specifically A8, then that is something else. I realize that a majority of the time that he calls he will have us beat. However, I am not saying the value from this play comes from getting called by a worse hand. The value of this play is from taking down a large pot.