10 10 vs Flop Shove 6max 25NL

Villain is 20/12.5/2 over 65 hands
I have been 25/23/1

pokerstars GAME #16490088341: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.10/$0.25) - 2008/04/04 - 20:11:10 (ET)
Table 'Aigyptios V' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: bw07507 ($40.90 in chips)
Seat 3: qqch13 ($24.65 in chips)
Seat 4: jso827 ($25.45 in chips)
Seat 5: AntoinePL ($16.05 in chips)
Seat 6: cptnjfox ($16.85 in chips)
jso827: posts small blind $0.10
AntoinePL: posts big blind $0.25
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Ts Th]
cptnjfox: folds
bw07507: raises $0.75 to $1
qqch13: folds
jso827: folds
AntoinePL: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [3c 9d 7c]
AntoinePL: bets $1.25
bw07507: raises $2.75 to $4
AntoinePL: raises $11.05 to $15.05 and is all-in
bw07507: ?

I would call here just because of the stack sizes. Also the 2 clubs helps you, a lot of draws will be doing this. If he was sitting on a full buy-in I think we could fold this, but I think this is a call here. He flat called preflop, so most likely he doesn't have AA-QQ. You probably aren't far ahead, and may even be slightly behind, but you probably have odds here. If he set it sucks but I think I'm calling this.

You have to have a plan after raising that flop. I mean if you're planning on folding this then just do it on the flop, you're getting too good of a price not to. I think we see a pretty big range of hands here so I get it in, esp as played.

Definite call; your pot odds are too good to pass up. Put it in and hope to be up against top pair or a draw.

What kind of range are you putting him on here? I dont like saying his pot odds are too good to pass up without considering a range. Yes he is getting almost 2:1 what what is this move made with, it doesnt seem this guy is a maniac by his numbers so we gotta think what he could have, after all he did 3bet you.

I also disagree with Chuck on this one, are you telling me everytime you have TT you either fold or are all in if no overcards flop? What if they both have full buy in, you would push with this? He is showing a great deal of strength and is probably on a overcard/flush draw or possibly a set. Of course there is always a chance with a bluff, but I feel you have represented your hand here and if he is decent at all he should be about able to peg your hand so a complete bluff is not probable.

I dont think there is a clear cut answer here either way unless he has been doing this often. I would probably fold since you have represented a strong hand and he is pushing anyway. 2:1 are good odds but considering the situation he is representing a tighter range than what we can get 2:1 for. Of course im probably giving him too much credit.

widowmaker89 said:

I also disagree with Chuck on this one, are you telling me everytime you have TT you either fold or are all in if no overcards flop? What if they both have full buy in, you would push with this?

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My reply was meant for this specific hand, considering these specific stack sizes. If he does this with a full buyin it's a turbomuck as he'll almost always have a monster, and when he doesn't he'll have a big draw with plenty of outs against us.

I don't like calling by any means, but after raising the flop I think we have to. It is a nasty spot and I'm expecting monsters a good chunk of the time, but I think considering our odds and the fact that there will be plenty of draws out there (and maybe even A9 type hands), I think we have to stack.

It was the BB that called him, its not like there was a reraise, so you fold preflop cause the BB is low? Its not like villian had $8 going in here, he has a decent amount left.

You say you are expecting monsters a good chunck of the time, well we are only getting under 2:1 here I think we can get away from this. I have no problem with the call either, its a close play but I think i let it go.

What kind of range are you putting him on here? I dont like saying his pot odds are too good to pass up without considering a range. Yes he is getting almost 2:1 what what is this move made with, it doesnt seem this guy is a maniac by his numbers so we gotta think what he could have, after all he did 3bet you.

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This was pretty much my thought processing. I know not many people at 25NL will ever lead a set into a preflop raiser, but I thought, given that this guys stats indicated that he had a pretty good idea of what he was doing, I dont think that he was doing this with A9. I took up my whole time bank, but I eventually folded. I think its on the fence between a call and a fold.

widowmaker89 said:

It was the BB that called him, its not like there was a reraise, so you fold preflop cause the BB is low?

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What? I have no idea what you're talking about...all I'm saying is that by raising the flop you're basically committing yourself to calling a shove. I know it's close against his range, and we might be behind, but if you're raising that flop with no idea of whether or not you're going to call, then don't raise the flop at all.

Try running some numbers through pokerstove, bw. Our equity changes drastically when we add/take away flush draws, slowplayed overpairs, A9 type hands, 88 type hands, bluffs etc. The 'answer' to this is really dependent on what type of range we see here...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.608% 45.94% 03.67% 5912 472.50 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 50.392% 46.72% 03.67% 6013 472.50 { TT-77 }

...or add in A9 and a flush draw...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 61.490% 59.65% 01.84% 15355 472.50 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 38.510% 36.67% 01.84% 9440 472.50 { TT-77, A9s, KcJc, A9o }

...or with slowplayed overpairs...

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.126% 36.17% 00.95% 17905 472.50 { ThTs }
Hand 1: 62.874% 61.92% 00.95% 30650 472.50 { 77+, A9s, KcJc, A9o }