nateofdeath said:
i have to be honest, this one doesn't make a lot of sense to me, playing overcards with three spades on the board. it would have been one thing if you had any kind of a hand or draw. quite honestly it suprises me. seems like if i would have posted this hand people would have been critical of me for calling here. I'll believe you when you say the math might justify it, but loose opponent or not, you could be drawing absolutly dead here, and if your oppenent even has one spade, he's drawing for the nuts. it just seems like if nothing else you could find a better edge to exploit. i don't care how much is in the pot, it just seems awfully risky, and really, no amount of a read that you could have on your oppenent (unless you're a mind reader or god were to come down and tell you) can really justify playing this hand post flop. i'm sorry, but that's my opinion. just seems like a bad play and i was suprised to see who made it. i mean, you were talking about catching runner runner for a straight for goodness sake, or a non spade pair, just seems like a reach
and i agree with three sixes, if you are determined to play this hand, at least bet it to get some idea where you really stand.
-n
I want you to be honest.
You're right in that it was a questionable play, and I'm glad you're not afraid to say so (I'm telling you guys that you're giving me way too much credit, and it's even the more apparent when you feel you have to apologize for telling me I'm making mistakes, heh)! But I didn't post this hand as an example of how to play - I would not encourage anyone to play this way, especially in light of the fact that it almost certainly was a -EV play, albeit a fairly close one.
No, the reason I post this hand is as a prelude to a thing I'm planning regarding flop play in limit hold'em. For the next week or so, I want to focus on hands that should NOT be folded on the flop. I think many of you may be caught in the "fit or fold" mentality that many books and articles teach, and miss out on a lot of profit from potentially +EV situations. Again, the one above wasn't +EV, but I wanted to find a situation that was close to 0, to demonstrate the thinking, and given the discussion that ensued, I think I hit the nail on the head.
Yes, I bring up a runner-runner, and I do it for a good reason - it gives me an effective extra out. The runner-runner in itself is not a reason to stay in, but when added to overcard outs, it may tip the decision.
And a final word regarding the hand I posted - it's rarely profitable for me to call here (if ever). I'm at risk of reverse domination, my opponent may have me drawing dead already, if I hit an out on the turn, he may have a powerful redraw, etc. These are all good reasons to fold. But there are two good reasons to stay in as well:
1. My opponent is loose, aggressive and an awful player, and
2. The pot is big.
What specifically matters is the second reason. Clearly I didn't have time to do the math at the table, but I thought for a few seconds and decided it was a close decision. I looked at the pot size, deemed it "big", and called. Remember:
When the decision is close, tend to call when the pot is big. When the pot is small, tend to fold.
What about raising? I thought about that, too - but I don't think raising would give me any benefit:
1. He's not going to fold anything that he bet with. If I bet, he will call with anything, and I will have learned nothing.
2. He's not going to 3-bet with almost anything either. If he does have a strong hand, he's going to wait for the turn to raise me.
3. He has position on me, and raising will not buy the button or give me the chance for a free card on the turn.
Cheers,
FP
