re: Poker & $.05/$.10 NLHE: QQ shove?
Alright. Well, as for resolution, I did shove all-in after he made that last raise. He called with AA. I managed to suck out majorly when the board came JTx/9/K giving me a K-high straight.
I was reviewing what Doyle Brunson said in Super System 2 about QQ after I started this thread. He talks about being only a 6:5 favorite against AK and a 4:1 dog vs AA or KK. He mentions playing cautiously and a few other points. Then I thought about how online players are supposed to be weaker than live players. Llive play is what his experience is based upon and the book mainly written towards. Then I considered that the complete opposite is also true. Many people view online players as much tougher competition than players at comperable live limits (granted there aren't any casinos
hosting nickle/dime NLHE, at least as far as I'm aware).
Eventually I worked my way to the math of it all. You get QQ dealt once every 221 hands (same as AA and KK, and all individual pocket pairs). The combined chance of being dealt AA or KK is 110.5 to 1. If you're sitting at a 9-handed table, the chances someone will have AA or KK the same hand you have QQ is 221*110.5/8. (8 other people who can catch AA or KK). That means for every 3053 hands dealt, one time someone will have AA or KK while you hold QQ.
Obviously that's alot of hands. But lets look at how often that will occur. At a live table being dealt 30 hands/hour (alot for live play I think) that situation will take 102 hours of play to occur. Online, averaging 60 hands/hour means it will take 51 hours. Then you factor in that many people choose to multi-table. That means if someone averages 60 hands/hour multitabling 5 tables, QQ will run up vs. AA or KK once every 10.2 hours. But you're dealt alot of QQ in that time right? Nope. In every 10.2 hours you'll only get 13.8 QQ [60hand/hour/table * 5tables * 10.2hours / 221hands/QQ]. So, assuming all my math is correct (or near enough, lol) 1 of those 13.8 QQ will be up against AA or KK.
And since QQ is about 4:1 dog vs. AA or KK, if
you're getting stacked 80% of the time in that situation you need to be making up for it in the other 12.7 times you're not against AA or KK, which can be difficult considering that you're only a slight favorite against AK. Not to mention the other times someone has a hand that beats you by catching well. And you figure many of the pots you pick up to be small. Now, many of you have PT3 and know that you're winners over the long run when you are dealt QQ. I'm not arguing QQ is a bad hand or that you should fold it all the time; that would be quite idiotic. But if my math is correct, then the cost of not folding QQ in certain pre-flop all-in situations could be bringing down your win-rates, even at low-limit tables. Also, someone please check the calculations. I've double checked it but something about what I've just written is nagging at me like something is wrong with it that I can't figure out. I really hope I'm right, because if there's some obviously blatant error staring me in the face then I'm going to feel quite foolish.
Quite honestly I think the math is fine. What I expect to be disagreed with, and probably quite strongly, is the reasoning. You're dealt so many hands in 10.2 hours (for example, over 3000 hands if multi-tabling 5 tables and averaging 60 hands an hour) that this small deviation from correct play by shoving alot w/ QQ in the long term will not significantly affect your win rate, right? After all, internet play has long been considered to be about volume of hands, correct? I'm not sure I know the answer to these things. And maybe I didn't know the math of the situation or have a read at the time I was playing the hand. But I'll certainly have a bit more to think about next time I've got QQ.