Look, I'm not going to say this is an obvious turn call, but if you don't even think it's close, you're using like 5% of your hand-reading skills
Guys, I've been aggressive and c-betting pots. My opponent knows this. On the flop, he donks into me on a dry board. Why? If he has a jack or better, he's donking into me like <5% of the time, because he knows I'm almost certainly going to c-bet if he checks to me, thereby putting more money into the pot when he's ahead.
"he could have trips, he could have two pair, he could have blah blah blah", okay, you're not even reading the hand, you're just naming hands that beat mine.
Seriously, he's donking into the pre-flop raiser on a super dry board when he virtually knows I'm going to bet if he checks. I mean, think about it. Way more often than not he's trying to take the pot because he knows he doesn't have a hand that can call my sure-bet and a check-raise is more expensive
Now the turn comes. Yes, he could have bluffed the flop and then hit the Q, or have Q7, but more than likely he didn't. And if he DID hit the queen, it's the same reasoning as last time! He's more likely to check to me because the board is dry as hell and he absolutely expects me to bet if checked to me. His top pair is completely concealed. If he magically hit the Q, why is he making that relatively scary bet. He doesn't WANT me to fold a J if he hit the Q. He wants to make a bet I can call
And of course I have to follow up my read on the river
To address Dorkus
"Yeah, the flop is drawless and villain probably doesn't lead out with a huge hand here, but his bet could easily be a feeler bet with something like A7 or a value bet with ~AJ."
I agree it could be something like A7 on the flop
. But lol, once I call A7 is not betting 1000 into the turn or else he's turning a real hand into a bluff. Therefore the only 7 I'm worried about is Q7 and that's unlikely enough (plus unlikely to have even called preflop). You're not even trying to use any hand-reading at all. AJ is checking this dry board to aggressive-when-checked-to-me like 95% of the time, seriously. Almost any other jack is too, but even if they don't, the lower jacks are probably betting less on the turn if betting, not a big scary bet that's half our stacks
1) Um, after the flop he probably thinks/hopes I have the type of hand I have. Which is why the turn bet is so suspicious and nonsensical if he has a big hand or magically hit the Q. I probably have a J, 7, or pair in between. Once in a while I can have a monster, usually not. The turn hits and it's an overcard to the board, so he thinks it's a good opportunity to push me off the hand, especially if I only have a 7 or a pair under J. But so many weaktight Js (cough half this forum cough.. just kidding) will fold this turn as well
2) I see desperation bets all the time.. it's a big pot and it may be his only chance to win it. But, I mean, you've pretty much admitted yourself that this point is meaningless. Once the river comes, I have to call given the odds and the read I've got throughout the hand. Between the read, pot odds
and how common these desperation bets are when the pot gets huge, it's inarguably a call at that point
A lot of hands make sense on ONE STREET. Find hands that beat me that make remote sense on every street
. It's like a puzzle. There's very few and they're very unlikely.