did you really make a flush?

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sh3poker

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What are the odds an opponent is holding suited cards at 6 or 9 person table?I have tried to look this up but all I have found are the odds of someone being dealt suited cards.

It seems to me that you can't just calculate who is holding a suited pair but have to look at who is holding the particular suit represented in the flop. Am I making any sense?

I feel like whenever the board is single suited on the flop everyone freezes up and folds to whomever makes a bet of any kind.

Any thoughts or stas appreciated

Thanks in advance for your help. Sarah
 
ericgarner118

ericgarner118

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The odds that someone has dealt suited cards, won't really help you hear. The preflop and flop action will be a lot more helpful. Most people won't just play any two suited cards (more do the lower you go in levels) so alot of them will go out to a standard raise. Your best indicator is the flop texture. If it is a rainbow board you are probably safe. If there are two to the suit the aggression that you see on the flop and post flop will be big indicators. If you are in late position and it gets' checked to you and you throw out a c-bet, if someone calls or shows aggression you may just wait and see what the turn brings. If you are in the situation you were talking about where the flop is all one suite, well that is a place you don't really want to be without any suites, especially if there are a lot of people seeing that flop. But that's just my two cents.
 
Baby Jesus

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Probability of being dealt a suited hand 23.5% or3.2:1 so you would times that by the number that will give you the odds of any given player holding random suited cards.I think that is what your asking if not please clarify.GL
 
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sarahholt3 said:
It seems to me that you can't just calculate who is holding a suited pair but have to look at who is holding the particular suit represented in the flop. Am I making any sense?
Click to expand...

Nope not making sense!!
How do you calculate the chance of a suited pair?

The way to calculate the chance to have suited cards is if your second card matched your first. So there is a 12 in 51 (23.53%) chance you will match the suit you already hold.

What is the chance you opponent can 2 of the same suite as a monotone flop? If you don't have any of that suite odds for first card is 9/45 and second card is 8/44 so that's about a 3.6% chance (or 1 in 27.5) if I did my math right.

Hope that helps.
 
spranger

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it's actually pretty hard to flop a flush. given that you have 2 suited cards (23.5% of happening) the chance of the flush then coming on the flop is 11/50 x 10/49 x 9/48 = 0.8%

your question is mad hard to understand, but ya, it's not that common
 
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sh3poker

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Thank you so much for your help. You guys are the best. Everything mentioned above is super helpful. I printed it out as reference material...but, it didn't really answer my question (completely my fault for writing such a convoluted question).

Let me try and clarify...will break it two parts starting with what I understand. I think that will elucidate what I don't know (aka my question).

What I know:

1. I know the odds of being dealt two suited cards at any sized table
2. I know the odds of making a flush when holding two suited cards pre-flop, turn and river

What I don't understand is this:

-When the flop is three cards of the same suit. For example, 3s 5s Qs what are the odds that your opponent is holding 2 spades?

-All I can come up with when trying to research this are the odds that opponent is holding suited cards. That doesn't seem at all useful because, using example above, I don't give a crap if they are holding suited hearts, clubs, or diamonds. I want to know odds of them (again using example above) holding spades

I am certain I have over-thought this whole mess. I am asking because I mostly play in $5 - $10 sit-n-gos and I want to know how cautious I should be when I see 3 cards of the same suit on the flop. It seems like it comes up often and it seems silly that everyone freezes up.



Again, thanks so much for your help. sarah
 
Snowmobiler

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sarahholt3 said:
Thank you so much for your help. You guys are the best. Everything mentioned above is super helpful. I printed it out as reference material...but, it didn't really answer my question (completely my fault for writing such a convoluted question).

Let me try and clarify...will break it two parts starting with what I understand. I think that will elucidate what I don't know (aka my question).

What I know:

1. I know the odds of being dealt two suited cards at any sized table
2. I know the odds of making a flush when holding two suited cards pre-flop, turn and river

What I don't understand is this:

-When the flop is three cards of the same suit. For example, 3s 5s Qs what are the odds that your opponent is holding 2 spades?

-All I can come up with when trying to research this are the odds that opponent is holding suited cards. That doesn't seem at all useful because, using example above, I don't give a crap if they are holding suited hearts, clubs, or diamonds. I want to know odds of them (again using example above) holding spades

I am certain I have over-thought this whole mess. I am asking because I mostly play in $5 - $10 sit-n-gos and I want to know how cautious I should be when I see 3 cards of the same suit on the flop. It seems like it comes up often and it seems silly that everyone freezes up.



Again, thanks so much for your help. sarah
Click to expand...


Hi Sarah,

I think what you are asking is a very tough question and would be dependant on a number of things,a partial list.

Pre flop raises-how likely was the action pre flop that someone hung in there with suited cards.

The flop-If the flop contains the Ace and King of same suit,It is less
likely (IMO) that someone has flush draw.

If you bet the flop and see what kind of resistance you get and take it from there.This probably isn't exactly what you asked but I felt like it was best answer I could give!

GL
 
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feitr

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Well the odds of flopping a flush are like 118:1 i think. But, the odds of flopping a monotone board is also very unlikely (50:1 maybe, not sure). Ie. if there is a monotone board, a good portion of that 118:1 is already there.

But the reason you can't find an answer to the question is coz there is none. It depends on the hand range of villain, it depends on board (as the person noted before, if the flop is A high, then it is probably less likely somebody has flopped a flush as ppl are more inclined to play suited As than random suited cards), etc.

If ppl knew the odds that sombody had flopped a flush everytime the board was monotone, poker wouldn't be very complicated now would it...
 
spranger

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if you're looking down at a monotone board, lets say all spades, and you have no spades in your hand, you can figure out the chance a single opponent has the flush pretty easy.
(5 cards exposed, 10 spades left) so 10/47 x 9/46 = 90/2162 = 4.1%

that's for heads up, the more opponents the higher the % gets.

this % probably wouldn't be accurate over the long run, becuase of hand ranges and stuff skewing everything, but probably fairly close
 
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