It happened to me today. I had a pair of aces in the hole and I flopped a set. But also a king and queen - all three spades. I wanted so bad to go all in but I knew trouble lie ahead. I called a small bet. Then came a jack of spades so I knew someone had to be holding a flush. They went all in. Heartbreak! I folded and wouldn't you know it, it ended with a royal flush. :sigh:
This wasn't the first time I folded strong hole cards but it has been rare that I folded a reasonably strong flop. I have never been sorry I folded when all was said and done.
So there you have it. Can you save yourself from yourself when you need to?
bet big on the flop, snap call a jam. you have trip aces on an a-k-q board, what are you afraid of?
flopped flushes only happen 1% of the time and flopped straights w/ suited connectors only happen ~1.5% of the time, so 97% of the time, you're against a much weaker hand, and/or a drawing type of hand. but given the board texture, you're getting paid off of a lot weaker sets, 2 pairs, top pair, mid or bottom pair w/ a flush or straight draw, etc. so many
hands that'll pay you off when you bet and very few hands that have you out right beat.
not saying it's impossible for you to be behind on the flop, it's just very unlikely. and, if you are, you have redraws to improve on the turn or river.
i really dislike your call on the flop because you convinced yourself you were behind or you're going to behind on a later street, and you allowed yourself to play super passively to give your big hand 'protection'. but it doesn't need it. it's such a strong hand you're getting paid off on so many times, you want to get your money in. in fact, you'd rather get your money in on the flop (if you can) because you guarantee you see the turn and river and you avoid putting yourself in awkward spots where you can get bluffed on a scary turn or river.
now, am i saying the turn fold to a jam is a bad fold? no, it's not. it's probably a great fold because you're likely way behind at that point. that's not the issue. the issue is, you put yourself into such an ugly spot that you're forced to make the fold. when you have a monster of a hand, you want to avoid weird spots where you're forced to check/fold or it's going to kill your action. by betting big, you know you're getting called by so many broadway combinations and you know, if your opponent has any strong hands+draws, they're calling or even jamming it in. and that's what you want, to set yourself up to stack off your opponent with a big hand.
so, yes, great fold but i think you played the hand poorly. would you have lost the hand if you played it aggressively? yes, but that's not the point. you can't be result oriented because you're going to lose sometimes, but you're still winning in this spot way more often than you lose. think of it this way, say the opponent had k10, no flush draw and they would've paid off a big flop bet, turn jam. but you decide to call a flop bet, check it down to the river. how much value did you just lose in that spot?
impossible to say without stack sizes, but you're losing a lot more value in that spot when you win the small pots by playing your strong hands passively than you are when you get it in good and lose by river. it's just simple +ev maths. of course, i'll take in some considerations if stacks are ridiculously deep but if they're the typical 25-65ish bb stacks, to be afraid to play for you full stack.