Yet another ITM% SnG thread
I know I've posted this several times before, but I was thinking today while looking through stats, what percent of the time you need to place in order to make a profit at SnGs.
I play $35 + $3 6-seater SnGs with %65/%35 payout for 1st/2nd place.
If I were playing a winner-take-all tournament, it'd be an easy calculation:
say 10 games played:
(X is the number of times out of 10 you'd need to place)*(1st place's payout)=(total bought in + fees)
so solve for X, and we get:
So to be safe, we say you need to place 1.7 times out of 10, or %17 of the time. So basically you have to place more often than 1 in 6 times to get a profit.
Now what happens when we get a 1-2 payout like in the 6-seaters I play?
No really, what happens??
Here's my attempt at calculating:
You would need Y times in 1st place to make a profit:
Y=2.78 (so roughly 2.8 times out of 10, %28, or 1 in 4 times)
You would need Z times in 2nd place to make a profit:
Z=5.17 (so roughly 5.2 times out of 10, %52, or 1 in 1.9 times)
So in order to find out what % we need ITM total (1st place and 2nd), do we average the Z and Y values?
(Y+Z)/2=(2.78+5.17)/2=3.975 or 4
so 4/10 times or %40?
This doesn't match my stats though; I'm getting a %35.86 ROI at the $35 SnGs, and am still making a significant profit. Could this be because 4 of my 5 ITM placings are 1st and not 2nd?
I dunno; just rambling and trying to understand the math behind it.
Anyone see any errors or anywhere that I did something wrong, please point it out