re: Poker & My wife needs to know!
Originally Posted by juiceeQ
Can we please get an equation to show how you determine these #'s?
Let's say that you play a single table, at a rate of about 50 hands/hour. Let's further stipulate that your wife walks in on average once per hour, but that you only have to panickingly close the client every other time (the other times maybe it's enough to just alt-tab).
With a somewhat normal distribution of hands and playstyle for an atleast-breakeven-player, you're likely to play about 20% of the hands you're dealt, and you're likely to go to showdown with about 40% of them. To make the calculations easier, let's pretend it's 50% showdowns. This means that you get 10% of the hands to showdown. Let's also consider that you win about 30% of all the hands that you play (a pretty common statistic).
Alright. So 30% of 20% is 6% - you expect to win 6% of the hands you play. The only time closing down the client is -EV is when you're currently playing a hand that you would have won. The wife will walk in on - and causing you to close the client - 1% of the hands. 1% of 6% is 0.06%. You're forfeiting a pot of 0.06% of whatever the standard pot size is at the limits you play.
For instance, I play chiefly $2/$4 limit. The average pot size is $25 (roughly). 0.06% of $25 is 0.015, or 1.5 cents. So if Lori didn't know, I'd be losing 1.5 cents an hour trying to hide it from her. This translates into a winrate decrease of 0.075 BB/100.
Now this just further proves my point that in limit poker, it's all about pushing the small edges...
Perhaps Bill would like a discussion on the metagame disadvantages to lying to the missus, as well. I believe there could be many.