Whether to play suited connectors

I'm trying to figure out some of the mathematical sides of poker, and trying to develop some sort of systematical playing style. I know decent players will pick up on this, but I'm playing at micro stakes so I don't think this is an issue for the time being. Plus, when it becomes an issue, I can make little rules to confuse the hell out of players. I want to make some sort of system because this will help me make good plays when in difficult decisions, and let me learn from my mistakes.

Ok, here is the actual question. Trying to figure out how many chips I would have to make in order for playing suited connectors to be profitable. So, here's some lovely math

The chance of a two pair is (6*5*44 * 3)/(50*49*48) = 0.03367346939
The chance for three of a kind: 6*5*4/50*49*48=1.020408163x10^-3
The chance for a flush: 11x10x9/50x49x48=8.418367347x10-3
The chance for a straight:4x4x4/50x49x48=5.442176871x10^-4

All of these added up are .04365646259

This means that you will make a decent hand 4% of the time. Therefore, you should only call with suited connectors if you believe that you will make 25 blinds when you hit your hand. Since this is fairly high, one should only call suited low suited connectors if people are deep stacked(the question is how deep stacked) and if the table is particualry loose.

Now, they're some things to consider:
1) what if someone raises?
2) what if someone makes an even better hand than the one i make(for example, i make two pair and someone else hits a better two pair)
3) what is i made a mistake in my calculation?


So, am wondering if you guys could tell me what you guys think of this. I'm going to try to figure out other rules aswell; I'm still not sure what hands I should play, the internet tells me to play too tight in my opinion(I play at loose turbo sit and gos/multi tables)

Oh soooo confusing...

You don't have to hit a hand to win the pot. That's why most people usually play suited connectors in position and often pickup the pot with bluffs.

Your opponent must have at least 75BB,so you can easily call his flop cbet when you have hit some draw or one pair. The turn may complete your draw or you can hit trips or two pair. Moreover, villain may give up the pot on the turn by checking and you can bet on the turn and take it down.

Suited connectors can win full stacks when you are against big pocket pairs or people with AK/AQ who hit top pair. Another great spot is when villain has a set and you flop or turn a straight.

Don't raise with suited connectors or limp unless it's very tight and passive table.

To sum up: You need a pre-flop aggressor and position to play them profitably.

When you play them, understand that your main reason for playing them isn't winning showdowns.

Profit.



You're playing them so you can bluff and float bets with outs. They also have secondary benefits of range balancing and occasionally making a huge hand but these are secondary concerns.

With SC
1. You need deepish stacks (a, because you want to get paid when you hit and b you want to be able to bluff and get away from a hand postflop)

2. You must either be against a villian where, if you hit you will be playing for stacks, not half stacks!

3. You can play if you think that your villian will fold if he misses postflop. Sop either you want a very low c-bet %, so if he checks you bet and he folds OR a very high c-bet frequency, he c-bets a lot of air you re-raise he folds.

With the villian who you play for stacks with, you need ma MW pot usually to get teh right price to call preflop (you also need position!)

With the villian who can be outplayed postflop, you want a HU pot because you dont want to be bluff raising a MW pot.

When you play a MW pot against weak players, they are playing fit or fold which means they will not be playing for big stacks without a big hand, so in this pot you do not have implied odds, therefore 3bet in position or fold. You will not get to play for stacks postflop enough to justify the call.

So base implied odds on the first raiser, he is the one who potentially has the strong hands, not the 5 callers after.

As an openers range widens with position, against CO or Btn opener, 3bet these hands, you are looking to win preflop, but have a hand that plays of postflop if he calls.

The biggest mistake you can make in poker is constantly thinking hands have huge implied odds. Most of the time hands miss the flop, and the times that they do, usually people do not want to play for stacks, therefore you are instead looking for situations where a raise can win the pot immediately, but if that dosent work and it is called, you have a hand that allows you to play back at some pots postflop.

The only exception to this is where a villain (usually UTG) has an extremely tight range and will felt with a lot of his range, here you just need a decent price to call.

So consider flatting hands like AJs in position and 3betting hands like 78s in position.

AJs will play better postflop than 78s so you 3bet 78s if you think villian s range is wide enough that he folds to 3bets a lot. If he calls, all is not lost, you may hit 2 pair, have some kind of straight draw you can semibluff raise or have a flush draw etc.

AJs on the other hand can be flatted because it plays so much better postflop that here we want to flat and play our position

With regards to playing incorrectly, if you 3bet a player with a narrow range, he will likely 4bet and SC dont fair well in 4-bet pots. Against a player with a wide range, do not flat, he will not pay you off enough when you hit, but will fold a lot if you 3-bet.