When should you really fold AA?

you are playing in a sattelite to the wsop main event on pokerstars. top 8 places recieve $12 500. $2500 travel expenses and $10k buyin. There was 500 entrants and your down the the final 9.

Stacksizes are
UTG - 1BB
UTG+1 - 1BB
EP - 10BB
MP - 20BB
LP - 20BB
CO - 10BB
BTN - 20BB
SB(Hero) - 3BB
BB - 1.3BB

Dealt to Hero AA

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, EP shoves, MP shoves, LP folds, CO calls, BTN calls, BB folds.

Hero should fold.

Its is impossible for all four AIPF players to have AA. The best possible combination of hands the can have is AA,KK,KK,QQ.
The chance of a split pot if the all have random hands is 1.38%.
If the have AA,KK,KK,QQ then the chance of a split pot is at the very best 0.37%.
This doesnt account for the fact that if the two 20BB stacks had KK and split on a QJT98 board then there would be eliminations and you would win a package.
UTG/SB is going to be allin the very next hand.
So even if you get the worst badbeat of all time and the board comes 45678 rainbow and it is split four ways then the current SB and UTG are going to be AIPF no matter wha tthe very next hand.
Also the hand after that UTG+1 will be AIPF aswell.

There is simply no way that getting it in with AA is a profitable play here,

equity win tie pots won pots tied [/SIZE]
Hand 0: 11.050% 10.46% 00.59% 312954 17713.98 { random }[/SIZE]
Hand 1: 11.027% 10.44% 00.58% 312498 17479.65 { random }[/SIZE]
Hand 2: 11.031% 10.45% 00.59% 312561 17534.82 { random }[/SIZE]
Hand 3: 11.044% 10.45% 00.59% 312802 17685.98 { random }[/SIZE]
Hand 4: 55.847% 55.43% 00.42% 1658724 12460.57 { AA }[/SIZE]

Against completely random hands(this means that sometime they have 72o) we have 55 % equity. We loose 45% of the time and dont get the WSOP package. Even if MP wins and 4 players are elimininated, we have the shortstack and go out in 9th.

getting allin with our AA is simply the worst play so i reccomend folding preflop.

the only time i can fold pocket aces is if it is a seat tourney and i am very close to making it and a person who could bust me is allin or raised a lot because if i got a guaranteed seat and nothing to worry y risk it with any cards

evilpoochie said:

the only time i can fold pocket aces is if it is a seat tourney and i am very close to making it and a person who could bust me is allin

Click to expand...

Pretty much what he just said.

Nah Lobster mate they arent talking about bubble of a tourney but that of a satty where there is no extra value in being 8th or 1st but in a tourney on the bubble it would be a bad decision to lay down aces due to the fact that you shouldnt really be playing for ITM unless ur play outta ur BR. Assuming ur playing within proper BR you should be aiming to go deep and Aces on the bubble is definetly a call any and 80% of hte times ull be fistpump shipem!

bump

Yeah lol probably the only situation preflop that I would fold aces... no point in calling when 8th and 1st are worth the same... I've folded kings with great difficulty before lol but not aces.

A no brainer! If it appears more than likely a fold gurantees a seat why call? I have folded AA in a double-up sit'n go tourney where I was pretty certain I would end in the money if I just let the layers eliminate each other.