re: Poker & what stakes do i need to play to avoid the muppets
Here's my problem with being sucked out on:
Poker is a game of mathematics at it's core (at least with the whole, "you'll win in the long run" spiel), but the thing is, the game continues when YOU'RE not playing. If you're supposed to catch 35% of your flush draws after the flop, then you expect to catch 35% of them over a large sample size, correct? Sure, but it could take thousands upon thousands upon thousands of hands to do it.
It's like in the roullette thread, someone said if you flip a coin 100 times and it hits heads 100 times, then should you bet on tails next? The answer is no, because it is an INDEPENDENT event (as is online poker, Live is debatable, because the position of the cards in the deck are real and physical, and shuffling can't produce as random a shuffle as an electronic generator can.
Now, imagine you got your money in with your flush draw (and let's throw in an open ender just to make it a bit more even) you won't always win. And there's a good chance you just lost a lot. But then there are the times that you DO get it, but that doesn't mean crap if no one pays you off. I've gotten some amazing hands before and made the blinds from it. And when you're playing a $1/$2 game, congratulations, your Aces full just won you $5 (Blinds plus your blind, or maybe a couple of callers to a raise). In order to get paid off with a good hand, you have to be paid off by a slightly worse hand.
Aces are supposed to win against a random hand, what, at best 86% of the time? (Two o/s undercards). You know what they say, with pocket aces, you either win a small pot or you lose a big one (most of the time) So yeah, you'll win a few bucks 86 times out of a hundred, but those 14 times you'll most likely lose a lot more than you won.
Now, with all that said, I do believe that you WILL win more in the long run.
This is why bankroll management is so key. If you are only risking so little of your br at a time, you'll sustain a bankroll long enough for the odds to even out.
(If any of this seems jumbled I' sorry I worked all day today lol)