What are the odds?

hobonc

hobonc

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Can any of you math lovers figure out what the odds of this happening is? I'm just curious. I was wondering if the odds of this happening with 2 tables only is greater than the odds of getting a Royal Flush and how if so, how much.
Thanks for your help
 

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ph0n3_j4ck

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HAHAH, i had this happen to me once too. Didn't really care to take a picture though. Annoys me even more when they are both shitty hands.
 
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DunningKruger

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This one's easy, and the odds are much greater than getting a royal flush. The probability that each pair of cards exactly match if you draw two each from two separate decks is 1/52 × 1/51, so it's 2,651 to 1 against. You can double this if the order of the cards isn't relevant (iow if that 2nd pic had shown Ts8h instead of 8hTs).

I had this happen to me tonight, incidentally.
 
zEric7x

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This kind of thing happens to me. I once had two tables almost have the same flop as well at the same time. It usually happens with junk hands.
 
hobonc

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I have had it happen a few times, about the same number of Royals I've had. That's why I was curious. If I had to guess I'd say the odds are close.
 
hobonc

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This one's easy

Um, no, this ones easy for you, lol.

Actually I should have known this because I figured out the odds of drawing the exact same two cards BTB one time. The odds wouldn't change being that they are drawing at the same time.

Even with positional stipulation the odds are very much greater than to get a RF.
 
dmorris68

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I have had it happen a few times, about the same number of Royals I've had. That's why I was curious. If I had to guess I'd say the odds are close.
It's nowhere close. It's at least an order of magnitude difference. The odds of a Royal in a 7-card game like hold'em ranges from ~1:30000 to 1:65000 depending on how many hole cards are used.

What you saw is actually very common, especially for grinders who might play thousands of hands in a single session. I can't count the number of times it has happened to me, including the times I've had AA or KK on multiple tables at once.
 
hobonc

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It's nowhere close. It's at least an order of magnitude difference. The odds of a Royal in a 7-card game like hold'em ranges from ~1:30000 to 1:65000 depending on how many hole cards are used.

What you saw is actually very common, especially for grinders who might play thousands of hands in a single session. I can't count the number of times it has happened to me, including the times I've had AA or KK on multiple tables at once.

I'm sure that more than 3 tables see it quite often. I was just trying to remember the times I have had the exact two same cards on the screen at the same time. I probably should have seen this way more than I have. I rarely play more than 2 or 3 tables at once though.

Obviously my guess was just a shot in the dark. By a man with no sense of direction. Firing only blanks.
 
stevenright

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It happens a lot to me.

And i usually like to play both hand to kinda 'compete' wich one gets luckier.

It is usually a bad idea and i lose a lot more than what i should have hehe
 
mamutmamut

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I wonder what are odds getting AA two times in a row at single table. Happened to me yesterday. I raised first AA and everybody folds so no chips for me. Second time I raised and one limped. Board came 6 K A. Looks good, right? But then came J and then 10 and I lost trips against A K Q J 10. :/ (I slowplayed just flop, then bet on turn and on river about 3/4 of pot each.)
 
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DunningKruger

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^^ That's happened to me a few times. I've also had it 3 times in a row once. The probability of being dealt two hands in a row and seeing AA each time is 1/(17×13)². The odds are 48,840 to 1 against.
 
mamutmamut

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Wow lucky me :D Too shame I didn´t get anything from it but blinds. :D
 
babydrago9

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Ive had this a couple times playing online poker. Is it only me who always will get the nuts or for sure the winning hand with one of the two hands? I noticed it years back and whenever i get the identical 2 cards no matter how bad they are, if the 2 cards didn't work for me the first time i'll always play the second, and usually win.
 
skrsh76

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Multi Table - Simillar hole cards

When I play multi table I usually see the hole cards almost match ~50% of the time? Do you see that as well?
 
DaReKa

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Do the math; record every hand. You will find that your cards match far less often than you think.
 
nax

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DaReKa is right, although we tend to notice only the odd thing and when we see same hole cards in a couple of games we exaggerate the estimates. :D
 
steveiam

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When I play multi table I usually see the hole cards almost match ~50% of the time? Do you see that as well?
I have my doubts on that one...it just may seem like it.
 
robhimself

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Confucius says, "Man who stands on toilet seat is high on pot."
 
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ricksterrick

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Don't worry about if they match or not it's just a coincidence just focus on playing and stop looking for things like that.
 
xtrigemino

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I agree! there's something wrong in the software for sure... always when I play multi, the same J2 appears in a few of my tables more than the usual
 
snklzona

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I don't know about how often is correct or if it is odd your hole cards in two different games or more match but I do know if they are all QQ KK or AA that it is a good thing...
 
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