What are the odds?

When you see enough hands eventually you encounter some freakishly weird sequences of hands - and I'm sure everyone has some stories like this. But, for the sake of science, can anyone calculate the odds of the following:

The same player gets the same exact hand (minus the suit combos) two hands in a row, with the same exact flop on the board - and flops 3 of a kind both times.

That happened to me last weekend. Had J7, flop comes 77T - twice in a row. And I even managed to lose both hands - first time another T comes out, second time some donk hits a strait.

I seriously thought it was a glitch in the matrix or something. Seriously, what are the odds of that happening? I did some rough ballpark math which puts me in the one out of a few million range.

Not sure really. It happens.

I would be more concerned about why you are playing J7 twice in a row.

stuventus said:

Not sure really. It happens.

I would be more concerned about why you are playing J7 twice in a row.

Click to expand...

Because I am a LAG player.

Haha, happened to me to have pocket 7s twice in a row and hit set on both flops. Won both pots. Doubled up on second. This was in a real casino, people were shocked haha. I once got in a live tournament pocket aces, won that hand, pocket aces the next hand, won that hand, pocket jacks in the next hand, doubled down that hand. People were shit scared of me on that table for the next hour.

I can never remember off the top of my head how exactly to calculate odds like this. It's not that difficult, just arithmetic, but I'd have to look it up and I'm not too keen on that right now. But it wouldn't surprise me if it was in the one-in-a-millions range.

Speaking of though, check out what just happened to me during a matrix SNG I just wrapped up at Full Tilt. These two hands are on different tables, but they did happen consecutively (blinds changed right after the first hand).

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HAND 1
--------------------

$2.25 Buy-in (120/240 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Sit'N'Go, 2 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


BB: 10,200 (42.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): 3,300 (13.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with
Hero calls 120, BB raises to 720, Hero raises to 3,300 and is all-in, BB calls 2,580

Flop: (6,600) (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (6,600) (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (6,600) (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: 6,600 pot
BB showed (a pair of Threes) and won 6,600 (3,300 net)
Hero showed (high card Ace) and lost (-3,300 net)

Then:

--------------------
HAND 1
--------------------

$2.25 Buy-in (150/300 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Sit'N'Go, 4 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details


BTN: 1,115 (3.7 bb)
SB: 2,270 (7.6 bb)
Hero (BB): 4,565 (15.2 bb)
CO: 5,550 (18.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with
CO folds, BTN raises to 600, SB folds, Hero raises to 4,565 and is all-in, BTN calls 515 and is all-in

Flop: (2,380) (2 players, 2 are all-in)
Turn: (2,380) (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: (2,380) (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: 2,380 pot
BTN showed (three of a kind, Threes) and won 2,380 (1,265 net)
Hero showed (high card Ace) and lost (-1,115 net)

So, we have 2 hands, A8 v. 33. One flopped Q75, the other Q72. Even though the flops were different by a card, I would think that the odds of the opponent having the same hand with one card different on the flop could be even higher? When this was going on, I really thought the flops were the same, but playing 3 shorthanded tables as that matrix SNG at the same time, I couldn't check until after.

Eugenius said:

When you see enough hands eventually you encounter some freakishly weird sequences of hands - and I'm sure everyone has some stories like this.

Click to expand...

Yep.

Eugenius said:

But, for the sake of science, can anyone calculate the odds of the following:

The same player gets the same exact hand (minus the suit combos) two hands in a row, with the same exact flop on the board - and flops 3 of a kind both times.

That happened to me last weekend. Had J7, flop comes 77T - twice in a row. And I even managed to lose both hands - first time another T comes out, second time some donk hits a strait.

Click to expand...

Assuming this can happen at any time with any hand being the first of the two time it happens consecutively (not just J7), I did a fast calculation and came up with 96,099,694 to 1 (though I haven't double checked my numbers).

Eugenius said:

I seriously thought it was a glitch in the matrix or something. Seriously, what are the odds of that happening? I did some rough ballpark math which puts me in the one out of a few million range.

Click to expand...