What are the odds?

Calling all math peeps...what are the odds if you are dealt Kxs that you flop a flush and another player has Axs? Why do I ask, because it happened. I'm not sure, but I think flopping a flush is roughly 1% so if you factor in having the K and someone else having the A, it has to be one of those extremely rare situations like set over set. In fact, is it more rare than set over set? Probably not given 13 cards in a suit and 8 cards in two sets, but in the flush situation there are 7 out of 13 cards accounted for and then one person has to have the second highest and the other the nuts.

Think of it this way you have 2 suited cards not an ace so there are 50 cards left. What is the chance he has the ace of the suited cards you have? 1/50 = 0.02 = 2%

OK now there are 10 cards of that suite left out of 49 cards so there is a 10/49 chance he will get another card of that suite. so 10/49=0.204 = 20.4%

Now you multiply the two together 0.02 * 0.204 = 0.00408 or about 0.4% (about 1 in 245 times) chance he has the same suited ace as your suited king.

Not sure about the set over set ... I will think on that one.

Thanks...so 1 in 245 and then 3 of that suit have to be dealt on the flop. So we are talking probably 1 in a 1000.

Once you have Kx suited, the chance of the other player having Ax of the same suit is 1/50 x 10/49 = 10/2450 = 1/245.

Now given that you both have those hole cards, the chance of the flush actually coming on the flop is 9/48 x 8/47 x 7/46 = 504/103,776
which is equal to about 1/206.

So there's two answers to the question:
If you're already given that you have Kx suited and he has Ax suited same suit, the chance of the flush coming is 1/206 = 0.48%

If you're looking at Kx suited, the chance of the other player having the Ax suited AND the flop coming a flush is 1/245 x 1/206 = 1/50,470
which equals around 0.002%

Hilarious, it happened again. I really have not played that much since Feb. 23rd, maybe a handful of hours. Anyway, I have J8 suited, flop the flush and someone else has A3 and flops the higher flush. Granted the odds are not as low as having the perfect A vs K high, but still the odds have got to be pretty low here.