What is the math formula... RE: Pineapple

MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

Legend
Silver Level
Joined
Jan 29, 2011
Total posts
2,206
Chips
0
What is the math formula for figuring out chances of being dealt pocket kings (for example) from a 52 card deck.
I assume the number 52 is involved as well as the number 2??? (I'm a mathematical moron).
And here's why - I want to substitute the number 2 (cards being dealt) with the number 3 (cards being dealt) for a pineapple tournament. I went and played in one and was well on my way to winning it except for a 2 outer on the river to the big stack at the final table. I came away seeing that the vast majority of people are playing it completely wrong and thinking that extra card is giving them license to play more speculative hands. This would be appropriate in Crazy Pineapple where you can see the flop before you discard, but this game has the discard BEFORE the flop is dealt (after the initial round of betting). So it is my hypothesis you should be even tighter and that you can actually afford to be as big pocket pairs will visit you more often. Tonight I had KK 3 times, AA once, JJ once, TT twice (also several other smaller pairs) - IN ABOUT 2 HOURS. Obviously if you get an extra card your chances of hitting a pair increases - but by how much?
Math Geeks?
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Total posts
2,683
Chips
0
There are four Kings so the odds of getting a King first is 1/13, then you have 3/51

1/13*3/51 should do it for you. I have never tried this before tho so excuse me if its incorrect.
 
C

chequemate8

Rising Star
Bronze Level
Joined
Nov 30, 2012
Total posts
11
Chips
0
Looks right for finding pocket kings, but not the same for finding a pocket pair ;)
 
DaveE

DaveE

Solvem probler
Project Moderator
Joined
Mar 8, 2007
Total posts
14,363
Awards
23
CA
Chips
932
If your first 2 cards are not a pair, the third card gives you an extra 12% chance of pairing one of your first 2 cards...6/50.
 
Last edited:
O

orangepeeleo

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Mar 8, 2007
Total posts
3,148
Chips
0
Is it not just 4/52*3/51

Not sure where someone gets 1/13 from, the first card drawn is always going to be x/52, 1/13 would be if we were drawing for a specific King right? Whereas here we're just wanting any King and then another King drawn next
 
DaveE

DaveE

Solvem probler
Project Moderator
Joined
Mar 8, 2007
Total posts
14,363
Awards
23
CA
Chips
932
Your first 2 cards are going to pair ~5.9% of the time. 94.1% of the time you won't pair. In pineapple that 94.1 is going to pair 12% of the time..11.3%.

Chances been dealt pair in holdem = 5.9%

In pineapple 5.9 + 11.3 = 17.2%
 
youregoodmate

youregoodmate

Cardschat Elite
Silver Level
Joined
Jun 22, 2012
Total posts
2,683
Chips
0
Is it not just 4/52*3/51

Not sure where someone gets 1/13 from, the first card drawn is always going to be x/52, 1/13 would be if we were drawing for a specific King right? Whereas here we're just wanting any King and then another King drawn next

Yes you are correct. To draw any king it is 4/52 which is simplified to 1/13. Then there are 3 kings left and 51 cards so 3/51.

1/52 would be drawing for a specific king.
 
Top