Originally Posted by ramdeebam
I'm not looking at the short term mate. The question wasn't about bad beats, it went off course really it was about at what levels does bad play stop? Like stakewise..
anyway again, going off track I understand in the long-term hands will show a profit that should do (not sure if they do in tournaments though)
ps: In cash games I'v actually made a lose more than any other hand with Aces and been dealt them around 40 times in total. Think I'm down over $10.00 from the micro stakes with Aces! Again that's going off track.
Nice stats though.
Bad play never completely stops, but according to many pros 400NL is the point where you really need to hunt to find fish and have to come up with strategies that deal with primarily decent regs.
Variance is linked to win-rate.. the higher your win-rate the lower your variance. So if your complaint is varience at micros then that means your winrate is low and thus your skill advantage is small.
A decent micros winrate is around 7bb/100 but you have to factor in that ontop of that you pay about 6.5bb/100 in rake so your total winrate would be around 13.5bb/100
In the case of high stakes players a decent winrate is around 3bb/100 and rake probably only accounts for around 0.5bb/100 so your total winrate would be around 3.5bb/100 thus you would expect higher varience at higher stakes as your winrate is smaller and thus not able to absorb bad beats as well.
At micros the following is true.
Bluffs are rarer than you think. (people simply do not bluff enough to make snap calling your default line.)
Your fold equity is lower than you believe. (when you bet repping a hand and get a fold, dont pat yourself on the back too much for folding out a better hand.. chances are villian had a hand you beat anyway).
People call too much.. RIO is an important concept.
TPTK / Overpair should usually be played in a pot no bigger than 60bb
People who consider themselves fairly decent players play very spewy in 3bet pots. This is why people always run into sets. When a fish calls your 3bet its never with a hand that he could 4bet for value. When you bet the flop in a 3bet pot you usually bet too big, causing pot commitment issues in the turn. Fish call with PP because if they hit a set they think they will stack you. You will most likely 3bet a purely value range which coupled with the large bet size on the flop will mean you will end up paying off sets. If you hold AA, 3bet and get called, most of the time villian will not hold a hand that will call even a 1/3 pot sized bet. So if he dosent fold to that bet you are likely against a range that beats you, but have sufficiently lagre stacks that you should be able to notice that the passive guy is now taking a line that is most likely a hand that beats you.
Most people do not play back at you.. ever!
3bet ranges are tight!
and finally .. if you 3bet AA then cbet small, get called.. check through the turn and then villian leads out small on the river.. you can snap off his bet. However do not assume that when he shows up with 99 he has "turned his hand into a bluff" He is incorrectly value betting, believing his 99 to now be best as he believes you would have bet the turn with a hand like AA. People often see villian bet out here on the river and make the assumption that villian bluffs. He dosent, he puts you on a hand like AK and leads in his mind for value. Of course this is a mistake as the hands he beats would never call his bet.. but people are bad!
So getting it in with AA preflop is +EV but getting it in with AA postflop is usually -EV in a 3bet pot because even on a J 7 2 board you are essentially flipping. If villian has exactly AJ then you are ahead, if he has JQ he is unlikely to want to stack off. If you hold AA then there are 6 combos of AJ you beat. There are also 3 combos each of JJ 77 and 22 giving 9 combos that beat you. What about the 6 combos of QQ? Well put it like this.. if villian is uncomfortable about getting QQ in preflop against your range, why will he suddenly feel great about it postflop? The temptation is to include it in the combos you beat, but if villian plays QQ passively preflop, then he is more likely to play it passively postflop than a hand like AJ.. AJ has improved whereas QQ is the same hand being played against the same range.. if he felt it wasnt good enough to stack off with preflop then why does he decide its good to stack off with postflop? He will call you down but not lead.
So by keeping spur TPTK hands and over-pairs in smaller pots you extract value from lesser hands but are able to get away from the hand if villian starts raising postflop.
People often assume they would do better at higher stakes as fish make less mistakes preflop at higher stakes, but in reality this thought process usually implies that whilst you play well postflop and on the flop, you tend to make mistakes postflop which are vastly more costly that the preflop mistake made by the fish. (so who is the fish.. is it the guy who makes a 5bb preflop error or the guy who makes a 90bb error postflop?)