Weekend Play vs Weekday Play

Something Poker Orifice said in one of his posts got me to thinking about the traffic flow of the online sites. He has stated a couple of times not to play on Friday or Saturday nights. I also noticed that there is a lot of really poor play on the weekends as well. I know most of you are saying send them my way. That probably is the case if you are a cash game player. In a cash game you can rebuy and have a chance to get your cash back. It's obvious that the poor players are not going to hold on to it. The problem is if you are a tourney player and some guy shoves all in utg with 85 while you are holding AA in the BB and he pulls a massive bad beat thats it, it's over, the fat lady has sung. The 3 hours that you just spent playing your best has all been for not because of one players stupidity. What I am really really really wanting to know is?
A lot of you guys track your playing down to the finest detail. Do any of you track your ROI differential between weekdays and week ends or can you look it up and see if you are taking a beating during the weekend vs playing during the week?
I am really interested in finding this out as it could really determine if I play weekends or not anymore.

calicard said:

The problem is if you are a tourney player and some guy shoves all in utg with 85 while you are holding AA in the BB and he pulls a massive bad beat thats it, it's over, the fat lady has sung. The 3 hours that you just spent playing your best has all been for not because of one players stupidity.

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I do not see why this is a problem. If you have an increased edge your profit/roi will also increase in the long run. Variance generally goes up in tourneys with bad players, but that is a brm question, not a my AA got cracked again beat story.

If you can not succeed against bad players, then you can not succeed against good players. Period.

I think trying to compare weekend/weekday results is somewhat futile because of variance. Few players have enough hands at a given level to determine a true win rate, let alone splitting the hands up for comparisons...

NoOneYouKnow said:

I do not see why this is a problem. If you have an increased edge your profit/roi will also increase in the long run. Variance generally goes up in tourneys with bad players, but that is a brm question, not a my AA got cracked again beat story.

If you can not succeed against bad players, then you can not succeed against good players. Period.

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I asked for mathematical stats on performance of players that play MTT'S on the weekend vs the weekdays. Thats all, not who can succeed against who.

baudib1 said:

TPBB - Shaun Deeb vs Max Heinzelmann EPIC HAND at WSOP 2011 - YouTube

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That was just too sick. He was lucky that was not against Helmuth as Chad said. I almost bet Helmuth would have broke and became extremely violent almost to the point of murder.

You're missing the point.

baudib1 said:

You're missing the point.

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I understand guy was hoping Deeb did not Have AA. I also understand that it was a terrible play. But how can you address a guy busting all in with 10 5 UTG. What was his reasoning? Hoping no one had a real hand maybe. He was tired and wanted to go to bed. Or what is the reasoning for calling an all in with 7 2 hoping you have 2 live cards. There is no excuse it is just poor play.
Or do you have some reason why a player is justified in calling an all in with 8 3. That I missed?

calicard said:

The problem is if you are a tourney player and some guy shoves all in utg with 85 while you are holding AA in the BB and he pulls a massive bad beat thats it, it's over, the fat lady has sung. The 3 hours that you just spent playing your best has all been for not because of one players stupidity.

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This doesn't make any sense, you don't want to get your money in as an 85% favorite because some tard might suck out on you and your tournament will be over 15% of the time? Would you prefer to get it in on a 50/50 coinflip against a solid player?

I'd be shocked if anyone could come in here with a very large sample size showing that they are more profitable on the weekdays than weekends. As someone already pointed out, there is likely more variance against bad players but if the bad players play on weekends, then over a long stretch of tournaments, more bad players has to = more money.

Heres ten reasons someone goes all in pre-flop with 8 3 off.

1. He is a terrible player
2. He is tired and wants to go to bed.
3. His wife has just walked in, caught him playing poker, and told him to shut it down.
4. He is late for a dentist appointment and has to leave the house.
5. 83o is his lucky hand
6. 83 has some numerical significance to him according to his numerology charts.
7. He miss-read and thought he had 88
8. He really doesnt care about losing money and plays these cards purely to piss people like you off.
9. He subscribes to the theory that everyone competes for the good cards so he is better off holding cards that no-one else has.
10. He has bet a freind $100 to see who can last longer by going all-in every 37th hand.

I am sure there are more reasons, but whatever the reason, you should be happy that he does it.

CuttleFish

DEdwardsNJ said:

This doesn't make any sense, you don't want to get your money in as an 85% favorite because some tard might suck out on you and your tournament will be over 15% of the time? Would you prefer to get it in on a 50/50 coinflip against a solid player?

I'd be shocked if anyone could come in here with a very large sample size showing that they are more profitable on the weekdays than weekends. As someone already pointed out, there is likely more variance against bad players but if the bad players play on weekends, then over a long stretch of tournaments, more bad players has to = more money.

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How many MTT's do you play?
Do you realize how many times you are all in in an MTT. at a 15% loss rate you are a loser. You need to win all of your all ins when you are against a player with equal or more chips. You can lose a few if you go against short stacks but your stats of 15% - 85% where did you even come up with them numbers can you tell me. If you go all in more than 6 times at your 85 - 15 ratio you are a loser. You need to win battles in a tourney to win the war. If every tourney was a kamakaze what numbers do you come up with ?. You pick and choose your spots AA being one of them to lose ends your MTT life. Over Finished Try Again.

calicard said:

How many MTT's do you play?
Do you realize how many times you are all in in an MTT. at a 15% loss rate you are a loser. You need to win all of your all ins when you are against a player with equal or more chips. You can lose a few if you go against short stacks but your stats of 15% - 85% where did you even come up with them numbers can you tell me. If you go all in more than 6 times at your 85 - 15 ratio you are a loser. You need to win battles in a tourney to win the war. If every tourney was a kamakaze what numbers do you come up with ?. You pick and choose your spots AA being one of them to lose ends your MTT life. Over Finished Try Again.

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So you are saying you would prefer 50/50 flips vs good players??? That way every 2 hands you can be a loser!!

You missed the point a long time ago.

Bad players = more profit. Easy game.

calicard said:

How many MTT's do you play?
Do you realize how many times you are all in in an MTT. at a 15% loss rate you are a loser. You need to win all of your all ins when you are against a player with equal or more chips.

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Ummmm...but the 85% of the time you win, you would be building your stack up to the point that the small % of time you lose its much less likely to be for all of your chips. But hey, if you think you're going to be more profitable against a field of players that are as good or better than you, have fun. I'd rather play against donkeys any day of the week.

Play sattys on the weekends, if you don't mind cashing T$

NoOneYouKnow said:

So you are saying you would prefer 50/50 flips vs good players??? That way every 2 hands you can be a loser!!

You missed the point a long time ago.

Bad players = more profit. Easy game.

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Okay so you have AA every single hand of the tourney. You are playing against 1000 donks every hand they go all in all 8 of them. Your AA is worth crap. So every table every hand you got 8 donks try beating them. Every hand 8 of them are all in. Try beating them with your AA every hand. Give me solid players any day.

calicard said:

Okay so you have AA every single hand of the tourney. You are playing against 1000 donks every hand they go all in all 8 of them. Your AA is worth crap. So every table every hand you got 8 donks try beating them. Every hand 8 of them are all in. Try beating them with your AA every hand.

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This is a dream scenario, if you don't like getting your money in good then quit playing.

Give me solid players any day.

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Your thinking is totally wrong, hopelessly wrong. Your tournament equity goes down the more good players enter, not vice versa.

Also, the mistakes that bad players make will typically be to play too tight, not too loose.

calicard said:

Give me solid players any day.

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Not being funny here Cali but if thats really what you think then why not move up to MTTs with a $200+ buy in? By your way of thinking, less donks, more solid players, better result for you.

Does this rule apply to sit n'go? If so, would it be apply the same as cash game or tournament.

lolthread

calicard said:

Okay so you have AA every single hand of the tourney. You are playing against 1000 donks every hand they go all in all 8 of them. Your AA is worth crap. So every table every hand you got 8 donks try beating them. Every hand 8 of them are all in. Try beating them with your AA every hand. Give me solid players any day.

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ok, not sure if you are just fishing here or if you are serious, but lets use your example where a bunch of donks go all in every hand on every table no matter what they have and you get dealt AA every hand. Simplify the numbers a bit to make it real easy, lets make it 729 entrants (81 tables with 9 donks at each tables). I used Pro Poker Tools to find that AA has 35% equity against 8 other random hands. So you'll win approx 1 out of every 3 times you get it in in this situation.

For simplicity sake lets assume there are no chops and there is 1 winner every hand at every table, if everyone goes all in every hand, it only takes 3 hands to complete the entire tournament (First hand 648 donks are eliminated leaving 81 people or 9 tables of 9), 2nd hand 72 people are eliminated leaving the final 9 and then the winner of the 3rd hand wins the tournament. If you have 35% equity, you would cash and make the final table 1 out of every 9 times you entered this tournament and you would win 1 out of every 27 tournaments you entered.

Now if you entered 27 tournaments with 729 solid players playing straightforward tournament poker, you think you would do better than making 3 final tables and you would win more than once in 27 tries??? Sorry, I don't care how good you think you are, your ROI wouldn't be anywhere close to that against solid players.

DEdwardsNJ said:

ok, not sure if you are just fishing here or if you are serious, but lets use your example where a bunch of donks go all in every hand on every table no matter what they have and you get dealt AA every hand. Simplify the numbers a bit to make it real easy, lets make it 729 entrants (81 tables with 9 donks at each tables). I used Pro Poker Tools to find that AA has 35% equity against 8 other random hands. So you'll win approx 1 out of every 3 times you get it in in this situation.

For simplicity sake lets assume there are no chops and there is 1 winner every hand at every table, if everyone goes all in every hand, it only takes 3 hands to complete the entire tournament (First hand 648 donks are eliminated leaving 81 people or 9 tables of 9), 2nd hand 72 people are eliminated leaving the final 9 and then the winner of the 3rd hand wins the tournament. If you have 35% equity, you would cash and make the final table 1 out of every 9 times you entered this tournament and you would win 1 out of every 27 tournaments you entered.

Now if you entered 27 tournaments with 729 solid players playing straightforward tournament poker, you think you would do better than making 3 final tables and you would win more than once in 27 tries??? Sorry, I don't care how good you think you are, your ROI wouldn't be anywhere close to that against solid players.

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Call me crazy call me stupid but I would rather play against better players than beginners. I do much better in MTT'S of $10 or more than I do in the $200 freerolls.

$100 says you have an insignificant sample size.

calicard said:

Okay so you have AA every single hand of the tourney. You are playing against 1000 donks every hand they go all in all 8 of them. Your AA is worth crap. So every table every hand you got 8 donks try beating them. Every hand 8 of them are all in. Try beating them with your AA every hand. Give me solid players any day.

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seriously? pretty sure this is printing money...

This is the dumbest argument I think I've seen besides the rigtard thread. According to your theory, you're going to have a better chance of making money against Team pokerstars in a tourney than against freeroll whores? lol

You're crazy.
You're stupid.
You have ZERO idea where your profit comes from.
You have ZERO desire to learn where your profit comes from.
The only thing you want is win when you're ahead.
You should learn to play chess.
Poker is not for you.

WVHillbilly said:

You're crazy.
You're stupid.
You have ZERO idea where your profit comes from.
You have ZERO desire to learn where your profit comes from.
The only thing you want is win when you're ahead.
You should learn to play chess.
Poker is not for you.

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Thank you for the encouragement.