Variance, or has something changed to cause this??

Ok so over the las 4k hands at $10 NL i havnt won a dime and have been loosing at 11bb/100, before these 4k hands i was winning at 18bb/100 over 9k hands.

Look at the graphs below and help me figure some things out.

1) Does this look like varience/downswing or has something changed in my game(my play/opponents play/playing conditions etc.) to cause me to start loosing at 9.5k hands?
2)Can some others who have played alot of hands(tenbob/chuckTs to mention only a couple) also post a graph of your overall winnings so we can compare and see what sort of downswings you guys go on?

This graph shows my running total over all my 13k hands:



This graph shows my running total over last 4K hands:

Other player's graph's won't be of much use to you, except letting you know how they're doing. Everyone will have downswings, upswings, and straight lines.Your different playing styles combined with the different types of players each of you play combined with the good luck/bad luck/good run of cards/bad run of cards against these players combined with the different stakes makes it worse than comparing flavors of apples to oranges.

Since the rake is constantly eating away at everyones chips, you need to be very profitable in a short amount of time and play very weak, predictable, and exploitable players, basically exercising table selection, which is not always guaranteed to be profitable, as you won't always get the right cards/situational flops against them or get outdrawn a whole lot.

The only way to answer your first question is to analyze your own hand histories. Study key pots, find leaks where you're calling too much when you're beat or have bad implied odds, look for ways to improve the amount of chips you can get your opponent to put in on every street, etc.

This question can be answered objectively. The way to do it is to take all session up to your peak. From them, one knows the distribution of profits/losses. Then ASSUMING that nothing has changed, the probability to lose as much as you did can be computed.

I am planning on some day wirting software for my own performance, but I am very busy right now. Nevertheless, if you are interested and send me your data, I will calculate it when I get to it. But I don't promise any time frames.

lottomode777 said:

Other player's graph's won't be of much use to you, except letting you know how they're doing.

Click to expand...

I want to see there graphs so i can see if other solid players(i do consider myself solid) also have big downswings. I suppose i dont need to see their graphs but it is comfororting to know others go through this.

it is comfororting to know others go through this.

Click to expand...

^^^^^^^ playing emotionally i think i just foun my own leak

i reviewed my hands and have put it down to some core hands running babdly, although my mind set did become a factor.

All thes hands are in my core starting hands except KQs which i only play in mid position or later.

before downswing:

88,AKs,AQs,JJ,KK,KQs= $108.80 profit.

since downswing:

88,AKs,AQs,JJ,KK,KQs= $51.45 loss


Does anyone else see a connection??

Munchrs said:

i reviewed my hands and have put it down to some core hands running babdly, although my mind set did become a factor.

All thes hands are in my core starting hands except KQs which i only play in mid position or later.

before downswing:

88,AKs,AQs,JJ,KK,KQs= $108.80 profit.

since downswing:

88,AKs,AQs,JJ,KK,KQs= $51.45 loss


Does anyone else see a connection??

Click to expand...

Yep, obviously now you should fold 88, AKs, AQs, JJ, KK, KQs preflop.

Munchrs said:

i reviewed my hands and have put it down to some core hands running babdly, although my mind set did become a factor.

All thes hands are in my core starting hands except KQs which i only play in mid position or later.

before downswing:

88,AKs,AQs,JJ,KK,KQs= $108.80 profit.

since downswing:

88,AKs,AQs,JJ,KK,KQs= $51.45 loss


Does anyone else see a connection??

Click to expand...

why arent 9's and tens on that list? Anywhere this can happen when you only play those hands since if your a,k, a,q or k,q miss the flop and someone else hits you lose money with those, and your big pocket pairs can be busted so you can lose money with those. I imagine your just going through a downswing, but there is only 2 main ways to change what your doing, tighten right up, become a rock and only play premiums and position, or play the same game you have been and hope to power through this rough patch

zachvac said:

Yep, obviously now you should fold 88, AKs, AQs, JJ, KK, KQs preflop.

Click to expand...

is this a joke??

Have a look on my blog, i post all my graphs there.

Munchrs said:

is this a joke??

Click to expand...

yeah man, he was just kathy liebertin' with you

i'm surprised nobody really said this yet (although switch hinted at it) but a 4k hand downswing is incredibly tiny and standard, even for exceptional players. 10k downswings are even fairly standard, and much larger is not uncommon. maybe you've been playing a good winning game over this stretch and maybe you've not, but a 4k downswing doesn't mean a lot. just try to review key pots in your mind (or with friends/CC), think about if there was a better way to play it. but don't let it tilt you or otherwise make you stop playing your game. focus on making good decisions and the $ will come

combuboom said:

i'm surprised nobody really said this yet (although switch hinted at it) but a 4k hand downswing is incredibly tiny and standard, even for exceptional players. 10k downswings are even fairly standard, and much larger is not uncommon. maybe you've been playing a good winning game over this stretch and maybe you've not, but a 4k downswing doesn't mean a lot. just try to review key pots in your mind (or with friends/CC), think about if there was a better way to play it. but don't let it tilt you or otherwise make you stop playing your game. focus on making good decisions and the $ will come

Click to expand...

im starting to realise that 4k is not much and i need to become less results orientated in the shorterm.

Munchrs said:

Ok so over the las 4k

Click to expand...

variance

whether you're a good player on a bad run in the last 4k hands or a bad player on a good run in the first 9k is up for debate.

Dorkus Malorkus said:

variance

whether you're a good player on a bad run in the last 4k hands or a bad player on a good run in the first 9k is up for debate.

Click to expand...

im a winning player but i may or may not be good. over 35k hands of winning at various stakes makes me a winning player i think

Yep, 4k hands can easily be a downswing. If you truly feel you haven't changed your game, then just keep doing what you're doing and it should turn around soon.

Here's my last ~30k hands at 25nl and 50nl but I've been on an absolute heater

But even in the absolute heater, look at hands 22k through 26k. About a 200 BB drop = 400 bb drop. 200/4000 = 20/400 = 5/100 = 5 bb/100 over that 4k hand period.

Oh and to my earlier post, yes of course I was kidding

zachvac said:

Oh and to my earlier post, yes of course I was kidding

Click to expand...

lol shesh i was going to say, 88/KQs are monster all-ins pf!!!!!

Munchrs said:

lol shesh i was going to say, 88/KQs are monster all-ins pf!!!!!

Click to expand...

Oh sorry, of course. You auto-shove with those, but AKs and KK? Just fold preflop.

zachvac said:

Oh sorry, of course. You auto-shove with those, but AKs and KK? Just fold preflop.

Click to expand...

yea def. fold, i dont play raggedity hands like that!!!