Variance, luck, poker and roulette.

Warrior1961

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This is an issue that I did not know where to put so if it is not the right place I ask the administrators to move it where it belongs. While roulette is fully a game of chance and poker is a game of skill with a percentage of chance (in the short term I think it is very high, I suppose it will be much lower in the long run), the other day I was thinking in something that roulette players call "personal permanence", in an attempt to narrow their luck, in fact there are hundreds of posts in roulette forums related to this topic (I must confess that I was in several of those forums). Not long ago I read in the chat that is next to the Winamax room (in the lobby) a couple of poker players who talked about the issue of changing rooms avoiding bad streaks. Although it seems quite irrational to me, does it make sense to make a parallel between the "personal permanence" of roulette players and that dialogue I read in the mentioned room? Is there a way to "measure" luck? Or rather the variance?
 
zinzir

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Nothing from what you mentioned in your post makes sense to me. It sounds more like a combination of superstition and wishful thinking.
 
FoxMS

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We all know that poker has three main components: skill, experience and luck. But you should also understand that luck is actually a player's intuition based on his experience and skills. Therefore, everything is interconnected. Only the fact remains that if you want to succeed, you have to work hard.
 
puzzlefish

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Regarding your question, I have posted a similar topic about variance where I got no responses.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/online-poker-73/variance-be-measured-405921/

In live poker I am sure that some level of intuition is involved with luck and definitely a big psychological component. For example, you may think you are running bad and start overfolding.. or you may think you are running like a god and essentially bluff people off of stronger hands with your confidence.

In online poker I am very sceptical that variance is a truly random phenomenon. There are too many "aberations" that show up, with some unique to a particular site while others seem to appear on multiple sites. For example, when a player wins a big pot by hitting a draw that is the stone cold nuts for the particular board, almost all poker sites seem to punish this player over the next two to three hands and just about any hand dealt to that player is extremely likely to get cracked. In an environment where the cards are dealt truly randomly, this would not be observed over and over. There are many more aberations such as this one and players who pay attention take advantage of them. So if even this one aspect of online poker is flawed and not truly random, then variance in online poker is implicitly artificial and can be manipulated by players, by the site, or both.

So linking back to your story about the poker players talking about changing rooms to end streaks of bad luck.. maybe it isn't bad luck? Maybe there are other circumstances in place that modify what humans perceive as "luck" for lack of better awareness of these said circumstances. I am sure there has to be a way to distinguish luck or variance from something that is not random, but there doesn't seem to be any ideas around here as to how to go about doing that.
 
MishkaZL

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There is no point in complicating the game. In my opinion, it is better to simply enjoy the process without complicated mathematical formulas and theorems.
 
Warrior1961

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puzzlefish said:
Regarding your question, I have posted a similar topic about variance where I got no responses.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/online-poker-73/variance-be-measured-405921/

In live poker I am sure that some level of intuition is involved with luck and definitely a big psychological component. For example, you may think you are running bad and start overfolding.. or you may think you are running like a god and essentially bluff people off of stronger hands with your confidence.

In online poker I am very sceptical that variance is a truly random phenomenon. There are too many "aberations" that show up, with some unique to a particular site while others seem to appear on multiple sites. For example, when a player wins a big pot by hitting a draw that is the stone cold nuts for the particular board, almost all poker sites seem to punish this player over the next two to three hands and just about any hand dealt to that player is extremely likely to get cracked. In an environment where the cards are dealt truly randomly, this would not be observed over and over. There are many more aberations such as this one and players who pay attention take advantage of them. So if even this one aspect of online poker is flawed and not truly random, then variance in online poker is implicitly artificial and can be manipulated by players, by the site, or both.

So linking back to your story about the poker players talking about changing rooms to end streaks of bad luck.. maybe it isn't bad luck? Maybe there are other circumstances in place that modify what humans perceive as "luck" for lack of better awareness of these said circumstances. I am sure there has to be a way to distinguish luck or variance from something that is not random, but there doesn't seem to be any ideas around here as to how to go about doing that.
Click to expand...

Finally an answer from the ones I like !!! With an open mind and acceptance that human beings, beyond knowing how to play poker better or have more or less knowledge of something, just that, just human. The "ego" abounds among all the communities in which there are people and particularly in poker forums from what I see (I have already read some answers with great pride forgetting that I am a rookie). But well, an answer like this and many others (not all of them by the way) make my day and make me feel comfortable and content on this site. Thank you very much my friend. Best regards from Buenos Aires.
 
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MrPokerVerse

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puzzlefish said:
Regarding your question, I have posted a similar topic about variance where I got no responses.

https://www.cardschat.com/forum/online-poker-73/variance-be-measured-405921/

In live poker I am sure that some level of intuition is involved with luck and definitely a big psychological component. For example, you may think you are running bad and start overfolding.. or you may think you are running like a god and essentially bluff people off of stronger hands with your confidence.

In online poker I am very sceptical that variance is a truly random phenomenon. There are too many "aberations" that show up, with some unique to a particular site while others seem to appear on multiple sites. For example, when a player wins a big pot by hitting a draw that is the stone cold nuts for the particular board, almost all poker sites seem to punish this player over the next two to three hands and just about any hand dealt to that player is extremely likely to get cracked. In an environment where the cards are dealt truly randomly, this would not be observed over and over. There are many more aberations such as this one and players who pay attention take advantage of them. So if even this one aspect of online poker is flawed and not truly random, then variance in online poker is implicitly artificial and can be manipulated by players, by the site, or both.

So linking back to your story about the poker players talking about changing rooms to end streaks of bad luck.. maybe it isn't bad luck? Maybe there are other circumstances in place that modify what humans perceive as "luck" for lack of better awareness of these said circumstances. I am sure there has to be a way to distinguish luck or variance from something that is not random, but there doesn't seem to be any ideas around here as to how to go about doing that.
Click to expand...

Interesting summation on live and online poker. Every hand for online poker is available to be viewed or ran through programs to look for anomaly. From the perspective of variance, online being different or artificial would show up in queries that have been ran. That is the way they discovered the very few scandals with cheating were uncovered.

When I see a post on luck, and everyone chimes in with a percentage, not one person can substantiate their claim. Everyone agrees or most do any way, that there is an element of luck. Not many want to talk about both sides of the "luck line". What I observe is both sides of the coin, getting luck and then being unlucky. For the most part, it is a trade off. non-factor.

Making the claim of losing to the nuts, hands played after getting cracked and switching sites, that should be something that can be proven and not just stated. RNG not being truly random, wouldn't produce the scenarios you described, even with switching sites. Not being a random phenomenon would suggest repeatability. That would certainly show up on large hand histories.

Did enjoy reading the post, was well written with some interesting correlation. Just doesn't hit home with the amount of time I've played online. With poker leagues, bank roll competition, forum tournaments and some queries ran on my HH.
 
tehb1987

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You can't compare roulette and poker. In roulette, each round starts from the beginning. Each time, the same probability of an event. You can't calculate and you can't influence. In poker, you can influence your opponents. This is the important point that will help to move the failure. Stealing blinds, bluffing, hiding monster hands. Yes, many things that can be used. In roulette, you have no choice.
 
Mundug

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If you like to play poker, risk roulette. Rely on luck roulette, the calculation relies on poker .
 
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