re: Poker & Variance or bad luck - what is the difference?
ok, before we get way off base here, this is what variance is:
there are two things to consider with variance in poker:
1. how much we can win/lose based on the blinds + winning %
2. how much we can win vs. buy in
what this means is say you hold AA, and your opponent has 72off - you are playing cash game $1/$2 blinds - you go all in for $300, the 72 calls and beats you - you just got hosed as a 88.5% favorite for 150 BB's - that's HIGH variance - obviously this tends to happen more as more people are at the table
in tourneys, the variance increases as more people buy in - you can win a lot more vs. your buy in, and (in my opinion) spend way more time and not win a dollar.
what does this mean?
No limit is higher variance than pot limit, and way higher than limit.
The more people at a table or in a tourney the higher the variance.
holdem has the highest variance as a game because you can reach an 88% predicted win rate vs your opponent, and lose.
So then a massive field NLH tournament is the highest variance you can get, NLH cash games are a close second.
Many think that PLO has higher variance than NLH but its just not the case and these people do not understand what variance means - like a lot of people here - no hand vs another in omaha can reach 88% vs. 12%, and since pot limit the available wins vs. bb will be on average much smaller
Many confuse luck with variance, but they are not the same at all - luck does have a lot to do with how variance happens, but they do not mean the same thing
Many people confuse swing games as variance, like PLO, lots of action, people playing all kinds of hands - but this is not variance
Lower effect of variance - play small ball poker, play omaha vs texas, play limit games, play stsngs, play 6 handed, play heads up
Hope this helps