Try to calm me down.

seeyouthru

seeyouthru

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Let me tell you a story,
In the middle of long rough cash game session that i was playing with loose passive proper calling stations(tougher than ivey).
I picked up AA blinds were 0.50/1$.
I was on button i was 100 blinds deep.
Playing from utg shoved his 18 bigs with k3 off and player from mid position reraised all his 55 bigs stack;
I from button reraised all in and villian 200 bigs deep called and he had AJ off.
He hits his four card flush.
 
DougPkrMonsta

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Here ya go.

Better luck next time!
 

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lxr0913

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well, let me tell you a story.

just now.

NL50 ZOOM
AKo open 3X on the Button
small blind shoves 35bb fold. to me. I call. He has A3s, hits flush.

minutes later, I open AQs on the button. small blind shove 25bb. fold to me. call he has j9s. hits 2 pair.

minutes later, i'm the short stack. utg opens 3x. I shove with KK hj. he calls with 44. 4 card flush.

Rebuy.

minutes later. all in on the turn with AK on an Ace high dry board. put my opponent on a worse ace and i'm spot on. he has AQ. called his shove on the turn. Q on the river.

so i'm here now.

are you calm now?
 
MrPokerVerse

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Tough break, you got the call you wanted but not the results. Better luck next time.
 
Amanda A

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I feel like I'm constantly having bad beats too. Who is on the other end of it, winning with the worst hand all the time? Anyone want to fess up? :)
 
Andrei Korolev

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Well, that happens, moving...
 
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lxr0913

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I feel like I'm constantly having bad beats too. Who is on the other end of it, winning with the worst hand all the time? Anyone want to fess up? :)

I confess I get lucky too. yesterday i shove A9 and suck out KK and QQ, but that triple up is only like 30bbs total.

the unluckiest part is that those bad beats happen in key pots, big pots. people say remembering bad beats especially clearly is because of confirmation bias, but i think it's because of its happening in those key, big pots.

any way, i think im entitled to be grudging now...
 
seeyouthru

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The thing about variance and bad beats is that the worst player will end up being on the good side 8 out of 10 times.
 
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lxr0913

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just now, shoving QQ sit n' go, got called by A5. Ace on the turn..

i don't know. 5 bad beats in a row within 2 hours...

what is happening!!
 
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lxr0913

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The thing about variance and bad beats is that the worst player will end up being on the good side 8 out of 10 times.
yes of course. bad beats mean that you get your money in good but end up losing.

bad players get their money in bad. all in situation, at least 95 percent of the time it's the bad players on the bad end at first.

so in bad beats, 95 percent who ends up winning are bad players. so it's no surprise.

happy i'm not broke yet...
 
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lxr0913

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that day against Brian Hastings, Isildur1 lost 4.2 million. However, with the variance adjusted, meaning that if the cards run out normally after the money gets in, he wouldve only lost 1.4 million. 3 million variance because of luck.

people say 'in the long run....' all the time, but Isildur may never recover from him being unlucky that day. let alone those guys like Matt Afleck.

let's hope the bad beats don't happen to us when it REALLY matters.
 
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lxr0913

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i mean i don't mind coolers. yesterday i open button 55, bb 3 bet. flop 833, he continues 60 percent pot, i call. turn 5, he check i check. jack on the river, he bets i shove he calls with 88.

what i do mind is yet another sit n' go 3 mins ago, QQ all in against 66 and KQ. flop K6x. well there is that. i don't even feel that bad since the pot isn't that big..
 
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take a pillow;

first hit it as hard as you can;

than cry in it as hard as you can;

than sleep on it for a night.

Tomorow will be another day; if you play right, you'll win (matthematical it is a certenty)!



Ore just get drunk and take the pillow to get to sleep right away. ;-)
 
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Pulsar

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Yes, very hard to survive these moments and swearing at the poker room, but it happens all the time with me, so don't worry, you're not alone!
 
dbchristy

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heres the thing some friends of mine have been arguing some say the will fold the AA in a multiway pot for their entire stack. I myslef wont fold JJ for my whole stack(Im not there yet) but it really is just 2 cards(ONE HAND) is it worth it. I cant win a flip ever, and even when im ahead I still will lose if I risk it all. it seems it really is easier to limp in with any 2, than to risk it all Im not sure about cash I only play MTT. Thanks for sharing and good luck on the felts!
 
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clasrasmusso

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You want a call in that situation, in most cases you win, then the other can win a lot of luck, so it's in poker.
 
MrPokerVerse

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The thing about variance and bad beats is that the worst player will end up being on the good side 8 out of 10 times.

Do have data to support this? Are they getting it in with what percentage? Trying to figure out how they are winning 80% of the time with what percentage to win the hand. If those 80% include a 50% plus chance to win then that is a little different story. If it is similar to the example you posted, K Rag off suit hitting a flush, then I'm having hard time seeing that. Really goes against what I see at the tables.
 
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lxr0913

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Do have data to support this? Are they getting it in with what percentage? Trying to figure out how they are winning 80% of the time with what percentage to win the hand. If those 80% include a 50% plus chance to win then that is a little different story. If it is similar to the example you posted, K Rag off suit hitting a flush, then I'm having hard time seeing that. Really goes against what I see at the tables.

check out my post here and you can tell the frustration. when these things happen 4 5 times in a row and you lose 2 3 buyins. then it's justified to be angry. AK v A3? KK v 44? 3 outered on the river? QQ v A5? AK v J9?
 
bstyles85

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Yeah, it's tough. But, that's poker for ya. I've been on a 600$ downswing last month and am finally now starting to work my way back up again. Ups and downs are going to happen, unfortunately.
 
MrPokerVerse

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check out my post here and you can tell the frustration. when these things happen 4 5 times in a row and you lose 2 3 buyins. then it's justified to be angry. AK v A3? KK v 44? 3 outered on the river? QQ v A5? AK v J9?

Here is the bigger question, what percentage are you winning these type of hands? I understand why people get frustrated, well not really. Are you winning QQ vs A J-2 70% of the time? If you are, then why get mad?

If you are winning the correct percentage to the odds of the hand, is that a reason to get frustrated? If I get AA or KK and it's winning percentage HU is around 80%, I'm going to lose 1 out of 5, the one I did lose I'm suppose too. You are losing 4 out 5, how many times are you losing out of 100 or a 1000 with and a pair to one over card?

I think people are quick to look at a hand or two, guess in you're case you have stated 5 hands and then vent. Why not look at the hand history with a free program to analysis large sample size. Wouldn't you really want to know if QQ was losing A J-2, 4 out 5 times HU when you should be winning 70%?
 
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lxr0913

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Here is the bigger question, what percentage are you winning these type of hands? I understand why people get frustrated, well not really. Are you winning QQ vs A J-2 70% of the time? If you are, then why get mad?

If you are winning the correct percentage to the odds of the hand, is that really variance? Is that a reason to get frustrated? If I get AA or KK and it's winning percentage HU is around 80%, I'm going to lose 1 out of 5. You are losing 4 out 5, how many times are you losing out of 100 or a 1000 with and a pair to one over card?

I think people are quick to look at a hand or two, guess in you're case you have stated 5 hands and then vent. Why not look at the hand history with a free program to analysis large sample size. Wouldn't you really want to know if QQ was losing A J-2, 4 out 5 times HU when you should be winning 70%?

I know all that and that's why I am still playing.

But my point is: while the math is certain, meaning that KK v 44 wins 80% of the time, but that is based on the assumption that there is an infinity of KK v 44 hands. However, out lives are short, and there aren't so many hands as an infinity, and furthermore, the really important hands are rare. When Matt Afleck's AA is cracked by JJ, he never recovered. AA gets cracked happens all the time (even more often is that you don't get any action), but that one destroyed a prospect poker superstar.

In short, some people are indeed unlucky, of course not us, but Isildur1 and Afleck. Isildur1 may never truly recover from 1 days downswing, while Afleck plunged to the bottom by one hand.

Some people are unlucky, so deal with it. while the math is certain, but it is also certain that within a given number of hands, AA can get cracked 1000 times in a row, also, what are the occasions when the beats happen? NL2 or wsop ME final table?
 
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lxr0913

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i mean how many times you can get a dumbass to call a preflop shove with 44 against your KK?... perhaps only 2 times in your life once you play higher stakes... and both times KK gets cracked... there is the 80% down the drain..
 
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MrPokerVerse

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I know all that and that's why I am still playing.

But my point is: while the math is certain, meaning that KK v 44 wins 80% of the time, but that is based on the assumption that there is an infinity of KK v 44 hands. However, out lives are short, and there aren't so many hands as an infinity, and furthermore, the really important hands are rare. When Matt Afleck's AA is cracked by JJ, he never recovered. AA gets cracked happens all the time (even more often is that you don't get any action), but that one destroyed a prospect poker superstar.

In short, some people are indeed unlucky, of course not us, but Isildur1 and Afleck. Isildur1 may never truly recover from 1 days downswing, while Afleck plunged to the bottom by one hand.

Some people are unlucky, so deal with it. while the math is certain, but it is also certain that within a given number of hands, AA can get cracked 1000 times in a row, also, what are the occasions when the beats happen? NL2 or WSOP ME final table?

You are not looking for KK vs 44 but a over pair vs under pair. When I notice these type off hands over and over, like to run them to see if I have a leak or could have played it differently. It is what it is, that is poker you going lose those now and then.
 
MrPokerVerse

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i mean how many times you can get a dumbass to call a preflop shove with 44 against your KK?... perhaps only 2 times in your life once you play higher stakes... and both times KK gets cracked... there is the 80% down the drain..

Getting someone to shove a hand 20% percent to win is a +EV in the long run. I'll take those odds and say nice hand when I lose. Hoping to get more of those type of calls.
 
TeUnit

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you are just that much closer to the sunny side of variance
 
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