Trusting Your Instincts
Is it always right to take those +EV situations even when you think you're a massive underdog?
Take today as an example. I'm playing a FR cash game and have KK, I raise UTG to 3x the Big Blind and get 3 bet, by a player I have around 500 hands on at these stakes who is a massive nit and has a 3Bet percentage of around 1%. Now, I've raised from Early position and know I have a tight image and villain has 3 bet, I do not put him/her on AK/JJ/AQs nor do I think she has QQ, statistically unlikely to have KK and even them I'm just throwing the money to the rake or she could have AA and I'm a 20% dog. Is a fold right here? I laid it down and will never know if I was right, but should you take the chance with pocket Kings here?
Another hand I played, there was a raise from UTG+1 and a call from middle position, I call the 3x raise from the cutoff with 55 and flop comes 56Q, lovely. The original raiser raises a tiny amount, middle p-osition folds and I re raise and the original raiser shoves. Now of course it could be AQ/KK/AA in which case I'm a dominant favourite, but the tiny flop bet followed by a shove made me think QQ for set over set. I called and villain has QQ.
There was another hand where I said out loud to myself what the villain had but called anyway because I felt I can't lay this hand down. I don't recall what it was but I was right again.
Is it wrong to call here, or should we always take a +EV situation. I'm not talking calling along with Middle pair because your opponent is some 97% VPIP crazy lag player who bets every street only to lose to his randomly flopped 2 pair with 83, I mean genuinely good hands, when your instincts simply tell you're losing, in a cash game, should you always take the odds
and say well, I'm going to win here most of the time and just get it in?