Is this trend possibly sustainable??? HELP!

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rkymtnoystr

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Ok - brief history of my poker play.
Played total of approximately 300,000 hands in 8 years. Probably 95% was online as a break even player mainly $10 SNG. Some big MTT wins. Throw in some home games where when I want to I can win most games. I haven't played much in the last 3 years.

Three weeks ago, on a Saturday night, I took $200 to a brick and mortar 1/2 game. Played 5 hours and won $800. Same thing the following Saturday, $700. Last Saturday, $900.

Can I continue this trend of approximately $125/hour? Am I lucky, are they that bad, or is Saturday night at this particular place the perfect storm of recreational, drunk, and degenerate players where you can stack because the players are that readable, and that bad?

Here's my theory. I get in at about 8:00 right before the list gets too long. 6-7 of the 10 players are either bad, drunk, or degenerates who are losing focus after 12 hours already at the table. The 2-3 sharks are so tight and predictable you fold when they play unless you have a monster.

I sit down, don't drink start tight build a nice stack (I change my play drastically when I reach $400 range). Then I see more flops and can take $50-$75 pots with bets of $30 even without the best hand. By the time I reach $500 the whole table is gunning for me and they're playing bad hands just out of spite.

Can this recipe be truly replicated every Saturday, or have I just gotten lucky 3 weeks in a row.

I won't tell you where I play
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But I want someone to tell me if I am lucky or if I have found the perfect recipe!
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baudib1

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This is pretty common/standard, you won't run this good forever. Variance is a bitch in live games.
 
TAC91

TAC91

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Your luck will run out sooner or later so don't bank on making the $ every week. I also don't know what type of player you are at the tables so, there really isn't a straight forward answer here from me.
 
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Gunner57

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Congrats but like baudib said Variance = Bitch. 1/2 is a fun game and the players are not the smartest but there usually is a good range of styles and skill level of players.

You can def be profitable or at least break even at 1/2 (but expect the drops to hurt more than others) but I would not expect to make $125 hr all the time.

You might be going at the right time, playing the right tables, and getting lucky but it wont happen all of the time.

I actually have found once I get to $300 I need to tighten up otherwise because everyone is gunning for me I end up getting sucked out on. So I usually tighten up and just win the big pots when I have the nuts at that point on.
 
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RamdeeBen

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Grats on the winnings..

Obviously you might be running good, but players (espically drunk tourists) are so bad at poker playing these limits and by bad I mean even first time they have played the game so live cash games can and are profitable if you are a decent player.
 
MediaBLITZ

MediaBLITZ

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There's only one way to find out.
But you'll definitely, at some point or another, lose your buy-in a night or two.

You'll just have to track it for several months/year. I ran great for 8 months then the wall hit this summer and lost half my profit for the year. Just now getting back to where I left off before it got ugly. Having my best month ever in Sept helps a lot, but that's just another spike that I can't count on being normal.
 
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