If you are on about the football analogy?
The point I was making was, an aggressive soccer play obviously has an amount of soccer skill. However, they `made it` in soccer because they also have an aggressive style. If they lose there aggressive style they won`t be 1/2 the player they were.
So I`m suggesting that if you are a player who uses the table talk I am suggesting, take that away from some players and they won`t be as good.
I doubt any player in the World is not effected by someone like Tony G.
I dont think that your football example was a step in the right direction. What you describe here is 100% Tilt! As someone who has played organized team sports all of my life I can say for certain that trash talk / unsportsmanlike conduct in sports like football, soccer, baseball, ect are usually come from lack of discipline. It is Not aggressiveness, skill, or desire to be the best. Plain and simple when people let their mouths or let themselves get out of hand in the heat of the moment it is a sure sign of lack of discipline and inability to channel their emotions! This is exhibited greatly when you see the end of a blowout game?
Please do not associate this type of behavior in team sports as some type of indicator of skill or heart. To do so would be a great injustice to the others who play with discipline and control themselves while being successful.
Back to if trash talk could be a profitable in Poker......
One way to evaluate trash talk is by the possible outcomes of talking trash.
What are the possible outcomes of talking trash (assume all things the same)
Our Play Villain Play Outcome
Better Worse Positive
Better Better Negative
Better Same Neutral
Same Worse Positive
Same Same Neutral
Same Better Negative
Worse Worse Neutral
Worse Same Negative
Worse Better Negative
If we play Better or play the same game our expected outcome against an opponent is 1 positive, 1 negative, and 1 Neutral = Neutral
If we play worse we have the same and two negative expectations = Negative
Looking at it overall we have 2 positive expectations, 3 Neutral, and 4 negative = Negative
So looking at it this way it looks like it is either neutral or slightly negative. But this for sure is not the entire story so this is not to say for certain trash talk has a negative expected outcome.
Let us say hypothetically you can without a doubt play better or the same while trash talking. (You can only for certain control and measure your actions). Your expectation can then be positive about 1/3 of the time, another 1/3 it is likely to get you a negative result with the last 1/3 to be neutral. Overall not very convincing even after you eliminate your worst play.
I think another effective way to evaluate trash talk effectiveness would be in the same way we should evaluate the effectiveness of using physical
tells at the table to make decisions. Here is how I think it should be worded:
"Trash talk is only useful when it causes your opponent to make the wrong decision when they otherwise would have made the right one."
Also, we need to clarify that for our opponent to make a “wrong decision”, this does not signify putting them on tilt necessarily, but that our trash talk influenced them to make a call/bet/fold that that they normally would not have made that would have been +EV for them.
This would require that our opponents would:
1) Understand what the right play is and 2) would have made the right play had we not intervened
So what this assumption and definition of trash talk as being effective we are saying that we need to be in a scenario that we are playing against a good player
Once you throw in these stipulations of being against a good player I think we can eliminate at least 75-90% of the field out there (present article writer included).
Not only do we though need to be against a good player who knows and understands correct play but we need to be able to manipulate his play and get him off of his A-Game. So for sake of argument take out the top 5% as they are not susceptible to trash talk and take out the bottom 75% so we are left with at best 20% (more likely 10% as bottom 80% does not know how to play correctly all the time and top 10% wont let you bother them).
Let us hypothetically say that you are really, really good and you can cut out the possibility that you will play worse by trash talking and the possibility that your opponent will get better. That still only leaves you with a rate of 50% of having any positive effect over only 20-10% of poker players….
Overall this leads me to the conclusion that while yes trash talk could be profitable, but that you would see bigger gains focusing your energy in other areas of your game.
