Thought bout this for days..confused! working out odds.

Right, this isnt just a question how to work out odds. The thing thats really confusing is when you work out your outs then say thats your chance of winning. for example a board of 2 spades 4 spades 8 clubs you holding ace spades and 10 spades. you now have 6 outs for over cards and 9 outs for the flush. so just assuming someone goes all in with 4 4 so has trip 4s. You now have just 9 outs to hit. The way its worked out says you have 8 outs now cos 8 spades would make a full. so youve got 32% right? but what is confusing is do you really have 32%? taking into account that he has 7 outs to hit full and you draw dead on turn. thats 14% doing that. then he has another 10 outs 20% to beat your flush on river. so even if you hit your 32% flush on turn he has 20% to beat you on river. as also he has 14% to make you draw dead on turn. so this where its confusing. you cnat possibly be 32% to win this hand? yes 32% to hit a flush BUT NOT TO WIN?? but the assumption is in most odds calcs and books etc that you have 32% chance of winning this but surely its more like 25 baring in mind he can make u draw dead or if you hit turn hes got 20% to beat you? am i barking up wrong tree?? and if i aint explained to well then please ask any questions

yes as far as i know we calculate our odds of making our hand, that doesn't mean he can't make a better hand. also as far as i know about 1 out of 3 times you flop a set you will make a full house, so just because on the flop we are drawing to the nuts, doesn't mean he can't make a better hand by the river.

In your particular example, you have around 25.6% equity when you have a flush draw on the flop and you're up against a set . It is pretty confusing though...

Lets break it down:

You have A♠Q♠
The board on the flop is 2♠4♠8♣
Your opponent has 4♦4♥ for the set.


There are 13 spades total in the deck. You are holding 2 spades and there are 2 spades on the board. There are 9 spades left. The 8♠ will give your opponent a full house, so that doesn't count. On the turn, there are 8 spades in the deck that will give you the flush and not give your opponent a better hand. The chances of you hitting one of those 8 spades on the turn is around 16%.

Let's say you do hit your 16% chance on the turn. It's the 9♠. You're opponent can still beat you if he hits a full house or quads on the river. He can hit a 4♣ (1 out), an 8 (3 outs), a 2 (3 outs) or a 9 (3 outs). He has a total of 10 outs, or a 20% chance of winning. So really, your odds of winning the entire hand if you hit your flush on the turn is around 12.8% (16% * 80%). You multiply by 80% because your opponent will still win 20% of the time (100-20=80).

Now let's say you don't hit your flush on the turn. It's the Q♥. Instead of having 8 outs to hit your flush, you now have 7 because if the Q♠ comes on the river, your opponent will hit a full house and beat your flush. That leaves you with only a 14% chance of improving on the river.

So in total, you have 12.8% + 14% = 26.8%

Our calculations are by 1.2% due to rounding errors, but it's accurate enough for most situations.

- Michael

PTR said:

In your particular example, you have around 25.6% equity when you have a flush draw on the flop and you're up against a set . It is pretty confusing though...

Lets break it down:

You have A♠Q♠
The board on the flop is 2♠4♠8♣
Your opponent has 4♦4♥ for the set.


There are 13 spades total in the deck. You are holding 2 spades and there are 2 spades on the board. There are 9 spades left. The 8♠ will give your opponent a full house, so that doesn't count. On the turn, there are 8 spades in the deck that will give you the flush and not give your opponent a better hand. The chances of you hitting one of those 8 spades on the turn is around 16%.

Let's say you do hit your 16% chance on the turn. It's the 9♠. You're opponent can still beat you if he hits a full house or quads on the river. He can hit a 4♣ (1 out), an 8 (3 outs), a 2 (3 outs) or a 9 (3 outs). He has a total of 10 outs, or a 20% chance of winning. So really, your odds of winning the entire hand if you hit your flush on the turn is around 12.8% (16% * 80%). You multiply by 80% because your opponent will still win 20% of the time (100-20=80).

Now let's say you don't hit your flush on the turn. It's the Q♥. Instead of having 8 outs to hit your flush, you now have 7 because if the Q♠ comes on the river, your opponent will hit a full house and beat your flush. That leaves you with only a 14% chance of improving on the river.

So in total, you have 12.8% + 14% = 26.8%

Our calculations are by 1.2% due to rounding errors, but it's accurate enough for most situations.

- Michael

Click to expand...

how could the bolded part be true if you hit your flush on the turn he would need to improve to win. and like you said he only has 20 percent chance to improve that makes you an 80% favorite if you turn your flush.

mikejm said:

how could the bolded part be true if you hit your flush on the turn he would need to improve to win. and like you said he only has 20 percent chance to improve that makes you an 80% favorite if you turn your flush.

Click to expand...

I guess I wasn't very clear
What I meant was: your odds of winning the entire hand when you're on the flop are around 12.8% assuming you hit your flush on the turn.

You do have to take into consideration what you put him on. You need to have some kind of read as well. If you think he might have KK and you see a board like :Ks: :Kc: then you may be drawing dead. Not sure if this is the kind of thing you are talking about...

Here is a calculator here on CC you might want to bookmark:

https://www.cardschat.com/poker-odds-calculator.php