Sunday Million - Potential Prop

Quick question as a feeler, what odds would you give me to win the sunday million over the course of 2 years, IE, 104 sunday millions.

Marginal said:

Quick question as a feeler, what odds would you give me to win the sunday million over the course of 2 years, IE, 104 sunday millions.

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Will you participate 104 sunday million? its about 22'360 bucks and. you'll be profitable there if you have decent skill. I'll do only if I can afford 22'360$, Good luck

im pretty sure i can afford it, and im talking about winning not just being profitable

WAG - 35-1

Marginal said:

im pretty sure i can afford it, and im talking about winning not just being profitable

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Excellent! I love the confidence you bring to the table. Any day can be yours! Take it down!

You have to be the damned lucky to win him)

winning at least once with those amount of tries 66% of a first place.

50-1?

I reckon 5000 to 1 as your odds each game will remain the same long shot but not impossible good luck

I’d take 5000 - 1 please

Well, I am not very knowledgeable of your poker abilities, but here's what I'm thinking.

So, about 6000 join the Sunday Million each week. There are 104 weeks in two years. 6000/104 = 57


So, that would be 1 in 57, however you seem to be better than the average runner in the tournament. I'd predict an ROI of say 10-20%. So, lets say 15%. 0.85*57 = 48.5


So that's 1 in 48.5. But, I'd predict that your weaker than the average player in the final table. That has large implications on your odds. I'll guess that once your in the final table, you'll only win about 7%. (11/7)*48.5 = 76


So, using my random calcultions, I'd guess 76:1

good luck for evreyone want play it

if you've played 104 sunday million tournaments you have a good chance of winning. you have a lot of experience which will help with winning. Someone like me who has only played the sunday million once will probably not win but hoping to at least get in the money.

Ducky has more chance than you.
(odds on that would have been better last week).

Hindsight innit

FWIW I do have a bet on for this but can’t really discuss anymore than it’s worth a lot more than the Sunday million itself

Well, you have the game & the rarified air of success doesn't cause you to pucker up, so I like your chances.

6,000 runners each week, what makes ypu think you have any chance at all.You have as much chance of winning that tournament as winning the Main Event, wsop.
Realistically I give you zero chance at either.

150-1 odds each game. Marginal puts up $1000 per game, he loses and Potential gets the $1000, he wins, Potential pays him $150,000. Run it 104 times. This here is feasible, no one gets decapitated financially. Marginal goes on a run, Potential can lay the action off.

okeedokalee said:

6,000 runners each week, what makes ypu think you have any chance at all.You have as much chance of winning that tournament as winning the Main Event, WSOP.
Realistically I give you zero chance at either.

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Well it’s kinda simple really. I believe in these big field tourneys my ROI is fairly substantial (wouldn’t be out the question to be 50% in this particular tournament) so over the course of the 2 years even if I don’t win, the amount I expect to win from the tournament on avg from that time period should cover the portion of the bet on my side or most of it. So in that sense it’s a very cheap angle from my side with a massive potential uptick.


So if in the rare chance I do win, that’s great, if I don’t I don’t actually lose much. Bet economics are vastly in my favour.

Apologies bro, just saw some of your results.You have the potential to go all the way, just wish I had half your skill.Good luck.

Marginal said:

So if in the rare chance I do win, that’s great, if I don’t I don’t actually lose much. Bet economics are vastly in my favour.

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Agree, good for you, but bad for your prop who might have a good chance of making a small win, but still has a small chance of making a massive loss.
Is it anyone we know?

Would you actually be able to collect if you won?
Are the funds held in escrow?
Not just family and friends but even big names start to wiggle when the big payouts become more likely.
eg Vanessa Selbst and Jason Mercier,
(or Phil Ivey and Crockfords Club and Borgata casino, the economics weren't quite as they first appeared).

If you wouldn't actually collect the full amount then the economics are less in your favour.

For now I need to keep the opposite side confidential but I don’t think there would be collection issues. The person isn’t famous in a poker sense but is extremely wealthy so I really think there’s close to zero risk involved although no escrow

okeedokalee said:

Apologies bro, just saw some of your results.You have the potential to go all the way, just wish I had half your skill.Good luck.

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No worries if I saw this I would also be skeptical

This would be an amazing prop bet for you! As you said even if you lose you would probably make money. Seems silly to bet against a skilled player here since the odds are probably terrible for them, and they would stand to win a minuscule amount compared to you. Almost sounds like a situation with bill Perkins and the staples boys where they have lots of money and are basically doing it to help the other party. I don't think he had any interest in winning their $3000

200-1 odds