success at poker

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pisant

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It's pretty solidly established that, after about 200,000 hands of cash poker, you have a pretty good idea of whether you're profitable or not. But the visible poker in our world is tournaments, and the best I can figure out from the mathheads is that you need to play about 200,000 TOURNAMENTS in order to get the same idea about your tournament profitability. If you play 100 live tournaments a year the way the TV pros do, over 30 years you've played only 3,000, which is a fraction of one percent of the tournaments you need to play in order to iron out variance. It follows that, while a cash pro really can consider himself a pro, the TV tournament pros are people who are essentially on one lifelong hot or cold streak. They owe their entire success at tournaments to VERY short-term variance.

This is probably why the real poker pros lead quiet, under-the-radar lives playing the $200/$400 NL cash tables in Vegas, and why it is rumoured that large numbers of them have refused to become TV tournament pros. Another reason is that becoming publicly visible on TV would scare off all the fish at their cash games, but, to a true poker player, what would be of value is real success rather than a glitzy Miley Cyrus twerking public image.

Which brings me to me. I want to know whether I really am a good poker player, and, if I am not, whether I can become good. For that reason, I have decided never to play a tournament again. I enjoy tournaments more than cash, but I don't want to be riding either a hot or cold streak for the rest of my born days.

Do people think I'm crazy here?
 
newbie in training

newbie in training

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Imo its a few thousand tourenys uou dont need to play 200,000 tourneys to know LOL but if the field is small it could be a few hundred tourneys

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DaveE

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If you can beat cash games at a level you are rolled for, why not?

As long as you know it's a different game and you can still run into long term downswings.
 
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RickH1983

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To me a good player is a winning player. You can be a good player and make a living at poker playing 1/2 if you wanted. I think you are looking to far into this. If someone is playing 200/400 I am sure they are not going to find a lot of fish. If you are famous I am sure its easier to find games. People want to take you down. However I am a cash game guy. In my opinion tournaments are for people looking for a big score. Play what you like and what makes you the most money. If its cash play cash and play tournaments on the side.
 
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AvaloNNN

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This is probably why the real poker pros lead quiet, under-the-radar lives playing the $200/$400 NL cash tables in Vegas, and why it is rumoured that large numbers of them have refused to become TV tournament pros.

Do people think I'm crazy here?

Not sure if crazy or not, but I could definitely agree with the statement above. Just take Chau Giang as an example.
 
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houtlijm

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just play multitable sit and go online 20 at a time. easy to make 100 a day. 15000 a year
 
jordanbillie

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Here's a tip: if you have to figure out if you are good or not, you're not.
 
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diegogs79

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Hello since they are I believe that there is many way of playing to gain one it is in the tilts sit go to do the important capital and there to be rising if they see that they lose then to return to go down levels successes
 
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lilnewtdog

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just play multitable sit and go online 20 at a time. easy to make 100 a day. 15000 a year

Where are you playing 20 sit n go's at a time. All my sites combined and I might get 5 at a time. Action hasn't been that good even before black Friday.
 
newbie in training

newbie in training

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Its stars for sure haha

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cotta777

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It's pretty solidly established that, after about 200,000 hands of cash poker, you have a pretty good idea of whether you're profitable or not. But the visible poker in our world is tournaments, and the best I can figure out from the mathheads is that you need to play about 200,000 TOURNAMENTS in order to get the same idea about your tournament profitability. If you play 100 live tournaments a year the way the TV pros do, over 30 years you've played only 3,000, which is a fraction of one percent of the tournaments you need to play in order to iron out variance. It follows that, while a cash pro really can consider himself a pro, the TV tournament pros are people who are essentially on one lifelong hot or cold streak. They owe their entire success at tournaments to VERY short-term variance.

This is probably why the real poker pros lead quiet, under-the-radar lives playing the $200/$400 NL cash tables in Vegas, and why it is rumoured that large numbers of them have refused to become TV tournament pros. Another reason is that becoming publicly visible on TV would scare off all the fish at their cash games, but, to a true poker player, what would be of value is real success rather than a glitzy Miley Cyrus twerking public image.

Which brings me to me. I want to know whether I really am a good poker player, and, if I am not, whether I can become good. For that reason, I have decided never to play a tournament again. I enjoy tournaments more than cash, but I don't want to be riding either a hot or cold streak for the rest of my born days.

Do people think I'm crazy here?

I watch some of the american pros in tournaments,
and Im like oh man ex baseball player? ex football player? get real, theirs no way your doing anything different to any of the many winning online players,
if anything you are prob worse due to less hand experience,
and have the money behind you to (A) play a no fear game and to B maintain bankroll management.
if you know the basics and dont fear the bubble adventually your going to run deep in a big tournament with money behind you.

in my oppinion half of the tournament players are just players who aren't scared to get their chips in and take full advantage of players on scared money,
this doesn't make them the best players in the world,
just means the fearless players fare better in big tournaments
 
Arjonius

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Being good at poker should be considered relative to the opponents you play, not on an overall basis. For example, someone who's break-even at mid-stakes is obviously average at that level. The same person would be well above average at micros, and well below average at the nosebleeds.

As for how much you have to play to know if you're better or worse than your competition, that depends how much better or worse you are.
 
WeenieSVK

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Where are you playing 20 sit n go's at a time. All my sites combined and I might get 5 at a time. Action hasn't been that good even before black Friday.

easily on pokerstars micro games. But yea its harder for you guys from US, but I didnt know that the traffic is too low on pokersites for you.
 
newbie in training

newbie in training

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A 1.10 9 man sng starts up every mjnute on bovada its not that bad lol

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WeenieSVK

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200,000?

People have time for that?

I think its complete nonsense. I bet nobody on planet has 200 000 played MTTs...

Its more than 50 MTTs per day, every single day for 10 years...
 
Arjonius

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I think its complete nonsense. I bet nobody on planet has 200 000 played MTTs...

Its more than 50 MTTs per day, every single day for 10 years...
I don't know if anyone has played that many, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility as entirely impossible. I only did it a couple of times, but I have played over 50 in a day.

I wouldn't say it was easy, but it wasn't tremendously hard either, and it would have been easier for someone who can handle a lot of tables at once than I can. Add in choosing games with smaller fields and fast structures, and I'm confident there are players who have played over 100 in a day, and quite possibly a good deal more.
 
ChipEaterMan

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It's pretty solidly established that, after about 200,000 hands of cash poker, you have a pretty good idea of whether you're profitable or not. But the visible poker in our world is tournaments, and the best I can figure out from the mathheads is that you need to play about 200,000 TOURNAMENTS in order to get the same idea about your tournament profitability. If you play 100 live tournaments a year the way the TV pros do, over 30 years you've played only 3,000, which is a fraction of one percent of the tournaments you need to play in order to iron out variance. It follows that, while a cash pro really can consider himself a pro, the TV tournament pros are people who are essentially on one lifelong hot or cold streak. They owe their entire success at tournaments to VERY short-term variance.

This is probably why the real poker pros lead quiet, under-the-radar lives playing the $200/$400 NL cash tables in Vegas, and why it is rumoured that large numbers of them have refused to become TV tournament pros. Another reason is that becoming publicly visible on TV would scare off all the fish at their cash games, but, to a true poker player, what would be of value is real success rather than a glitzy Miley Cyrus twerking public image.

Which brings me to me. I want to know whether I really am a good poker player, and, if I am not, whether I can become good. For that reason, I have decided never to play a tournament again. I enjoy tournaments more than cash, but I don't want to be riding either a hot or cold streak for the rest of my born days.

Do people think I'm crazy here?

You need to play about 200,000 TOURNAMENTS in order to get the same idea about your tournament profitability, wow that's a lot of time you have to invest there.
 
WeenieSVK

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I don't know if anyone has played that many, but I wouldn't dismiss the possibility as entirely impossible. I only did it a couple of times, but I have played over 50 in a day.

I wouldn't say it was easy, but it wasn't tremendously hard either, and it would have been easier for someone who can handle a lot of tables at once than I can. Add in choosing games with smaller fields and fast structures, and I'm confident there are players who have played over 100 in a day, and quite possibly a good deal more.

Yea but you also have to remember that pokerstars is here only from 2002 I guess. And I bet there was MUCH less MTTs in 2002, 2003, 2004... than its today and if you would like to play 50 MTTs daily, you probably had to play almost every type of game and buyin. And again its 10 years of playing every single day. No rest, no holliday, no free weekend, no break :) I literally HOPE that nobody has 200 000 MTTs played :D
 
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lilnewtdog

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easily on pokerstars micro games. But yea its harder for you guys from US, but I didnt know that the traffic is too low on pokersites for you.[/QUOTE

You're playing in different buy ins I take it. My mind is so fixated on keeping my buy ins the same, doesn't mess with the odds and profit, I think everyone does that. 20 at a time that's impressive I don't get how that can be done, multiple monitors and big screens I guess. Some sites don't even pop up when Its my turn makes it hard to play more than 4 at a time, sites conflict and pop up when its not my turn. Still with all that I still don't see how 20 at a time.

Did you ever play 10 or 5 at a time to find out if you percentage of winning gets higher. When you find the fish it helps winning Percentage.
 
steveiam

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You need to play about 200,000 TOURNAMENTS in order to get the same idea about your tournament profitability, wow that's a lot of time you have to invest there.

I think you may have gone broke to many times to reach that amount only to find out that your not that good at MTT's
 
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lilnewtdog

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50 a day doesn't mean 20 at a time. You'd be done in 2 to 3 hours.
 
Arjonius

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Yea but you also have to remember that pokerstars is here only from 2002 I guess. And I bet there was MUCH less MTTs in 2002, 2003, 2004... than its today and if you would like to play 50 MTTs daily, you probably had to play almost every type of game and buyin. And again its 10 years of playing every single day. No rest, no holliday, no free weekend, no break :) I literally HOPE that nobody has 200 000 MTTs played :D
If you change the 50 per day to 100, the 10 years becomes 5. Factor in two days off per week, and 5 becomes 7. That only takes us back to 2006, when the poker boom was already well under way, with plenty of sites and games available.

As I said, I don't know if anyone has actually played 200k. I'm not saying that anyone has done it (fwiw, I hope not too), just that I'm not prepared to rule out the possibility completely.
 
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lilnewtdog

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A 1.10 9 man sng starts up every mjnute on bovada its not that bad lol

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WHat the double up games? I'm so sick of double up games. Why do people play em. When I make top 3 I win most of the time so its a waist to play double ups. Play 10 games make it in 6 and up a dollar that sucks. 3 firsts in 10 regular games up 5. Its seems to be a no brainer.
 
loafes

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I don't think you need anywhere near 200k tournaments to know if you're a profitable tournament player. But even though you may need to play 1000s to know your true ROI it should be apparent before then weather you are a good tournament player. Plus you only really need 1 or 2 big scores lifetime to be a big success.
 
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