Some thoughts about variance and RNG

These days i frequently see people complaining from RNG and rigged games thinking that online games are arranged. Their main argument is that it is not possible to receive same cards several times during MTT or to flop so many flush draws or whatever else only due to variance and that such things do not happen during live play.

But is it really so? I decided to watch a high stakes cash game with famous players and see how it goes. I watched old game from poker after dark or more specifically the part one and part 2 of the 200 000$ cash game between David Peat, Eli Elezra, David Oppenheim, Patrik Antonius, Phil Ivey and Tom Dwan. Here is what i saw without the intention to note everything that happens:

1. Same player got JJ at least 3 times.
2. At least 3 times there were cases when two players got 2 cards from same suit and had flush draw at the same time during a hand.
3. Several times strong hands like AQ and KK were beaten by much weaker ones.
4. The two players on the table which had won wsop bracelets (phil ivey and eli elezra) lost over 200 000 each.

They played around 15 hands in each of the episodes so considering 5 episodes in each part they played total of 150 hands maybe. Is that game rigged? Did these pro players play in such compromised game? I don't think so/

Now think about it - for how much time you play 150 hands in an MTT online (we do not even speak about multi table here)? In normal circumstances no more than 3 hours which is just one MTT. My advise is to watch such games between pro poker players and compare what you see in the same hands count during online play.

I will focus on improving my game instead of complaining from RNG and bad beats. What is your opinion? Did you make such comparisons between live and online game?

Certainly the variance exists, that is clear, but blame the software for it, or think there is something wrong, is something else.
I'm always on live tables, and since online things happen absurd, if we analyze them as a whole, this happens everywhere, I advise always focusing on the game in question, and everything will turn out well

Seems to be a waste of time looking at what was dealt. Unless you have huge hand sample, it doesn't mean much. Last paragraph puts it back on track.

Sorry adding to that that’s is players going all once they have lost a few hands. Eg they played k4 against your ace in an earlier hand so there lower in chips or maybe they chase outs and folded either way there down a bit this is when the 2 Nd chance pattern I was talking about happens not just from start of play ect

I agree with variance comments but would like to put out there that I’ve seen patterns have any of you played 3 handed in the jackpot system most sites have it now. Nearly always including a players who lose connection are all in due to blinds or just all in normally win I don’t call it a bad beats heads up with any two cards but the pattern is there. It is regular to see a player runner runner flush without suited whole cards as well as straights not connected and even trips made on the board to get there second chance life. Variance over 10 years playing online the 2 Nd chance tourney pattern is to often to be varianceSorry adding to that that’s is players going all once they have lost a few hands. Eg they played k4 against your ace in an earlier hand so there lower in chips or maybe they chase outs and folded either way there down a bit this is when the 2 Nd chance pattern I was talking about happens not just from start of play ect

I agree with variance comments but would like to put out there that I’ve seen patterns have any of you played 3 handed in the jackpot system most sites have it now. Nearly always including a players who lose connection are all in due to blinds or just all in after losing a few hands win there all in I call it 2nd chance pattern. I don’t call any hand bad beats in this style play. heads up with any two cards can be correct in the circumstance but the 2 Nd chance pattern is there. It is regular to see a player runner runner flush without suited whole cards as well as straights not connected whole cards eg k2 and even hit trips made by on the board pair to get there second chance life. Variance over 10 years playing online the 2 Nd chance pattern when a player down and out is to often to be variance.

neptun1914 said:

These days i frequently see people complaining from RNG and rigged games thinking that online games are arranged. Their main argument is that it is not possible to receive same cards several times during MTT or to flop so many flush draws or whatever else only due to variance and that such things do not happen during live play.

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One of the things we forget about online VS live is the sheer number of hands seen. This accelerates the likelihood of seeing things that we deem unlikely.

Variance?>>>I call it what it is>>"Blind Luck"

aidos22 said:

Sorry adding to that that’s is players going all once they have lost a few hands. Eg they played k4 against your ace in an earlier hand so there lower in chips or maybe they chase outs and folded either way there down a bit this is when the 2 Nd chance pattern I was talking about happens not just from start of play ect

Click to expand...

aidos22 said:

I agree with variance comments but would like to put out there that I’ve seen patterns have any of you played 3 handed in the jackpot system most sites have it now. Nearly always including a players who lose connection are all in due to blinds or just all in after losing a few hands win there all in I call it 2nd chance pattern. I don’t call any hand bad beats in this style play. heads up with any two cards can be correct in the circumstance but the 2 Nd chance pattern is there. It is regular to see a player runner runner flush without suited whole cards as well as straights not connected whole cards eg k2 and even hit trips made by on the board pair to get there second chance life. Variance over 10 years playing online the 2 Nd chance pattern when a player down and out is to often to be variance.

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It's been a "hoot" to listen to, and to watch chats lines when people start in with talk concerning "variances" and such>>>Cracks me up!(to say the least). People REALLY need to "build a bridge" and get over their arrogant thoughts of being a "better player" than others. The game of poker(and many OTHER card games) are based upon the RANDOM dealing out of 52 cards. How can there NOT be a LARGE amount of LUCK involved? I'd say between at least 75%, and closer to 80% or higher! Anyone can "say" what they want about the topic, but C'MON>>>have a bit of humbleness and humility, because you're not "outplaying" others because you're getting "dealt better cards". I am a big enough person to admit the fact that SURE, there's some "skills" involved in poker, but FIRST OFF you need to be getting dealt decent cards, or you're not going to be able to win many hands...certainly not going to be able to "shove, or bluff" off people with WEAK cards, so unless you're willing to risk playing weak cards to flops just to TRY and match some flops to your WEAK cards??>>>WELL, you're not going to win many hands at the sites I play, because people see right through that type of playing. I have had a few people that AREN'T delusional about online poker and agree with my "thoughts". Are some people luckier than others?>>>UMMMM>>>YES INDEED! I watch that "scenario" happen time and time again. I can play in several tournaments and watch the SAME people getting dealt GREAT cards most of the time, and when they DO play weaker cards to flops, they seem to get matches to THEIR cards WAYYYY more often than most, and certainly more often than I do! So, does that make them a "better" player?>>>NO! It's called LUCK! If I was dealt great cards on a consistent basis like I watch others getting dealt, I would certainly be able to "play" more hands and such...BUT, that still doesn't mean you're going to get "matches" on flops...well, UNLESS you're "LUCKIER" than most! It's NOT rocket science and there's DEFINATELY no "right way" to play poker, nor are there ANY "variances" which can be "figured" out!>>>It's a random game of CHANCE, soooo, good "LUCK" out there in your travels!

Good luck in the hand did not withdraw. bankroll not to tweak the game gets tight. Seems logical.