re: Poker & Running Bad, How To Cope
Originally Posted by BovadaReg
My thought process sometimes is that if I get sucked out on because I shoved on the turn and someone is calling with a gut shot and hits in on the river then I could have played it more conservative and maybe gotten away from my losing hand after the river hits pending reads and chip utility
If they have 4 cards that make their hand and 1 card to come, they are roughly 4/46 or about 9% to make their hand... if they are only 2:1 on their money and no money behind for implied odds
...they are making a mistake. More often than not you are going to rake those chips right in....and if you don't you still made the right play. Think of it this way...
You have 100 chips.... 10 times you push all in against the gut shot guy and get called each time.. you win 9 times and lose once. you make 900$, (not counting what is already in the pot) and lose 100 for a net profit of 800$ by pushing...
if you bet 40 on the turn, and he calls with his gut shot every time, he makes his hand the same number of times, but you're only netting 320 chips... and moreover, you're allowing him to draw cheaper with mroe implied odds AND you give him fold equity on your hand if a different card comes (still scary to your hand) and you fold the better hand if he bluffs. Its best to get all your chips in when you're a big favorite. To think of it one more way, you wouldn't change the way you played if:
You hold AcAd, you raise and get reraised by a donkey for half your stack, you push all in and he calls and turns over 7s2h, and flops a full house.... its the same concept.