Royal Flush - What are the approx. odds?

Poker Orifice

Poker Orifice

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I'm curious... what are the ~ odds of making a RoyalFlush in NLHE?
I understand there are many variables and when you look this up online most don't take any into consideration (typically it's calculated as if 'every' player goes to showdown in Every hand.
But what I'd like to know is.... if a player plays (say for example) 1 million hands in a cashgame setting (6-max) say with an avg. VPIP for typical reg. How many Royal Flushes could they 'expect' to hit?

I've documented every Royal Flush I've made since 2010 (didn't keep track before then)... but I don't have any idea of what my total database size is (changed computers many times over the years, lost many saved HH's over the years & also play on some sites w/o HUD).

I read somewhere today (on '4') that you could expect to hit one every 650,000 hands... but I don't think that's even close. Isn't it closer to 250k?
 
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moosepaw

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Just to be clear on a point, the 650,000 hands per royal flush comes from your hole cards plus the flop. 4 5-card hands divided by ALL possible combinations of 5 card hands is equal to 4 /
2598960 , which if every hand has equal probability, allows us to say that the probability of a given hand to be one of 4 specific choices (in this case the 4 cases of royal flush), is the latter fraction. If we invert that fraction, we get
649743.026633, which is interpreted as number of hands per royal flush.
 
Poker Orifice

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Just to be clear on a point, the 650,000 hands per royal flush comes from your hole cards plus the flop. 4 5-card hands divided by ALL possible combinations of 5 card hands is equal to 4 /
2598960 , which if every hand has equal probability, allows us to say that the probability of a given hand to be one of 4 specific choices (in this case the 4 cases of royal flush), is the latter fraction. If we invert that fraction, we get
649743.026633, which is interpreted as number of hands per royal flush.

I read somewhere today (on '4') that you could expect to hit one every 650,000 hands... but I don't think that's even close. Isn't it closer to 250k?


To clarify, (on '4') is a reference to another forum (which I did not want to post the actual name here on Cardschat).... and the 650,000 hands was a number that was mentioned by just one person & I personally don't have a clue if that is even close to being accurate.
My question here was asking if someone on here knows what that number might be closer to
 
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