Realizing that Straight & Flush Draws are Fool's Gold

#1 August 11th, 2019, 3:13 AM

I've reflecting a bit more about strategy (more on cash side than tournament side) and realizing a couple of things... and I'd love to see if there is a discussion that can be generated here.

One of the thoughts that occurred to me is that I'd say in 90% of the time, straight and flush draws are an all-or-nothing affair. If you flop a set or a pair, there is always opportunities to improve on a made hand to something significantly better. A pair can become just about anything post-flop... and similarly, one can say a similar thing with the set.

But straight and flush draws are usually one of those... either you hit it, or you are dealing with a high card hand, which is kinda junk. Occasionally, you might hit a pair as well (and those are the best scenarios... if you hit top pair AND you have a straight or flush draw as well). But you can only draw to a straight and a flush... and if you happen to hit it on the flop or the turn, you really can't improve on it. But you can lose to a full house or a 4 of a kind. If we have a straight or a flush, a villain can improve their hand while you really can't.

So with that recognition... the straight and flush draws aren't quite nearly as appealing as I once thought. The payoff is not nearly worth the price of a draw, since there is such limited upside. It does change the way I play those hands in cash games... both on the draw, and even defending against those draws. Important to punish those who want to draw for those hands, but not to ever pay them once they get it.

Now... I do believe that while this may be true for cash games... but I think tourneys are different where all-in plays play a much bigger role in the game. Often times, when you are close to being pot-committed, and jamming a pot with a made hand is a legitimate option... being able to draw to a straight and especially a flush can be profitable... since you already have fold equity on your side + you have extra outs to beat the sets and 2 pairs of the world if they do call. It kinda adds weight to your jams on the pot, and makes the whole endeavour interesting.

Thoughts?

#2 August 11th, 2019, 3:35 AM

Valid points on draws, improvement vs improving a set, etc.

Draws are worthwhile, if the risk/reward is there. On the other hand, 2 pairs, a set, can be their own trap, limit opportunities to making a full house, or better. Played enough to see my set get crushed when that #$#$ straight or flush draw hits. Good topic, see what others think.

#3 August 11th, 2019, 5:19 AM

Straight & Flush is the biggest evil of poker. Realizing that Straight & Flush Draws are Fool's Gold

#4 August 11th, 2019, 5:42 AM

Some people overplay them and chase even when not getting nearly correct odds. In that case yes I agree they are fools gold.

If you are deep enough it does not have to be all in or nothing. Against less experienced players and especially in position you can still win hand on later streets without hitting by representing a good story.

Straight and flushes are part of the game you cannot take them out of your game. If you do so you will be missing out value from them and will find it very hard to be successful.

Punishing draws can be dangerous if done with weaker hands like one pair and weak two pairs. Sets and stronger two pair can maximise their value. Not to mention on a flop one pair is basically flipping to flush and an overcard.

They are just like pocket Jacks many people overplay Jacks and get in trouble and say it is impossible to play Jacks. But you cannot simply go around folding pocket Jacks as you miss value against lower pairs and 2 overcard situations when they miss.

#5 August 11th, 2019, 6:24 AM

I'd say flushes more than straights.

#6 August 11th, 2019, 8:25 AM

In my opinion, a Flash Draw is an easy-to-read hand and if you close a flash and a card is paired on the board and your opponent is going online, you should seriously think about what to do !!! You must be able to throw a strong hand !!!

#7 August 11th, 2019, 3:39 PM

It sucks...
If you slow play, your hand turns much "face-up"... and play aggressively, trying to extract from some other draw, makes they usually fold.
Ps: in the picture, both folded in the flop... sad.

#8 August 11th, 2019, 7:01 PM

Suited connectors are valuable
Yes more than half of the time you don’t connect but then then you should have the confidence to air bluff against passive tight villain. Again it’s depends on table villains and your image to your table

#9 August 11th, 2019, 9:13 PM

If you (or others) often fold when the flush/straight comes in I start to bluff more often. Easy game.

#10 August 12th, 2019, 1:48 AM

Flushes and straights are just hands and should be played according to the odds of each, sometimrs they are just the bare bone odds, other times you get highet odds,As long as you play them cautiously and keep yout wits about you, you will be all right

#11 August 12th, 2019, 5:47 AM

Originally Posted by joeisi

Some people overplay them and chase even when not getting nearly correct odds. In that case yes I agree they are fools gold.

Bingo! To hit your flush with 4 cards to it on the flop you are looking at around 36% equity. Now that means your opponent is still going to fade your draw 2/3s of the time. It's easy to forget these odds and just remember flopping tons of draws and missing them all - while just as easily forgetting the ones you drill when you needed them most Realizing that Straight & Flush Draws are Fool's Gold

For instance, I got it all in with KQ of hearts on a Jh - 10h - 6s flop - check raised the flop, got 3 bet and so I jammed and got snap called by Js9s - I couldn't believe it, thought my over cards were likely dead to QQ or possibly KK, AA - anyhow, all the outs in the world from the flop and I bricked out - giving away about 70% of my stack.

The flip side to this - The tournament played on - I made the final table - semi bluff shoved on the turn and happened to get tank-called and drilled my draw on the river for a huge double up catapulting me into a solid 2nd place - this happened yesterday afternoon and I remember well the monster draw that missed - but for the life of me, I have no idea what I hit to double up at the final table...I think it was a backdoor flush but cant say for sure.

Anyhow - as usual I am ranting - the point is draws are just that - DRAWS - in other words, are cards you need to hit to have a made hand - you are currently losing, you have no showdown value and will not get there most of the time.

Best advice I can give to you - play the odds according to bet sizing and know when to fold - dont chase the rabbit too deep...that hole goes on forever.

Good luck! Hope some of this helps

#12 August 12th, 2019, 2:49 PM

Originally Posted by Jon Poker

Anyhow - as usual I am ranting - the point is draws are just that - DRAWS - in other words, are cards you need to hit to have a made hand - you are currently losing, you have no showdown value and will not get there most of the time.

Best advice I can give to you - play the odds according to bet sizing and know when to fold - dont chase the rabbit too deep...that hole goes on forever.

Good luck! Hope some of this helps

I think this is exactly my point. Chasing flush (and especially straight draws) by overpaying is the quickest way to lose money in the long term. Your odds are low to get the hand in the first place, and even if you get it, it might not even be the strongest hand at showdown. I can't count how many times I hit my flush on the turn, only to see the river pair the board and then I lose to a full house. Or in hitting in my flush & pairing the board to complete someone else's full house on a draw. I am sure I've been on the other side of that... but it's really quite annoying.

For me, it will always be a part of my game. I'll always be trying to punish people for going for the draws, and I'll fold on the flop if the odds are not in my favour of getting it. It's simply not worth chasing. Will I fold on a turn or river bluff if there is a possibility that someone hit their flush or straight? Maybe. It depends on my stack size, the story that's being told by the betting patterns, size the bluff. But I do believe that I'll come out ahead in just recognizing the limitations of the flush or straight draw and ensure that I play the odds correctly.

Thanks for the points raised, everyone. Definitely gave me more to chew on. This is a great community!

#13 August 12th, 2019, 3:28 PM

This is why I favor Omaha 8. Junk cards plus straight an flush draws win pots. Hit the ace to five straight and you can't lose.

#14 August 15th, 2019, 9:38 PM

Any draw is equity. You just need to be able to implement it and not overplay. Sounds simple, but only in words.

#15 August 16th, 2019, 9:27 AM

Flush is good as Gold for me but chasing flush without holding the ace is a fool.

#16 August 17th, 2019, 2:11 AM

I think you have to control the pot size by donkbet or betting out. I don’t like draw calling. This way I think you have a bette chance to bluff if you miss

#17 August 17th, 2019, 9:49 AM

draws are bad risk in early stage bud

#18 August 19th, 2019, 6:56 PM

The conventional wisdom is that being suited with your hand only adds approximately two percent of value to a hand. But it doesn't feel that way. I think that in today's poker, you almost have to bet the hand, as if you have it, before you have it, if that makes sense. I think flushes and sets should be the goal for most players, in terms of continuing with hands, instead of being in a situation, with a pair, that you don't feel comfortable in.

#19 August 19th, 2019, 7:16 PM

Draws can indeed by tricky situations. I think there are at least 2 mistakes amateurs make on draws. First, they forget that it they call a flop bet, there is a very high chance that they will need to call a 2nd bet on the turn. The other problem is that it's hard to conceal a flush, so it's harder to get paid off on those. That makes it really difficult to figure out the implied odds. Straights are a little easier to conceal since most boards of 5 community cards have at least 1 straight possibilities.

#20 August 26th, 2019, 2:13 PM

It very much depends on the particular situation. Yes it is true that many people overestimate the potential of straight and flush draws especially low card flushes (which are vulnerable to higher card from the same suit) and gutshots which have slim chances to hit. In some cases though you have good enough odds to bet on a straight or flush draw (especially potential nut flushes and open ended straight draws). Just like with every other draw in poker everything depends on odds, stacks and particular situation.

#21 August 26th, 2019, 6:22 PM

Definitely flushes... i wouldn't agree on the straigths though,probably cause i hit a lot of them Realizing that Straight & Flush Draws are Fool's Gold

)

#22 August 26th, 2019, 6:34 PM

Pot odds are the key, need to calculate if the chase is worth it.

#23 August 27th, 2019, 2:01 AM

Flushes and straights are like apples and oranges. Making flush hands, which are second to only full house hands, should be the goal of every player, especially in tournaments. If you want to talk about fool's gold, I think that set-mining, especially with baby pairs, is a far costlier tactic than chasing flushes and straights.

#24 August 27th, 2019, 5:46 AM

Originally Posted by Deedgee

Flushes and straights are like apples and oranges. Making flush hands, which are second to only full house hands, should be the goal of every player, especially in tournaments. If you want to talk about fool's gold, I think that set-mining, especially with baby pairs, is a far costlier tactic than chasing flushes and straights.

What do you mean by set mining, because for example calling a raise with a small pair before the flop and calling a raise with an unimproved small pair after the flop are two very different things. Sets can be a very good way to double up in both cash games and tournaments because they have the stealth advantage over the flushes and straights. If you suspect your opponent is raising with a hand like AK or AQ, calling and seeing a flop even with 22 is not a bad move, in my opinion, but calling with a 23 suited is. However, chasing anything without having the right pot odds or at least implied pot odds is a leak that most of us should be aware of.

#25 August 27th, 2019, 5:47 AM

if I play cash games and I have a lot of outs to give out a good combination, then I play and take risks to win, I try not to pay a lot of money to players in the bank so as not to lose a lot especially if players go all-in for straight flush draw because he rarely falls out

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Realizing that Straight & Flush Draws are Fool's Gold

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