question for Zach

i suck at math. what are the odds of this happening? this is four consecutive hands. notice my hole cards.

pokerstars Game #18853567225: Tournament #95929626, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/07/15 - 23:50:26 (ET)
Table '95929626 1' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ogrenomore (1440 in chips)
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 (3180 in chips)
Seat 4: gooddog123 (1500 in chips)
Seat 5: Zhurrie (1500 in chips)
Seat 6: calliekay (1440 in chips)
Seat 7: kd25 (1440 in chips)
Seat 8: rob77143 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: Chiefer77 (1500 in chips)
gooddog123: posts small blind 10
Zhurrie: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chiefer77 [Kc Ks]
calliekay: calls 20
kd25: folds
rob77143: folds
Chiefer77: raises 80 to 100
ogrenomore: folds
pokerpappa01: folds
gooddog123: calls 90
Zhurrie: calls 80
calliekay: folds
*** FLOP *** [8s Ah 4s]
gooddog123: bets 220
Zhurrie: calls 220
Chiefer77: folds
*** TURN *** [8s Ah 4s] [4h]
gooddog123: bets 600
Zhurrie: calls 600
*** RIVER *** [8s Ah 4s 4h] [7c]
gooddog123: checks
Zhurrie: checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
gooddog123: shows [Qc Kh] (a pair of Fours)
Zhurrie: shows [As Jh] (two pair, Aces and Fours)
Zhurrie collected 1960 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1960 | Rake 0
Board [8s Ah 4s 4h 7c]
Seat 1: ogrenomore folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: gooddog123 (small blind) showed [Qc Kh] and lost with a pair of Fours
Seat 5: Zhurrie (big blind) showed [As Jh] and won (1960) with two pair, Aces and Fours
Seat 6: calliekay folded before Flop
Seat 7: kd25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: rob77143 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Chiefer77 folded on the Flop

PokerStars Game #18853587524: Tournament #95929626, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/07/15 - 23:51:31 (ET)
Table '95929626 1' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: ogrenomore (1440 in chips)
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 (3180 in chips)
Seat 4: gooddog123 (580 in chips)
Seat 5: Zhurrie (2540 in chips)
Seat 6: calliekay (1420 in chips)
Seat 7: kd25 (1440 in chips)
Seat 8: rob77143 (1500 in chips)
Seat 9: Chiefer77 (1400 in chips)
Zhurrie: posts small blind 10
calliekay: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chiefer77 [Ks Kd]
kd25: folds
rob77143: calls 20
Chiefer77: raises 100 to 120
ogrenomore: calls 120
pokerpappa01: folds
gooddog123: folds
Zhurrie: folds
calliekay: calls 100
rob77143: folds
*** FLOP *** [9h 8h Ad]
calliekay: bets 80
Chiefer77: calls 80
ogrenomore: calls 80
*** TURN *** [9h 8h Ad] [4h]
calliekay: bets 160
Chiefer77: folds
ogrenomore: calls 160
*** RIVER *** [9h 8h Ad 4h] [9c]
calliekay: bets 360
ogrenomore: calls 360
*** SHOW DOWN ***
calliekay: shows [Ah Qh] (a flush, Ace high)
ogrenomore: mucks hand
calliekay collected 1670 from pot
pokerpappa01 said, "nh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1670 | Rake 0
Board [9h 8h Ad 4h 9c]
Seat 1: ogrenomore mucked [7h As]
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: gooddog123 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Zhurrie (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: calliekay (big blind) showed [Ah Qh] and won (1670) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 7: kd25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: rob77143 folded before Flop
Seat 9: Chiefer77 folded on the Turn


PokerStars Game #18853607654: Tournament #95929626, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/07/15 - 23:52:35 (ET)
Table '95929626 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: ogrenomore (720 in chips)
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 (3180 in chips)
Seat 4: gooddog123 (580 in chips)
Seat 5: Zhurrie (2530 in chips)
Seat 6: calliekay (2370 in chips)
Seat 7: kd25 (1440 in chips)
Seat 8: rob77143 (1480 in chips)
Seat 9: Chiefer77 (1200 in chips)
calliekay: posts small blind 10
kd25: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chiefer77 [7d Qd]
rob77143: folds
Chiefer77: folds
ogrenomore: folds
pokerpappa01: calls 20
gooddog123: raises 40 to 60
Zhurrie: folds
calliekay: folds
kd25: calls 40
pokerpappa01: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [5d 7h Qs]
kd25: checks
pokerpappa01: bets 100
gooddog123: raises 240 to 340
kd25: folds
pokerpappa01: calls 240
*** TURN *** [5d 7h Qs] [3s]
pokerpappa01: bets 180
gooddog123: calls 180 and is all-in
*** RIVER *** [5d 7h Qs 3s] [Js]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
pokerpappa01: shows [Qh Kc] (a pair of Queens)
gooddog123: shows [Jd Ac] (a pair of Jacks)
pokerpappa01 collected 1230 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1230 | Rake 0
Board [5d 7h Qs 3s Js]
Seat 1: ogrenomore folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 showed [Qh Kc] and won (1230) with a pair of Queens
Seat 4: gooddog123 showed [Jd Ac] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 5: Zhurrie (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: calliekay (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: kd25 (big blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 8: rob77143 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: Chiefer77 folded before Flop (didn't bet)


PokerStars Game #18853625467: Tournament #95929626, $3.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2008/07/15 - 23:53:32 (ET)
Table '95929626 1' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 1: ogrenomore (720 in chips)
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 (3830 in chips)
Seat 5: Zhurrie (2530 in chips)
Seat 6: calliekay (2360 in chips)
Seat 7: kd25 (1380 in chips)
Seat 8: rob77143 (1480 in chips)
Seat 9: Chiefer77 (1200 in chips)
kd25: posts small blind 10
rob77143: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Chiefer77 [Kd Ks]
Chiefer77: raises 100 to 120
ogrenomore: folds
pokerpappa01: folds
Zhurrie: folds
calliekay: folds
kd25: folds
rob77143: folds
Uncalled bet (100) returned to Chiefer77
Chiefer77 collected 50 from pot
Chiefer77: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 50 | Rake 0
Seat 1: ogrenomore folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: pokerpappa01 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Zhurrie folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: calliekay (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: kd25 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: rob77143 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: Chiefer77 collected (50)

sorry i spelled your name wrong. lol

chiefer77 said:

i suck at math. what are the odds of this happening? this is four consecutive hands. notice my hole cards.

PokerStars Game #18853567225

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Odds of this = 1 in 18853567225

chiefer77 said:

2008/07/15

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Assume average poker playing life = 50 years, estimate 18k possible days, = 1 in 18k.

chiefer77 said:

- 23:50:26 (ET)

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Total of 24*60*60 = 86400 seconds in the day, odds of it being then = 1 in 86400

chiefer77 said:

#2 is the button

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Odds of button being #2 = 1 in 9.

...

Basically the point is what do you want to know, odds of being dealt these exact cards 4 in a row? Odds of getting KK in 3 of 4 in a row? Odds of getting pocket pair 3 of 4 in a row? Odds of getting the same pocket pair 3 of 4 in a row? Odds of this happening on a Tuesday?


Remember the odds of getting 9d7c, 5c5d, Ah3s, and 9c2s in a row is (1/52)(1/51)(1/52)(1/51)(1/52)(1/51)(1/52)(1/51) = 1 in 4.9*10^13. Can't do any math until you define the terms of what you consider special about this series.

didn't think i had to elaborate too much on this, lol. you're a pretty smart kid, figured it was obivious what i was asking. that's why i asked you. i did say, notice my hole cards in four consecutive hands. all i wanted to know was what are the odds of getting the the same pocket pair 3 out of 4 consecutive hands.

[x] Cake/Bastard
[ ] I know the odds of this happening.
[x] Zack should know the odds of this happening.
[x] Use a calculator noob ( hehe jk)

chiefer77 said:

didn't think i had to elaborate too much on this, lol. you're a pretty smart kid, figured it was obivious what i was asking. that's why i asked you. i did say, notice my hole cards in four consecutive hands. all i wanted to know was what are the odds of getting the the same pocket pair 3 out of 4 consecutive hands.

Click to expand...

lol well obvious I was being a bit sarcastic with all those, I just didn't know whether you were looking for KK+, or whatever. Anyway, odds of same PP 3 out of 4 hands:

Odds of it happening 3 in a row are: (3/51)*(4/52)(3/51)*(4/52)(3/51) = 1 in 830,297. Since there are 4 ways of making 3/4 (123, 124, 134, 234) multiply by 4 and we get 1 in 207,574.25 hands, or around once every 210k hands.

zachvac said:

lol well obvious I was being a bit sarcastic with all those, I just didn't know whether you were looking for KK+, or whatever. Anyway, odds of same PP 3 out of 4 hands:

Odds of it happening 3 in a row are: (3/51)*(4/52)(3/51)*(4/52)(3/51) = 1 in 830,297. Since there are 4 ways of making 3/4 (123, 124, 134, 234) multiply by 4 and we get 1 in 207,574.25 hands, or around once every 210k hands.

Click to expand...

what do all of those numbers mean

bob_tiger said:

what do all of those numbers mean

Click to expand...

zachvac said:

Odds of it happening 3 in a row are: (3/51)*(4/52)(3/51)*(4/52)(3/51)

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3/51 = odds of second card pairing the first thus the first hand being a pocket pair. 4/52 is the odds of the first card of the second hand matching the previous rank, ie a King in this example, 3/51 is odds of second card matching the first. Same with the second 2 numbers.

zachvac said:

= 1 in 830,297. Since there are 4 ways of making 3/4 (123, 124, 134, 234) multiply by 4 and we get 1 in 207,574.25 hands, or around once every 210k hands.

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And I think I explained this one here in the post.

I was just check your math skills, I think I will let you handle the math problems, that will be best for all of us.

zachvac said:

or around once every 210k hands.

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thanks man, i did pick up on your sarcasm by the way. lol. i was just curious is all. it's never happened to me before, as i don't get to devote as much time to playing as some of the rest of us.

zachvac said:

around once every 210k hands.

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Which is what? once a month for Zach? :biggrin:

zachvac said:

Since there are 4 ways of making 3/4 (123, 124, 134, 234) multiply by 4 and we get 1 in 207,574.25 hands, or around once every 210k hands.

Click to expand...

It's going to have to be 1 in 415k because if it was 123 or 234 chiefer would have lost his mind and not been able to post this here. If he did manage to post he would have had a different Q. I doubt he would say, "I was dealt KK 3/4 hands and btw the kings were consecutive and then to top it all off I was dealt Q7. Q7, the computer hand, it was so sick"

wtf zach!

btw I know 2/415k is the better answer to define the rarity.