Question please about odds

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palatinae

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First time poster here. I hope this is the correct venue and if not, please move accordingly.

In a 3 way hold'em pot, the hands were:

J4 suited in diamonds
KK both red
66 both red

Flop was ... J 6 4... all spades

According to poker player hand calculator, the J4 is more of a favorite to suck out versus the two Kings.

My question is "why".

Obviously the J4 could catch the 2 outer of either J just as the KK could catch one of his Kings. In addition the J4 could catch two running 4s, but since that happens like every 900 hands, that very small advantage is far out weighed by the fact that both a J and a K could turn/river and give the Kings the victory.

So, my question is why after the flop in that 3 way hand, is the J4 more likely to win compared to the KK?

Thanks
 
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OneMoreTry

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Sooo...if you only look at J4 and KK:

J4 is ahead with two pairs, Js and 4s
KK has just one pair

There is a mistake in your calculation. Not both the J and the K saves the KKs..only the K does (and any 6, and any other pair ( which is highely unlikely because T and R needs to show the same card).

The J does not, how would it? Another J on Turn or River makes it:

Full House, 3 Js and 2 4s
KK and JJ, two pairs


KK is behind and has 8 Outs - 2 Kings, 3 Sixes and (on the River) 3x the Turn.​
 
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palatinae

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LoL. Thanks for reply. I couldn't see forest due to the trees being in my way. The board was not paired and thus if both a J and K hit the board, the J4 would of course win.

Thanks again.
 
Peppinotom

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J4s is to fold anyway, until you are experienced enough to build up a trap against a player you know. J6s is the most gap you should play, because it is the last hand of the top 30%:nurse:
 
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palatinae

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I had the 66 in the above scenario. After a brutal J on the river, I checked the card player hand calculator to see how far ahead I was post flop. That is when my fyzzy logic caused me to question why the J4 was ahead of the KK in the 3 way pot versus my set of sixes. My simple math told me each hand was about 8% to win. I didn't realize that 2 running flush cards would show up 5% of the time which left me with 79% to win in this 3 way mega pot. For the record, I wouldn't play J4 or J6.
 
vinnie

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Were you all-in before the flop? If not, how did all three of you end up all-in on a monotone flop without a spade amongst you? With a set and a low enough SPR, you probably have to call even if you know you're against the flush, but that "low enough SPR" qualification means you put in way too much of your stack preflop with a small pair.


About the only sane way that I could see this hand making sense is that you're very low in chips, open-shove with the 66s and get called by the KK. Then the J4s hand comes along from the BB because of pot odds (would still require pretty short stacks).

Edit: Were you not all-in? Did this check down? There's a lot of information missing here.
 
MrPokerVerse

MrPokerVerse

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Set of 6's has this hand dominated at 82% to win. The other two hands are about 8% to win. Maybe show a screen shot or confirm this is hand you meant to describe?

J4.png
 
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