Originally Posted by matt20
The coinflip idea explains it pretty well. If someone were to bet you that a coin landed on heads 100x in a row youd put as much $$ on it as they would allow, since the odds are 1/2^100 that no tails turned up. But, that refers to the whole set of the 100 flips. The first 50 flips could be all heads and the next 50 flips all tails. Probability theory really just states that over a significant amount of flips 100s of thousands or millions the overall average of the flips will be very very close to 50% of each in the long run. Each flip is completely random and unchanged by other flips. In regards to sets, I think you hit one like 11%ish or something close to that so you could go a significant amount of time without flopping a set. Also, in saying that, you could flop a set 2,3, or even 4 times in a row. Probability is jsut telling you if you play millions of poker hands you will flop a set around 11% of the time.
Side note: This idea strongly ties into bankroll management imo. I dont think people get the idea of how bad you can run for a drastic period of time. Getting it in in an allin spot where you have 60% equity is huge in poker, but you can have a dry spell where you lose several situations where your a 3:2 or 4:1 favorite in arow. Which shows pretty much why multitabling is important if you can do it successfully because over the larger portion of hands you will run closer to your probabilistic all in EV whereas in the shortterm you can run way under or way over depending on your luck.
I agree completely.
Ok it's just plain fun to twist thoughts and rethink known theories.
For the sake of discussion.
The you is what may be questionable in my mind.
Are the odds tied to anything?
A person, a specific sample size, time frame.
Then isn't it possible that:
Person 1 hits tails 99 times.
Person 2 Hits tails 25 times.
Person 3 Hits tails 76 times.
Person 4 Hits tails 0 times.
Sample size 400
Total Tails 50%
Total Heads 50%
Is this the unknown, where Luck overrides the Statistical Gods.
Person 1 wins the tournament.
Sucks to be person 3.
Can things run in streaks >>> (Sure why not).
Do you run really good at times >>> (Should you be taking more chances when your running good).
Do you run bad at times >>> Should you be taking less chances at these times).
Isn't Luck Anti Statistical?
Just questions and thoughts.
Makes you think doesn't it.