Pot odds confusion

Hi guys,

I have been reading up on pot odds, counting outs and diciding whether or not to call and I have found a lot of conflicting information on the web. Could someone knowledgable please clarify...

For the sake of argument and as a simple example, I hold two high clubs and the flop comes with two of the cards also clubs. I know that 9 outs will make my flush which I would hope to be a winning hand. This gives me approximately a 20% chance to catch my card of the turn so in my view it makes sence to call a bet so long as it would be contributing no more than 20% of the total pot.

For example the pot is $3, villain bets $1 and I have to pay $1 to call.

If I didnt make the flush I would then do the same calculations on the next street.

This I believe is the rule of "2"

Whats the rule of "4" about?

I know they say multiply your outs by 4 to get your % chance to make your hand with two cards to come but after the flop this would have me believe there is around a 36% chance to make my flush and lead me to calling a much larger bet!

Can anybody set this straight for me?

Thanks again in advance!

EDIT...

Since starting this thread I can kind of see where the rule of 4 comes from as you have an extra chance to make your outs. This would make sence if I knew I wouldnt have to pay more money after the turn card came but is that really realistic?

You want the pot odds to be greater than the odds of you making a hand.

So holding AcKc on a board of 10c7h2c you have a 4:1 shot of hitting your flush on the turn. Getting pot odds less than this (3:1)would make it correct to fold, and getting pot odds greater than this (5:1) would be reason to call.

The most common/easy to understand situation for the rule of 4:

You are in a heads up pot and the other player has pushed all in on the flop (using the same hold cards and board from the previous example). If you are getting 4:1 on this call you should normally make it since you only have to win this pot 20% and using the rule of 4 shows you are 36% (you will definitely be seeing the turn & river) to hit your nut flush.

The rule of 4 applies on the flop when there are two cards to come, and you know you'll be seeing both the turn and river (such as in the all-in heads up situation that Likminuts described). You're getting 4:1 to draw to your flush on the flop, but for those odds to apply you need to see BOTH future streets.

The rule of 2 applies to situations with only one card to come. It can be on the turn, or on the flop if you plan to peel but fold on the turn. If you're considering your odds of hitting a flush to be 4:1 on the flop and make a call based on those odds, but you fold on the turn if it doesn't hit, you've called incorrectly. Your odds of it hitting with one card to come are 2:1 according to the rule of 2.

Ok so to clarify, when you are calling an all-in and you KNOW that you will be seeing both turn and river cards with no futher monetary investment you would use the rule of four. You have two cards and chances to make that flush.

It just seems confusing to me to use this method if you are not calling an all-in. To simply call the bet in position would surely tell villain that you are hoping to hit your flush and when that third club doesn't come, why would he give you a free card? ...of course he is going to bet in to you again and make you pay again for that river card. I just can't see the logic of relying on that river card for free when you make your odds calculation post-flop when you are in a multiway pot or there is still money on both sides not yet in the pot. Sure you could take in to account implied odds for the 1/5 times you make the flush on the turn but how are you going to extract more money from villain when there are now three clubs on the board and he knows you have made the flush?

Dealing with one card at a time and using the rule of two on the turn and river just seems to make far more sence but all the poker videos and tutorials still preach this 4 and 2 shit!

PLEASE can someone explain where I am going wrong!

I thought my explanation was pretty simple to understand.

If you are going to see one card, multiply your outs by 2. This will give you the % of hitting one of your outs on the next card to come.

If you are putting money in to see the turn and the river (such as calling an all in against one player), then multiply your outs by 4 to get the % chance of hitting one of your outs on the next 2 cards to comes.

I fully understand what you wrote and have seen similar written and talked about on countless occasions and have also seen the rule of TWO used on the turn and river seperately.

I understand the rule of 2 and 4 but just don't think it stands up to scrutiny. I suck at poker and am not saing all the experts are wrong but I just want somebody to explain WHY and tell me why what I wrote above in my second paragraph is wrong?

I don't think you are understanding. Let me try to clarify:

On the flop you ALWAYS multiple by 4.

On the turn you ALWAYS multiple by 2.

There is no hand odds multiplications done on the river because there are no more cards to come to try and make your hand. On the river the hand you have is the hand you have, there is no chance to further improve it.

This ought to do it.

Your analysis is right-ish. If there is money behind, your opponent is likely to continue firing on the turn, especially if no scare card, ie:flush card, hits. However the reason you called when getting proper current pot odds using the rule of 2 was because you mathematically don't need to get any further money in the pot for your call to be correct. Now had your opponent bet large enough where you would have had to use the odds from the rule of 4 to justify the call, you are making this call based on an opponent read if there is money behind.

Example 1: Ultrapassive in later streets, but cbets 90-100 percent opponent cbets you when you have flopped your 4 flush in position heads up. He is not 2 barreling you if he doesn't have the goods hardcore, and even then unless it's damn nice he'll be afraid because you called in position. It is this opponents nature, so you will get the free river card much of the time. Here you may use the rule of 4 because the extra money you'll sometimes get from an overly passive station makes up for the few times he fires the turn.

Example 2: Ultraaggro opponent who will fire down no matter what happens to bully you off a hand cbets half pot, only giving you 3:1, so rule of 2 says fold. You can still call here, because if he's a blindly aggressing donkey then he's going to pay you off for AT LEAST the extra half of the flop pot to give you your rule of 4 odds on the turn. This being the concept of implied odds.

So, because of opponent specific reads, and implied odds, we make use of the rules of 2 and 4 situationally. Sometimes you should call when the expressed pot odds are bad. Sometimes you should stick to the specific rule to the letter. As long as you stick to the rule to the letter, you are getting the best of it. Calling on a flop using the rule of 2 may give away your hand, and prevent you getting any more money in, but if you used the rule correctly, you got your money in as a mathematical favorite, so anything extra that gets in is just bonus. This is also where playing deceptively comes in so that your opponent cannot always know exactly what you have by reading your action against the odds of the situation.

Keep in mind also that the rules of 2 and 4 only ever apply, in a truly technical sense, if your draw is to the nuts, and the oppoenent will have no redraw. It complicates things further, but that's the beauty of our game, is it not?

Don't know how to do the nifty quote thing, and didn't want to spam add posts, but raven added on while I was away. A clarifying caveat to raven's response is that it is assuming that the bet you are to be calling is all in. If not all in, then see my awesomeness

Deceitful_Frank said:

I fully understand what you wrote and have seen similar written and talked about on countless occasions and have also seen the rule of TWO used on the turn and river seperately.

I understand the rule of 2 and 4 but just don't think it stands up to scrutiny. I suck at poker and am not saing all the experts are wrong but I just want somebody to explain WHY and tell me why what I wrote above in my second paragraph is wrong?

Click to expand...

Haha, so you don't think math stands up to scrutiny?



That is how you calculate the probability of hitting your hand on the turn & river if you are going to see both streets.

If you want to find out the probability of hitting your hand with only one card to come it would be:

P(turn)= # of outs/47

P(river)= #of outs/46

The easier way to do this is to just use the rule of 4 & 2 or print out a poker odds chart and play with it in front of you.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/images/Pot-Odds.gif

StormRaven said:

I don't think you are understanding. Let me try to clarify:

On the flop you ALWAYS multiple by 4.

On the turn you ALWAYS multiple by 2.

There is no hand odds multiplications done on the river because there are no more cards to come to try and make your hand. On the river the hand you have is the hand you have, there is no chance to further improve it.

Click to expand...

This is incorrect, please don't follow this. Just remember to use the rule of 2 when you are going to see one card. And the rule of 4 when you get to see both cards.

It sounds like you got your head stuck somewhere in between pot odds, implied odds, and odds of making your hand. Try this:

Odds of making your hand:

Your hand: Ac Jc

Flop: Qc 7c 3h

You have 4 to a flush-right? 9 cards help you. Here you take 9 x 4=36% chance of hitting your flush.

Turn: 2d

No help here. Now you take that same 9 cards and multiply by 2. 9 x 2=18% chance of hitting your flush.

Sounds to me like this is what you're talking about. This is what Raven said above. Once you get this as a law and understand that it doesn't change because of the pot, opponent, or anything else EVER, study the awesomeness of IveGotOuts. Hope this helps.