Possible Prop Bet
ok so I was kind of jokingly talking about a prop bet for 200k hands in the chat thread but as I think more and more about it it could possibly be a good idea.
Basically this is my best month by far in terms of money won but I'm running crazy hot. I'd like to be winning at least this much every month but it's not going to happen if I keep playing the 40k hands I'm on pace to play this month. Here's the thing though: I'm playing 400nl now, and I'm not able to play as many tables. So my thinking was at least next month to get back into grinding mode, and probably grind 100nl actually. I figure I can 24-table there, work to keep playing well and not being a crazy nit, and actually make some money. Even at the same winrate, it wouldn't be a huge loss and I'm guessing I have a bigger edge at 100nl so it's probably worth it. Long-term I'd like to get back to grinding and being able to play at least 200-400 with a decent number of tables (as opposed to the like 9-12 I've been doing recently).
So anyway that's my logic behind wanting to do this bet. Here would be terms:
100nl+, this means I can play 200nl if I want, but if we do money won or winrate it would be in PTBB/100 so averaged out at all stakes so if I'm down at 100 I can't simply go up to 200 or higher to make back losses. If we did a bet where I had to break even and I was down 2 buy-ins at 100nl, I'd have to make $400 at 200nl to break back even, not just one buy-in.
200k hands - pretty self-explanatory. I'd be playing between Stars and FTP with majority of my play probably at Stars (fpp value is a bit better than rakeback at 100nl) but this means I can game select between the two and if I want to go crazy I could technically 40-table at one time. I'm going to say I won't be doing that lol
FR - All at 9-man tables. I can play HU, shorthanded, or full, but the tables must be 9max tables.
Month - probably do it for March, but if I start it late we'll just do 30 days
Actual bet: few things running through my head. first would be winrate. Possibly make it like 2 or 2.5. For this I would want very good odds
, like 5:1. Since that may get people not to bet (even if I thought something was 1 in 8 to happen I may not bet at 5:1 just because I have to wager a lot more than I get back. Same reason the lotto is so popular despite being -ev, small risk for big return). So I was thinking maybe I must win and make it like 2:1. The problem is I do NOT want to be just playing breakeven poker here so I'd like an incentive for winrate. Just that I'll have to focus a lot more for a lot longer and it would be tougher so I'd need the better odds.
Reasons to bet against me:
- 200k hands is a shitton of hands to play in a month
- My only month with over 100k hands was 115k at 200nl and I lost 2k
- Most hands I've played in a day this month is 4k. I'd need to average over 6k/day for this bet
- I'm taking 9 credit-hours at community college and I'm a CC/2+2 addict who probably won't be able to stop posting
Reasons I think I can still do it:
- I have practically no commitments other than school
- Motivation of prop bet/money
- I have gotten a lot better at poker since my December bet and I'm pretty sure I can beat 100nl comfortably
I'd need a significant amount of action to make it worthwhile, if we do the 2:1 one I'm thinking I'd need 1k to my 500 at least to do it and preferably more like 2k to my 1k.
I'm completely open to everything if people can think of something different, whehter they think the odds are bad, something else I haven't thought of, or what.
escrows - I trust most people who post here regularly. If I don't know/trust you I'm going to need an escrow and if anyone doesn't trust me I'm fine escrowing with a trustworthy person here. To verify I can have Stars email my hands that month directly to someone who bet against me (preferably that other people who bet against me trust) and they can make sure I did fullfill the terms of the bet.
Let me know if there are any questions, any comments, any concerns with the terms, and most importantly any interest in betting. Thanks.