Poker Swings?

yonosemanana

yonosemanana

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I dont think poker swings are real. I believe poker players use it as an excuse when they are either playing bad or getting some unlucky hands.

Unlucky hands means people are playing a type of hand which is expected to win but it doesnt. On the other hand, you can win by playing cards that are unexpected to win. SO it should balance the swing. Right?
 
almanik

almanik

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Poker is a card game. Skills here very important, but you can't do nothing without luck. Everybody need to get good card sometimes to have good results.
 
taban13

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In tournaments you can never predict the outcome of the game in advance. All affected too many factors.
 
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Fussy

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There are times when you keep hitting the cards you need, and other times when you keep getting sucked on even when you flop nuts, I'd say these are swings.. if it keeps happening for certain period
 
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corrupted15

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Dealing with swings and being mentally tough is a huge skill. For example I play HUSNG's where the variance can be huge, so less tilt can really add to your ROI.
 
PLAYINBIG

PLAYINBIG

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I believe poker swings are real.I think no matter what skill you have,in the long run you still have to be catching cards that are gonna connect with the flop turn or river to win a tourney. Cash games may be different but I rarely ever play cash games.
 
BluffMeAllIn

BluffMeAllIn

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There is no believing or not believing, its real grind any amount of poker worth talking about and you will experience them.

The good news is they usually can go both ways downswing and upswing, the variance can be good and bad side of things so we just have to learn to accept it and grind through it.

Why does I wanna do this a lot lately :banghead:, maybe it isn't real :p
 
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11012015

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For players this is a rhetorical question. It is impossible to answer it unequivocally. And it is better not to think about.
 
Four Dogs

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I dont think poker swings are real. I believe poker players use it as an excuse when they are either playing bad or getting some unlucky hands.

Unlucky hands means people are playing a type of hand which is expected to win but it doesnt. On the other hand, you can win by playing cards that are unexpected to win. SO it should balance the swing. Right?
You don't believe in swings? So you think that if you play exactly the same all the time you'll get the same results, every session? Surely you don't.
 
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Toobuck4U

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Poker...It's up and down call it what u will
 
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chloebrand

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You must not have ever caught a bad run of cards. It happens, and is part of the game. When aces get cracked by 5 6 off suit, or or your cowboys get busted by deuce 7, it happens. But as long as you don't give up, keep playing, and continue learning the swings do go away.
 
Four Dogs

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I have had swings so bad it's taken me 20,000 hands to get even, that's only 2 weeks of play for me but if i were playing live that could be more like 2 years. It's not the ups or downs that count, it's the average of the good times and the bad times and I don't think you can really zero in on you're true winrate with less than 100,000 hands.
 
yonosemanana

yonosemanana

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You don't believe in swings? So you think that if you play exactly the same all the time you'll get the same results, every session? Surely you don't.

Im saying you can play any two cards, and have equally both positive and negative results so its impossible to have an up and down swing. Because it balances from the bad to the good and vice versa.
 
Four Dogs

Four Dogs

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Im saying you can play any two cards, and have equally both positive and negative results so its impossible to have an up and down swing. Because it balances from the bad to the good and vice versa.
True, over the course of many many thousands of hands. You can be a winning player and lose over 50,000 hands; that's a swing. You can think your shit don't smell over 30,000 hands; that's a swing too. If you look at the PTR leaderboards you'll see very few players with over 100,000 hands with BB/100 greater than 2 but BB/100 of 10 or more are pretty common over 50,000. Why is that. Clearly the higher winrates represent heaters and for every swing up, there's a swing down.

I do however agree with you in that people do have a tendency to stick their heads in the sand in regards to their true win rates and they do like to blame poor results on things like variance or bad luck and if you find yourself down over 20-30,000 hands it may be just that, a swing, or it could be a leak. Usually it's a bit of both, bad results often breeds bad play. The point is, you're doing yourself a disservice if you just chalk it up to a downswing everytime you're sucking it up. Even good players get sloppy so close a few tables and open up your tracking software. There's always a few gems in there even when it is just a bad stretch of cards.
 
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