Originally Posted by yonosemanana
Im saying you can play any two cards, and have equally both positive and negative results so its impossible to have an up and down swing. Because it balances from the bad to the good and vice versa.
True, over the course of many many thousands of hands. You can be a winning player and lose over 50,000 hands; that's a swing. You can think your shit don't smell over 30,000 hands; that's a swing too. If you look at the PTR leaderboards you'll see very few players with over 100,000 hands with BB/100 greater than 2 but BB/100 of 10 or more are pretty common over 50,000. Why is that. Clearly the higher winrates represent heaters and for every swing up, there's a swing down.
I do however agree with you in that people do have a tendency to stick their heads in the sand in regards to their true win rates and they do like to blame poor results on things like variance or bad luck and if you find yourself down over 20-30,000 hands it may be just that, a swing, or it could be a leak. Usually it's a bit of both, bad results often breeds bad play. The point is, you're doing yourself a disservice if you just chalk it up to a downswing everytime you're sucking it up. Even good players get sloppy so close a few tables and open up your tracking software. There's always a few gems in there even when it is just a bad stretch of cards.