Poker pro's and pot odds

J

jjohl

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Hey this is a really stupid question, but someone asked me today and I didn't really know. Is there any really good poker pros who don't use pot odds?
 
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RamdeeBen

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I doubt that very much..and even if i did i'm quite sure they woulden't say didnt!
 
OzExorcist

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I'm going to guess no.

There will be plenty that don't do the exact calculations at the table, especially live players where it's not always quick or easy to get the exact size of the pot or your opponent's stack. But they'll at least be doing estimates.
 
ukaliks

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I'm going to guess no.

There will be plenty that don't do the exact calculations at the table, especially live players where it's not always quick or easy to get the exact size of the pot or your opponent's stack. But they'll at least be doing estimates.

Ditto. Im guessing the good players play alot of live games so there used to the constant adding up of pot odds/outs etc etc.
There more u play the more u get the hang of it.
 
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ongkie

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well there are times whereby you just know your opponent is bluffing and your should call with a marginal hand
 
forsakenone

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i think Isildur1 doesn't calculate them, but than again he is not that much of a pro.
 
Stick66

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I've read Mike Matusow say "Don't read Sklansky". I took that to mean that he doesn't agree with basing your actions mostly or entirely on odds, etc. But I'm not sure if Mike ignores odds completely. I mean, even the biggest donkeys know not to chase a gutshot for your whole stack. (but many of them do it anyway, against what they know)
 
dmorris68

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I would expect that today's emphasis on pot odds, as a purely mathematical concept, mostly came about from online play. A very few of the live eggheads like Sklanksy would have probably been running the precise calculations in their heads.

However I am confident that even the old-timers who only play live use the same concept of pot odds, just on a more instinctual level. They certainly do understand the concept of being priced in, when there is too much money in the pot to fold. They can look at the size of the pot and have a very good idea of whether a call is profitable or not.

So yes, I'd say that even the old live pros, including Matusow, are using the concept of pot odds even if they don't recognize it as such. But live players also have a lot of other feedback that contributes to their reads and instincts, making the more precise mathematical concept a bigger necessity in online games where gut reads and instincts play a smaller role.
 
lektrikguy

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Some go against pot odds but only because some have incredible reads. This is where the live pros have an advantage over the online players.
 
dmorris68

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Instinctive* :p
:p

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/instinctual
in·stinc·tu·al (
ibreve.gif
n-st
ibreve.gif
ngk
prime.gif
ch
oomacr.gif
-
schwa.gif
l)adj. Of, relating to, or derived from instinct. See Synonyms at instinctive.

in·stinc
prime.gif
tu·al·ly
adv.


The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
 
madtom1337

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:p
The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.

Pffft?!?! AMERICAN Heritage? No thanks. Houghton Muffin Co? No thanks. Oxford English Dictionary please :p

Ugh, it looks like you're right though :(

http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/88422

Still, 'instinctual' sounds HORRIBLE! Unless you're a yank, I guess :p
 
LarkMarlow

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David Apostolico, in his book Lessons from the Pro Poker Tour, says that "playing pot odds is not an absolute in tournament play".

Unlike cash games where "if you consistently make or call bets when you are getting favorable odds, you will make money over all," he says that "tournament play is different. Once you are out of chips, you are done."

He goes on to give an example: "you are a 4-1 underdog but are getting paid 5-1. If calling that bet and losing means elimination, then in most circumstances you should not call." The only exception he cites is when you are so short stacked that you wouldn't have enough chips to play with if you were to fold.

He concludes by saying that he "certainly [does] not advocate completely ignoring pot odds. Rather, pot odds should be considered along with every other factor in reaching a decision. The size of your chip stack, the amount of the blinds, and your ultimate goals are just some of the other factors to consider."
 
dmorris68

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^^^ This is absolutely true, and I like the way he puts it.

I guess I assume that people realize tourney and cash poker can be entirely different games, strategy-wise, but the truth is most beginning players don't make the distinctions for awhile.
 
OzExorcist

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Some go against pot odds but only because some have incredible reads. This is where the live pros have an advantage over the online players.

If you've got some incredible read whereby you know your opponent is bluffing then you're not ignoring or going against pot odds - you just know they're in your favour.
 
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I watched Darwin Moon. Man he is good at knowing exactly how much he can bid and get payed off, and where he is in the hand. He is not a pro, but he did win more than 5M$ last year, and I am pretty sure that he doesnt calculate pot odds.
 
Poker Orifice

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Ditto. Im guessing the good players play alot of live games so there used to the constant adding up of pot odds/outs etc etc.
There more u play the more u get the hang of it.

You're 'guessing'??? This is a REALLY simplistic & BASIC part of the game.
 
Poker Orifice

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I watched Darwin Moon. Man he is good at knowing exactly how much he can bid and get payed off, and where he is in the hand. He is not a pro, but he did win more than 5M$ last year, and I am pretty sure that he doesnt calculate pot odds.

Umm.. yah.. & it was quite obvious that his bet-sizing was TERRIBLE.. so bad in fact that in one 'televised' spot he folds getting better than 10to1 odds. (his bet-sizing was real bad in this year's 'televised portion' of the MnEv. too).
 
OzExorcist

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I watched Darwin Moon. Man he is good at knowing exactly how much he can bid and get payed off, and where he is in the hand. He is not a pro, but he did win more than 5M$ last year, and I am pretty sure that he doesnt calculate pot odds.

This is a level, right?
 
Tom1559

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I would say that all good successful pros survive on knowing the odds and play to them almost all of the time. The exception is of course when they bluff.
 
LarkMarlow

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Just came across this today in the Doyle's Room newsletter and immediately thought of this thread.

"Mike Caro's Lesson 44: Poker's mathematical myth

In poker, knowing exact odds doesn't matter much. And being able to calculate complex probabilities in the heat of poker combat won't add much to your profit.

Despite this, I'm obsessed with statistics, having calculated complex charts on poker. You don't need to do this time-consuming math to excel. My stats serve mostly to satisfy curiosity.

Sure, you need a good grasp of how often hands will occur and how likely they are to improve. But precision beyond that has only mild benefit. When it's your turn to act, you have only seconds to decide. If you concentrate too hard on getting odds exact, you'll be wasting time you could use to make more important decisions regarding tells and tendencies of opponents.

Yes, you need to know approximately how strong hands are, and you need to gauge your prospects reasonably. But the notion that you must make lightning-fast calculations under pressure is a poker myth.— MC"
 
ckickenking

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Any poker pro who doesn't used some kind of odd system must certainly be the luckiest poker player ever. Right, sound ridiculous if that person base it all on luck and gut feeling. lol
 
dmorris68

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Going through some DTB videos today and QTip has a pretty nice series on poker math for people who aren't math-inclined. Going back to my post above about old timers who don't consciously use math at the table but are actually doing so on a subconscious level, this is what QTip says at the very beginning of video #1:
Some would say the math isn't important in poker. They like to call themselves "Feel Players." They just feel out the situation and make the decision they think is best. However, don't be fooled. The good players saying this are "feeling" the math in the game. The bad players saying this are just, well, bad players. There isn't a good poker player who doesn't understand the numbers we're going to go over in this series.
So he's basically echoing (or me echoing him, actually) what I posted above about "instinctual" math.

I'm fairly well read by now on the concepts behind most poker math but I'm going to go through this series anyway, because the math doesn't always come easy to me. It's a 10 episode series that claims to cover some advanced concepts in an easy to understand manner, so I'm sure I'll pick up some tricks or concepts that just aren't second nature to me yet. Here's the lesson index:

Lesson 1 - Getting Your Feet Wet
Lesson 2 - Betting on the Bedrock
Lesson 3 - Hit the Deck!
Lesson 4 - Pursuing the Percentage
Lesson 5 - Pot Odds
Lesson 6 - Implied Odds
Lesson 7 - Exploring the Unknown
Lesson 8 - equity vs Range
Lesson 9 - Bluffing
Lesson 10 - Semi-Bluffing

If you don't have a DTB membership yet and would like to check this out, they offer a 7-day free trial. They also offer a number of rakeback offers on most major sites, with the added bonus of earning free DTB months that does NOT affect your MGR (i.e. is not deducted from your RB). Very similar to TFPT with Cardrunners on FullTilt.

(I know this sounds like I'm shilling for DTB but not so. I'm a new member there myself (well, newly paying member anyway, I've actually been signed up since January) and I'm really liking what I've seen so far)
 
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dj11

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I've been convinced for years that the main importance of poker books and articles is to get a player to a responsible understanding of the game. The basics and advanced concepts are so widely understood these days that it takes something else to excel. And that something else will not be math based to the 4th digit, or the 3rd, or the 2nd.

Most of us muck 72o most of the time, Why? Well, most us understand the cardinal ranking of cards, and have some probably very inadequate understanding of combo's and odds and 'feel' that the opportunity for 72o to improve is too remote to proceed.

Even most beginners who understand nothing can grasp that. There is math behind that but how many of us have spent any amount of time calculating the net effects of aggressively playing 72o. Truth probably is that aggressively playing 72o is the only way of playing 72o just because it is so easy to muck in the face of resistance. But that gets to be an advanced poker topic about reads, bluffs and domination, when maybe all it really is is insanity and juevos grande'.;)
 
madtom1337

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@dmorris - QTip has also just released a book called "Poker Math that Matters" if you want to plug more of his material for him? How much is he paying you? :D
 
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