poker players overestimate the skill factor in their play

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CANDYMAN1414

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Luck is something that happens that you werent expecting. Good example - Big Blind specials when your opponent hits top pair and bets into you. If theres bad luck then theres good luck also. You know bad luck when your opponent hits runner runner or a 1 outer on the river. can I get an amen ?
 
gus201

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Naw no thanks I was just wanting to point out theres more to the game then just math but seems you and few others are set on nothing but math and text book play . I never hear of any one putting players on hands and was just wanting point that out . yes there players that can do this preflop . I am one that can, not here to brag just here to find a few that can . was hoping to find some one that can also have some questions I would have like to ask but this forum is no different . I lost touch with a friend and now I am looking for some one that has some in depth understanding.

I wont be posting much if at all much any more . It was fun and I hope I gave a few players some idea on some other aspects of the game that could be useful . My appologies for talking too much over some of you some times I dont realize it . good luck for you all and good skill for the others that use skill .

gus201
 
duggs

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ranging is deduction and applying logic, putting opponents on a hand is guessing, completely different to narrowing a range to a single hand. Ranging involves card removal, discounting and occurs over multiple streets as (most of the time) in single raised pots players have wide ranges.

the button raises you call out of BB with 55 and put them on 77 flop comes 775, folding based on that read is non logical and really really really really bad.
 
deucem

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Luck is something that happens that you werent expecting. Good example - Big Blind specials when your opponent hits top pair and bets into you. If theres bad luck then theres good luck also. You know bad luck when your opponent hits runner runner or a 1 outer on the river. can I get an amen ?
Amen.
Bad luck is also pocket rockets on pokerstars in small stakes tourneys.... they get cracked 95% of the time and usually with rubbish.
 
duggs

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Amen.
Bad luck is also pocket rockets on Pokerstars in small stakes tourneys.... they get cracked 95% of the time and usually with rubbish.

no not true at all
 
fletchdad

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Amen.
Bad luck is also pocket rockets on Pokerstars in small stakes tourneys.... they get cracked 95% of the time and usually with rubbish.

nope.

no not true at all

^^^^ yep.

@gus, people have the right to disagree with you. I would suggest you refrain from your arrogant sarcasm and try to look at the points made in an objective way. The reason most people join a poker forum is to engage in discussions and hopefully to gain insight that they had not had prior to the discussion.

Learning will not happen to people who already have all the answers.

And, to comment on some of the discussion here, math is important. Very accurate reads pre are almost impossible. Estimating ranges is not. It is the reads on a player that help to define their range postflop according to their actions. And this is where math become a very important tool. Juts having a read on a player will not help you determine if you can make a +ev play if you dont know how to calculate if that play could be + ev or not. And your example about putting someone on AJ is a bit silly IMO. Can you really put someone on exactly that hand OTF??????
 
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well i would agree with you...Most of us here play poker for a long time,some of CCers for a decades but especially because of that we have a strong ego and strong belives in our skills but i would say that it's way more about luck,seriously...i play poker for 6 years now and i already have a 1000+ printscreens about how i was beaten by donks(whether they are on tilt or they are just a lousy players)...but if we want to do a math the law of probability is pretty clear so there shouldn't be a surprises at the tables..which means anything could happen,this is poker :D :p
 
dj11

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Gonna miss gus...

I actually understand him. He could work on his writing skills, but hell, can't we all improve that?

Gus believes he can read opponents hands preflop to a greater degree than a pure math approach should recommend. I have not watched him play, so can only suggest we watch Daniel N, and marvel at what appears to be mad preflop read abilities. Maybe gus has that gift.

I understand the point he repeatedly makes, and for the most part agree with him. That is that poker is not a robotic game, and while a purely mathematical approach might in the short run be +EV, in the long run must be a flat EV. Consider rake and poker has to be a -EV venture. That is pure mathematics, that over the long run, every seat will win an equal number of hands, and after the rake is taken, we end up zero profit minus rakes.

If and I repeat IF, those who seem to think math is the only answer, then I propose this question;

If we know that poker has to be -EV because of the rake/fees, what are we playing for?

Well, a goodly number of us reject this. We understand that simple mathematical equation and somehow realize that there are flaws in that equation that we can, and do, exploit to our advantages.
 
ovitoo

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ehhh...

I think the point here that we were trying to explain is you dont set your oppononent on a hand preflop and then stick with it. It's about ranges.

And even Daniel N, who is sick when it comes to reading ppl , a majority of the time is coming up with his reads post flop. A lot of his reads come from betting patterns/sizing.
 
duggs

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Dj a sum negative game does not equal an unbeatable game, just means that for everything you win a group of people have lost more.
I dont know how you can honestly argue that a so called 'innate ability' to hand read is more effective than hand ranging
 
duggs

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disagree with just about everything you said there Dj
 
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Wow!!! This brings up a great quote from the group of people who state it all the time. "Statisics are liers and liers use statistics."
I want to know all about the most imortant variables not mentioned. from the liers....
1) who staked who? was it worth anythong at all to win?
2) when does 60 hands with people who have never played each other before serve as a good number? More importantly, did they know they were only playing 60 hands as a sample.
3) Why would they think it unusual the "experts" would win or lose less than the average players? Don't we distinguish average players as the a player more often call the river or missread an opponent preflop?
4) Does this guy have a house game we can play at? I'd love to be average around him and his buddies.
 
dj11

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Dj a sum negative game does not equal an unbeatable game, just means that for everything you win a group of people have lost more.
I dont know how you can honestly argue that a so called 'innate ability' to hand read is more effective than hand ranging

Please do not put words in my mouth. A purely mathematical poker is a negative sum game when you consider rake. Is this wrong?

Gus seemed to offer his notions that poker goes way way beyond the pure mathematics, into a wide range of other factors, psychology for one, story telling for another. And others. Deductive, and inductive logic, but at a stretch those would be considered pure mathematics. I do agree with those notions of the game.

I agree with you about poker being a beatable game. So would gus I would guess.

For you to espouse a single approach is as wrong as anything you rail against here. There are many different, and successful approaches to the game. We improve by learning as many of those different approaches as possible. We may alter our game some, or reject a certain approach, but understanding those rejected approaches is important.

If I had an innate ability to read hands, I would have to worry so much about villain ranges......ldo.. I do not have that innate ability so I do have to consider ranges. Perhaps gus does have that ability, I have no clue. More power to him if he does.
 
duggs

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Give an alternative interpretation of this statement then

"I understand the point he repeatedly makes, and for the most part agree with him. That is that poker is not a robotic game, and while a purely mathematical approach might in the short run be +EV, in the long run must be a flat EV. Consider rake and poker has to be a -EV venture. That is pure mathematics, that over the long run, every seat will win an equal number of hands, and after the rake is taken, we end up zero profit minus rakes.

If and I repeat IF, those who seem to think math is the only answer, then I propose this question;

If we know that poker has to be -EV because of the rake/fees, what are we playing for?"
 
JOEBOB69

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this is bringing out the OMC in me

I_give.gif
 
dj11

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Give an alternative interpretation of this statement then

"I understand the point he repeatedly makes, and for the most part agree with him. That is: that poker is not a robotic game, and while a purely mathematical approach might in the short run be +EV, in the long run must be a flat EV. Consider rake and poker has to be a -EV venture. That is pure mathematics, that over the long run, every seat will win an equal number of hands, and after the rake is taken, we end up zero profit minus rakes.

If and I repeat IF, those who seem to think math is the only answer, then I propose this question;

If we know that poker has to be -EV because of the rake/fees, what are we playing for?"

Is my use of the English Language that unclear? It says what it says, no alternate interpretation needed.....

But just for you, I added a colon....
 
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gus201

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Ok last post and im will not come back here . I am not the only player that can put players on hands preflop !!!!!!!!! I am not arrogant and did not want to emd it this way , I am always looking to talk poker and have a good intellegent conversation with others as long as they are open minded !!!!!!!!!

I never said my way was the only way and I never said math was wrong !!!!!!
I was blessed at the old PSO before it was sold to poker stars to have come across a great group of players that were pounding me at the tables every day!!!

They were able to do this before I joined the old pso and thought I was way off trying to learn on my own . STL is a student and a great friend of mine . Ask him what he has watched and seen when we were in skype learning poker together . Yes I was still learning while teaching him :)

But to have a group of closed minded players thinking they klnow more then any one else and that because I dont use math in every decision I make at the table just shows you how you can blow a good thing when it smacks you right in the face .

Sorry to have to leave like this but you that have tried to doubt every thing that I have tried to get you to see or understand has made it possible for me to never want to come here any more and post or talk with any one !!!!!!!!

Daniel Negaune (bad spelling ) has and has developed the ability to put players on hands threw hard work and studying player styles and types !!!!!
He [put players on hands preflop a lot .

But to ever say you cant do or that cant be done your only guessing is your loss not mine :) So thank yourselves for pushing a person who got this gift for free to leave and not want to share with any of you my abilities !!!!!!!

Just remember some times things arent always what they look like and if your ego's continue to to block your abilities to move up it is only your fault not any one elses .

may your attitudes and ego's bring you the best poker you can play .


All I can say is our government better hurry up and let us USA players play some where :)


Good Skill every one gus201/ TEXASDUKE
 
gus201

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Can some one PM me on how to delete my account here please :)
 
ovitoo

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relax.....

you're posting your opinions in a public forum and ppl are sharing there opinions. That's how this works.

I'll just say one more thing on it as well, and its that you seem to think math in poker only applies to pot odds and implied odds. Your reads come from math unless the dealer throws someone their cards and you just know what was dealt.

You base it off:
  • VPIP
  • how much they open for
  • what position there in
  • stack size
All math.

ps. You shouldn't leave over this. No one is attacking you.
 
Deco

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In Prof Meyer's study, 300 poker players took part, playing 60 hands each on tables of six. They were divided into "expert" and "average" players, and their ability to make money from good, bad and average hands was assessed. It turned out that - as you might expect - "expert" players lost less money on bad hands; but surprisingly, they did no better than average players on mediocre hands and even made slightly less on good ones. The conclusion, says Meyer, is that "poker players overestimate the skill factor in their play".

Lol at that sample!
How you do in 60 hands is pretty much luck? Did they really need a study for that :p

But ye I agree most people underestimate the amount of luck involved. Heck if fish couldn;t get lucky and win from time to time they wouldn't play. The mass majority of people who play poker think they're amazing at it when only 5% or so actually make money. When these 95% lose they put it down to bad luck as once upon a time they had a winning streak.

Winnings players can be as bad at underestimating luck, mostly in the form of winrates. People will actually take in samples of a mere 100-200K hands as viable samples of what their winrate looks like.

If you want to get a good idea of how much luck is involved in a hand sample of X hands try playing about with this calculator. (the default stdDev is a pretty decent approximation/average).
 
gus201

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Do you reealy think I am that dumb ?????

get a grip on it do you really think I dont know math ?

talk to me and stop making assumptions on what I know and how I think till you have talked with me . LOL
 
Deco

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the only time Luck plays a factor in the game of good players that have done their studying and learned how to play the game for what it is , is when theres still cards to come !!!!.

Coolers.
i.e. Getting KK in against AA and losing.
 
fletchdad

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Thank you for only looking at in a closed one way view :) Theres no options in poker no different ways to play a hand. Just 1 way per hand . Math will help me win games by giving me a percentage and and not getting the the other players put on a hand .

Wow Im really off here . I think I need to change my play and start understanding how percentages will win hands for me and stop putting players on hands when I am right and do have them beat . :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

I have been going about this all wrong and now see the math in the game . I dont need to take down the hand when a head of the other players but take it down when the math tells me I have the right outs to pot ratio with positive ev values and not to worry if im a head or behind . Because in the long run It will work out . Can any one telll me how long is the long run ? because I dont see how we can figure in the long run with out an end ?




Please any one hurry up I need help with math to this game :)

Could use some help as reading players and their hands is not suppose to work and all the 10 years of my studying is totaly wrong :mad:




Wow really resault oriented from what ?

would like to thank you and Duggs for being so straight forward about this . I will go and stay away from posting because its all about math and math only and reads dont factor in because the percentages will make me win .

Doohh , I have really missed the right way to play poker I am off to learn more math and will stop putting players on hands preflop because that is wrong .

I will now learn the right way to play and I hope I can win with hope .


Thank you and every one that has helped to understand that reads dont belong in poker especialy putting players on hands .


Off to learn math gus201

Blinded by the success of playing math .


gus201


My statement about arrogance was not ungrounded.

Can some one PM me on how to delete my account here please :)


Dude, chill. Seriously. You seem to want attention. If you wanted to discontinue your account (you have mentioned a couple of times that you are smart) you just erase the CC cookies and such, and clear your cache, and VOILA, you never need to come back. I am only saying this since your "how to delete my account" is a pretty silly comment.

But, on the other hand, I personally dont want to see you go. I believe CC is, for the most part, a friendly poker community. We like to discuss, and we like to disagree. If you cannot handle someone saying "I think your way is not only wrong, but very wrong" then that is up to you. It can be a way of learning and improving. Some posts will be borderline rude at times, but we are poker players, and if we tilt in forum posts, rant about "I am no longer posting here if you are gonna be like that" (4 times ITT I believe) then how are we going to deal with aggression at the tables? And some very well liked members here were once also put off at first, until they realized that critical discussion that points out what many believe to be bad advice, can lead to better play in the long run.........

I find some of your post to be quite arrogant, as well as many points do not make sense to me. Take the "I put him on AJ pre" comment. Even the best hand readers dont claim to put most preflop situations on "a hand" but rather they use ranges, and these ranges get narrowed down as the hand progresses (or not, since it always is situational). Many of your answers to people who also disagree with you are basically stating that you know more and it should be obvious that you are correct. You dont seem to want to consider that an differing opinion may just have some validity. You also stated in a post " I never hear of any one putting players on hands and was just wanting point that out". This is also hard to understand, unless you really dont read much in the forum except your own post and their replies.

Anyway, if you wanna go, good luck. However, perhaps consider the advantages of an open mind before you do go.
 
JCgrind

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this is bringing out the OMC in me

I_give.gif

+1,000,000.

20:1 gus is a winning player.

also, i thought DJ was a winning player? how can you not understand that a sum negative game is beatable? minimise your losses better than others, maximise your wins more than others. really really simple stuff
 
dj11

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+1,000,000.

20:1 gus is a winning player.

also, i thought DJ was a winning player? how can you not understand that a sum negative game is beatable? minimise your losses better than others, maximise your wins more than others. really really simple stuff

I did not say the game is unbeatable. My br is healthy tyvm. I stated the fact that PURELY MATHEMATICALLY it is a zero sum game or negative sum game when you consider rake. I have also said that IMO, the game is way more than math. Sorry to crack your ego guys, but gus is one of the more sane guys ITT... Many of you seem to want to start a fight... You who rely too much on the purely math aspect of the game really are missing the points gus has made, and I have made, and a few others have made. You will be bitching about bad beats too much.
 
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