Poker and luck - it is when it happens, the lottery!!!

Hi all, hope you are well.

Been thinking about things a lot recently, and reading a lot about luck in poker.

As we all know, your pocket aces do not get out drawn by donks everytime, poker sites are not rigged and a winning player who calls with 27 and busts your QQ is not a donk (could have been a pot odds call, etc)

Where I think luck comes into it is when it happens to you.

I have been trying to get my head around "If you always get your chips in good over time you will be a winning player" WRONG, or at least not 100% correct.

It is a matter of when you are taken out by a bad beat, when u suck out, etc.

Example. U make that wonder all in call preflop when short stacked with your JJ - other guys turns A3 - result!!! or should be. U r about 70% fav preflop.

If this is in a $5 SNG and it holds up - nice.

If, however, you are in a $200 MTT with prizepool of $100,000 and u lose when u r on the bubble it is not good.

So I think we have to accept, luck does play a part in poker and some people are luckier than others, in the same way that if we buy lottery tickets we all have an equal chance, some win, some don`t.

Just shooting the breeze guys

"If you always get your chips in good over time you will be a winning player"

Click to expand...

i think when u have a statement like this, it assumes that u are using proper brm and that u will play a sufficient number of games at that particular stake. The percentages will even out a very large sample size, ofcourse u will bubble tournies but if ur rolled and consistently make the best play, u will be a winner

pantin007 said:

i think when u have a statement like this, it assumes that u are using proper brm and that u will play a sufficient number of games at that particular stake. The percentages will even out a very large sample size, ofcourse u will bubble tournies but if ur rolled and consistently make the best play, u will be a winner

Click to expand...

Agreed, but the point I`m making is that I would rather suck out to win a $200,000 first prize that u got in via sattelite, than suck out to win a $10 SNG.

Jamie Gold is a prime example IMO.

I`m not saying he is good, bad or whatever as a poker player. What I am saying is that his "Allocation of luck" shall we say, happened at just the right time for him - from the highlights I have seen it was rare he missed any out, and I`m not talking flush draws, I`m talking gutshots, runner runner, getting monsters v the short stack and so on.

I think about this all the time. Another aspect of getting your money in good is this...statistically you are actually winning with AA the right number of times but when you win with them maybe you don't make the maximum, but when you lose with them you are losing the maximum, so it makes you a losing player.

Another aspect is how your brain remembers these situations, and the emotional impact it has on you. I think there are a large number of recreational poker players who are decent players and have a good grasp on all the concepts needed to be a winning player, but just have bad luck and it affects them to the point where they are break even or losing.

I agree with AA more times than not when you win, you win small. And almost always when you lose you lose big. But I think odds are you win more big pots than lose big pots. As far as luck goes I do not really believe in it. If
you get your chips in good most of the time then you are naturally going to get sucked out on more than sucking out yourself.

colquhounx said:

If you get your chips in good most of the time then you are naturally going to get sucked out on more than sucking out yourself.

Click to expand...

Yes.

But we all agree, and I don`t want this to turn into a `AA never holds up post`

However, using that hand. HU u r about 80% to win.

As has been said, the luck fact comes in as to when you win your 80% and when u lose your 20%

Think about it. You could play for years, make the correct decision on every hand and make a decent profit.

I have been playing for a few years, I get to a big MTT, play OK. push with my big pairs evertime and they hold. So say I get my 80% in that tourny I can now afford to lose all of my next 20 SNG @ $20 buy in.

Where I think the "long run" way of thinking helps is in cash games. If you lose your stack, you re-buy in and continue on knowing that if you keep getting in against that 80-20 hand, you'll come out of it way up, in the long run.

In a MTT, the long run is a lot longer. If you have 10, 80% ahead hands, chances are you are going to lose two of them and if its for all your chips, you're out. That's why you should only buy into MTT with less than 5% of your bankroll.

I get busted with more one outers than anyone I have ever seen. It is sick to think about it some times. I definitely need some good luck at the table cause all I seem to find is the bad luck even when I get my money in with the bet hand and a 98% to 2% chance to win the hand. If the poker god is listening "Can I have some good luck for a change?" AMEN

If there is no luck in poker then why does everyone always say good luck when they sit down to play. Maybe poker players need to take a hint from actors who say "break a leg" instead. How about "poop your pants."

MrMuckets said:

If there is no luck in poker then why does everyone always say good luck when they sit down to play. Maybe poker players need to take a hint from actors who say "break a leg" instead. How about "poop your pants."

Click to expand...

LOL. Good idea, why don't you try that out the next time you are in a casino.

Luck definitely plays a big part. Playing good poker only gives you a chance at winning the big money. Luck is what accelerates you to that big money. Also keep in mind that good poker players get sucked out more, and have less chances of being lucky. By this, I mean, if you're a good poker player, you are going to be playing better hands than the average player, meaning you'll usually have the odds, creating more opportunities for others to suck out on you (winning with less odds). Also, these guys playing with the lesser odds need to get lucky to survive these situations. Of course, there's also luck independent from what other players do, like the luck of getting the premium hands versus being card dead the whole tournament (which happens a lot, and you do sometimes have to donk yourself on purpose to get lucky for a chance to even make the money).

The point is that the long run means you play the SAME situation again and again and again. In cash games it happens again and again and again every session. In tournaments it can take lifetimes to have the same situation over and over, because you're not in a situation where you're shortstacked with 40 left and winning the flip gets you close to the final table while busting only gets you a few times the buy-in back. Luck only evens out in the long run if you face the same situation over and over again. Don't play MTTs and complain about luck/variance because as mentioned it takes WAY longer to reach the long run.

So in conclusion, **** tournaments, play cash instead .

pantin007 said:

i think when u have a statement like this, it assumes that u are using proper brm and that u will play a sufficient number of games at that particular stake. The percentages will even out a very large sample size, ofcourse u will bubble tournies but if ur rolled and consistently make the best play, u will be a winner

Click to expand...

Of course THIS is the problem with Tom Dwan's latest hubris. I can't wait to see it... either way it goes it glorious.

This is what brm is all about.
In short run luck i king, in the long run skill is king.
In a MTT the long run is just alot longer then ring but if your using good brm you will come out on top.
By how much can still be definted by short term luck(Yang and Gold for example,not saying there bad or good just that they hit at the right time),
beeing a winning player doesnt mean u should win a certain pre definted amount of money.
Just that u should win money.