Is poker largely luck?

I read today that the biggest loser in online poker this year so far is.....

Phil Ivey!!!

Now if the best player in the world is the biggest loser ($740k if I remember rightly) then what does that say about online poker?

Sure he's playing the best players and he could make it back in a couple of hands, but makes you think?

I cant stand cash games because except at the very low levels so much of it does rely on luck (good cards holding up/ winning a fair share of coin flips/ hitting draws when you have the odds to call etc)

someone said on another thread that mtts/ sngs have more variance, but is this really true?

You can only lose your buyin and yet can win many times that in an mtt, but cash games, you can lose a lot more and cant really win that much in comparison (without risking a lot more).

I remain convinced that unless you're into crazy bluffs (a la durrr) then you're unlikely to make an awful lot from cash games...

I stick to the lower levels where a player can win purely because there are beginners/ idiots!

At the higher levels where most know what they're doing it surely is nearly impossible to make cash without some good luck?

Therefore it's almost like playing the lottery (a knowledgable player effectively loses his/ her 'edge').

Oh well guess I'll stick to my micro sngs/ mtts and freerolls for the rest of my life to earn a few $k every year to buy some shoes and clothes!

In the short run, luck. Long run, its skill.

i think what he is saying that everyone at those levels are so skilled and equal there is almost no fish to feed from. it essentially playing the lottery because who ever gets the better cards or better breaks win.
whether i agree or not i don't know. it kind of makes sense!

even best player can make mistakes.so it's no strange to ivey.those pro players sometimes have new problems.these problem cant be attributed to luck or unluck.i still believe,poker is a sport of skill.

I agree

If you want to play a game were u have odds to call etc..
you should definately play at the casino especially if your
putting alot down.
But most players like online poker because it is just so much faster

A lot of it is luck, but over time good play will win. Sometimes it takes a very long time. The trouble is, we don't always play good! How many times have you "decided to call to see if he was bluffing" only to find out (again), he wasn't! Or getting such a bad run of cards that you are in the pot with inferior hands, etc.. We know how we should play, but we don't always play that way. There are so may variables, that's what makes it a great game!

can you provide the source that said that ivey was the biggest loser for the year?

but the point he is making is that once you get to the top .5% of the skill ladder and you are only playing those people the skill would off set each other bringing the game back to luck.
EXP. if i was the one millionth best poker player in the world and i was playing the person ranked one million and one we could agree that we are on even playing fields. so if we are both going to play with the same skill you would think the one that gets the better cards or more lucky would come on top.
EXP. now take the same scenario but at the top of the ladder. their skills almost off set each other and once again the person getting the cards and breaks will come out on top.
EXP. now take phil ivey vs. me and the cards and breaks don't matter as much since he would dominate me anyways!

Iveys playing the poker odds unfortunately too many online players play using pure dumb luck. Most of the time they get rewarded for doing it.

Is this a level??

i have never won a tournament without some kind of luck. i use mostly skill but there are times when you find the need to gamble. thats when it is luck. the ring games are full of gamblers so there is going to much more of the lucky plays going on.

You need both..., skill to select the right spots to get your money in and luck (or at least not bad luck) to have your hand hold up...
The one without the other wont get you very far in online poker...
aC

CryingAmy said:

I read today that the biggest loser in online poker this year so far is.....

Phil Ivey!!!

Now if the best player in the world is the biggest loser ($740k if I remember rightly) then what does that say about online poker?

Click to expand...

It says that Phil Ivey has made at least $740K in the past playing it and because he hasn't stopped, it says that he believes this is just a downswing and that he will eventually make all of that money back and some profit as well.

Also consider the stakes Phil Ivey plays at. $740k isn't that much if you are putting 20k+ on the table each time you play.

did it mention ?

what 740k means to phil?or compared it to his winnings?we all have our ups n downs....wish i could have a year that allows me to lose like that...phil will be fine of that i,m certain

Phil Ivey has made some really big mistakes recently. He didn't lose all the money due to bad luck.

Skill and luck in my opinion.

Skill knowing when to be playing a hand, player, bet, odds etc... and luck that even when playing best cards in best position at the right time with the right odds etc..., the wrong cards don't come down!

credit to PokerNews online railbird report:

Who's Up? Who's Down?

This week's winners: Patrik Antonius ($1.06 million), Phil Ivey ($620,000), Urindanger ($546,000)

This week's losers: Gus Hansen (-$744,000), Ziigmund (-$698,000), LarsLuzak (-$554,000)

Biggest 2009 winners overall (estimated): Hac "trex313" Dang ($3.7 million), Mark Vos, ($1.9 million), Patrik Antonius ($1.7 million), Phil Ivey ($1.3 million), _FullFlush1_ ($1 million)

Biggest 2009 losers overall (estimated): Tom "durrrr" Dwan (-$3.3 million), Brian Hastings (-$990,000), luckexpress10 (-$803,000), papa ninja (-$715,000), world1969 (-$676,000)

PN does not show Ivey being down this year.

i think that you can't play poker if you don't know the basic rules,when to go or when to fold, but i really think that the most important part is too have a little bit of luck! if you don't have luck you don't receive the good card and the best flop!

Even tiger woods has trouble with his swing from time to time.

I dont think you can win a tournament without a lil luck involved but overall smart play and skill will win the game.

50/50 in my opinion. i mean, you can only understand and play odds so many times before you are bound to hit something. but, skill, yeah but more on the psych. side. how to bet and when to do it is a learned skill for sure, but that doesn't always work either.

diamond_06_06 said:

Is this a level??

Click to expand...

Is this 2plus2? (sorry it just seems when I tried that forum no discussion usally got started because this was usally the reply most questions got)

The quote you make your own luck is always what comes to mind with poker. Its like when people find out I am playing poker and they think I am going to gamble all my money away. I explain poker is not like roulette, there are math, probability, reading people and keeping a clear mind, to me thats what poker is about. No doubt that there is luck involved sometimes you get lucky and suckout, sometimes you get lucky due to superiour hand selection and knowledge of outs.

I read Gus Hansens book and he was talking how he didnt wanna tussle with Ivey too much because he could be playing any two card and hes hard to place on a hand. If you play the guy every day though he cannot win all the time. Im sure this is a blip for him and he is less worried than I am when I lose 7-8 buy-ins in my dollar sngs!!!

Just a bad run. Happens to all of us. I vote skill.

Online poker is more luck than live. When you watch the pros live using all the information around them to make good solid desicions you realise just how skillfull they are.