Poker, Game of Luck or Skill?

What you referring to is a nit game.

Iv'e played in a few low limit nit games vs old retired folks it sucks and isn't profitable. There isn't a big element of gamble these guys wait for aa-kk-99 aj suited they all play the same and never raise much. Consequently you can't bluff them or run over the table they never fold and usually have the best hand and will not pay you off in any way or chase. Your saying the new generation of players are all experts and play the same so therefore it's just random luck. The reality is it's just a tighter edge. Player A flops the nut flush player B flops a set of 10-10 and has to fill up to be the victor. Player A has a-6 suited in the blind and flops 6-2-9 and player B has k-j suited and keeps betting at em. Good players will re raise or call them down with a good read on your opponent. Poker is a people game of different variety unless you have a table of nits or possibly a table of TAG's which makes a boring game. Luckily it's a mix of both 95% of the time with a new influx of players all the time. I see the point here though hoodies sunglasses all like robots 2 bet-3 bet all in same same... The poker tournament was also created with blinds and ante's to force the element of gamble making players of all types go from tight aggressive to maniacal and even force them to venture into donkey ville going all in pre flop with j-4 suited. It's like saying chess is just luck because were all so good ludicrous,however chess has defined rules without randomness. Hold em tournaments are random fluctuations of about 200 hands sometimes you run hot early and go cold later or run cold early and just average out the rest of the way. It's a lot of skill to maintain during the bad times with good reads and it's not purely a skill game like shooting free throws because of the random nature of the game is unavoidable. The definition of skill by the way is the ability to control the outcome of an event from an exterior source such as putting,free throws,memory games running athletics etc.. Poker only has moments of calculations and control and the beauty is the other players don't know what you have that's why the cards are face down.

I not agree with you. what you say has no foundation skill as you speak two team. you said you have the same ability and so the champion of the Game and yes because he played better. And he played more on the mistakes of his opponent then is not gambling poker and so you only win the mistakes of others and yet not as lottery you bet to see if hits bet on a number to see if it hits the poker and skill and technical seeing you play your cards and the table has to show to the other you ta better.
I think you should study a little for you to see that if you study will see that it is not gambling and I speak 98% of skill against 2% luck that sort deepens when you win the all without seeing the flop bet everything on start against a player or several oh yes because you have to twist your letter to falls up there with the pair of you can lose that my OPINION

Listen, 20% - is luck, 80% - is skill.Some players think that such hands as KJs, A10, QJ, A5 are one of the best pre flop hands and they can move all in with this hands every time, but players with skill would call them with AKs and win.So poker is a game of skill.

The game would not be so popular if you have won with AA every time you have it, it's not interesting. The risk, luck, skill, make poker poker.

bredaman7 said:

Hi Everyone,
This is my first thread, I want to join this forum because I want to share my experiences, about poker or gambling. Ok, let me start regarding the title. Poker game that was considered as game of skill is no longer true. Why I can say this? just think about a match of two football teams. They are in the same skill, same level, and so what is the factor that determine the winner? LUCK, yes, luck, either by penalty, or wait until one of the teams got tired and have little focus. This example also valid to poker, when all the players on the table know how to read tells, betting pattern, playing position, know value of cards, then what is the point of having those skills, while others also knew it, it becomes what so called "common knowledge" in game theory. Nowadays, we can see lots of information bout poker everywhere, especially youtube. Books aren't that exclusive anymore, everybody can get "free" information. So nowadays poker almost can be called "gamble". You play poker and you can say that you "gamble". It is like blackjack when you cannot count cards anymore. I agree that there are still lots of fishes out there when you can suck out. But still, you "gamble" to find a fish, if there is any. so, now poker is just a game of luck and chance, you wait until you got the best cards, best flop, best turn, and best river. That is why poker legends are slowly being replaced by young poker players, they cant dominate this poker world anymore.

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I don't agree because in poker isn't a obvious best move and there several ways to play hands.

the truth

bredaman7 said:

Hi Everyone,
This is my first thread, I want to join this forum because I want to share my experiences, about poker or gambling. Ok, let me start regarding the title. Poker game that was considered as game of skill is no longer true. Why I can say this? just think about a match of two football teams. They are in the same skill, same level, and so what is the factor that determine the winner? LUCK, yes, luck, either by penalty, or wait until one of the teams got tired and have little focus. This example also valid to poker, when all the players on the table know how to read tells, betting pattern, playing position, know value of cards, then what is the point of having those skills, while others also knew it, it becomes what so called "common knowledge" in game theory. Nowadays, we can see lots of information bout poker everywhere, especially youtube. Books aren't that exclusive anymore, everybody can get "free" information. So nowadays poker almost can be called "gamble". You play poker and you can say that you "gamble". It is like blackjack when you cannot count cards anymore. I agree that there are still lots of fishes out there when you can suck out. But still, you "gamble" to find a fish, if there is any. so, now poker is just a game of luck and chance, you wait until you got the best cards, best flop, best turn, and best river. That is why poker legends are slowly being replaced by young poker players, they cant dominate this poker world anymore.

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Despite i think it's a terrible play (calling with T2) i agree, in tournaments you need luck. When you have been playing cashgame 10.000 hands cashgames, then it's unlikely that you are still losing i you are a better player than you opponents.

poker is allways game of skill, just sometimes game of luck

I enjoy posts such as this one where a person will post with what they thought was empirical statements about poker, judgement passed on the game as a whole. Opinions are stronger than facts about poker because of the difference of skill in each individual’s game as a whole. For example, knowledge, understanding, the skill that is not seen, how to read the table, opponents, recognize situations that do not happen with regularity, exploiting, the wiliness to exploit the opponent when they either step out of line or they just might make an obvious mistake, maybe not to the entire table but just one person specifically will see this but the eight others will not.


Betting sequences, betting routines, pre-flop, post flop, how much empirical knowledge does each person possess with these four terms? Bet sizing, flop betting, turn betting, river betting, how much empirical knowledge does each person possess when there is pressure to understand the right move, fold, raise, check raise, call, shove, three bet, four bet as some examples. Most of this information is limited that is empirical because of how people gather information about the game, their opponents, as the game, each journey plays forward.

For example, my coach was playing in a $5.00 one table SNG 9 max regular with 10 minute blind levels last night. There was a situation that arose and I told him that a person in early position was holding the K high nut flush on turn, however, he has been in situations from experience that allows him to know more about opponents that will also have the 10 high flush, that looks like the K high nut flush, and he had the J high flush. I only see the K high flush every time because of my experience, his experience has more hands played properly, with knowing more in this situation with second best and knows how this is a time to test the games played in this specific situation because of how many times this scenario has played out just like he was reading.

Rare situations might not been seen 10,000 times but only a couple thousand times, it is harder to trust or exploit in these situations, when situations do not arise consistently to have more empirical information.

It still did not make sense at the time but I truly understand why he was trusting his read, putting himself in an unnatural situation right or wrong is how a person will get better, willing to put himself in a uncomfortable situation for the betterment of his game. Of course he was wrong, now he is down a little more than half of the starting chip stack of 1500 chips after having a safe chip stack that was in second with 6 people left at the time.

He then began a methodical march back into the game and finished third. He did not panic because of the skill he possessed and he had the ability to gather chips even though, he was now the short stack at the table. I would have been upset and done something that was less skill full than my ability to further my bad position in the SNG. He explained, gathered chips back, and made plays against the table that I could not even see. The small edges he exploited at the table while having and not having chips, I could have not gathered them in the same manner as my coach.

The difference in skill at the $1.50 SNG 9 max is different than that of the $5.00 SNG 9 max. The skill that I would use in the $5.00 game would not existent in the $1.50 game. Why? People are esthetic to their cards, the will get married to situations rather than clearly understanding they have plenty of other situations that would be better later in the game. They are willing to push marginal situations pre flop, post flop. Making mistakes post flop is worse than pushing their big broad way hands pre because of what is taught in books, what they view, as a couple of examples. This one example influences how they play in other situations that only require cards and not skill, this now puts the player that has more skill into many skill less situations, the better player now is put in situations where their skill is almost rendered useless because of the lower skill level of their opponent. This level the value of cards trumps knowledge, skill, and understanding of situations that has been gathered through experience.


The $5.00 SNG people have knowledge, patience, skill, and will allow the person who has more skill as a few examples, to have a consistent advantage more than that of the $1.50 game however, both levels the people, their play is similar but one is easier to exploit than the other. Variance of cards will come into play; variance of skill is greater, in the lower buy in between the two. Variance of cards, variance of skill is not as great in the bigger buy in SNG because people are not playing their cards only; the opponent is more of the target based on what they are reading about each person or the inability of their opponent to make the same skill full plays as they would.

However each person dissects poker, how each understands, plays, gains information, there is someone waiting to take those chips, money, dignity, pride, confidence, as some examples. People will discuss give opinions, write, talk, post about the game I love long after we are gone. I believe poker is a game of skill cleverly disguised as a game of luck. Hope the remaining year is filled with success for each poker player.

But sometimes more skills, more luck in the long run. If you will find a luck everytime getting into the pot, you can't do your really best moves because your thinking it will come out even the weak draws. In your example its not 100% luck, you hit the top pair and expecting your facing a bluff.

I do believe there is a lot of luck on this topic but you do need to have a lot of skill also if you play the higher stake games you can see there is a lot of skill that is involved where the lower stake games yes there is a lot of donks playing and it is all luck.

It is still very much a game of skill. Its just that the skills required to be a good online player have gone beyond just playing the cards and the players. You also have to understand the casino that you play. Certain sites tend to repeatedly do some things which give you an edge over the other players.

You just need to be more observant now.

I don't think like you, because poker is a game where the personality and psychological factors counts a lot. So, the theory don't apply the same way in all players.

PrayForSpades said:

I feel where you are coming from, but in the long run poker is always a game of skill, a good poker player will always be a winning player in the long run.

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almost every game is a game of skill, even in the short run.
i disagree that every good player will be a winning player in the long run.
i am sure, there a players who are loosing players on the long run, which are better players than some others, who are winning players because they are just luckier.
the problem of course is, that noone would call those loosing players a better player because of their results.

Zack_theKnife said:

'Luck' (I prefer chance) is a variable. You can always reduce if not completely eliminate variables.

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never ever you can completely eliminate luck.
i am 44 years.
i gamble since i am 16.
with 16 i gambled backgammon for small money.
with 18 i started playing highstakes and different games, including 5 card draw.
i follow a bit the discussion since 10 years, saying poker is a skill game.
i think the reason for this statement is to get poker legal.
from my point of view, every game where cards or dices are involved is a luck game.
of course you also need skills to win this luck game.
but if luck is not on your side, you wont win a dollar.
even in the most simple game a better strategy gives you higher chance to win.
btw, my highest loss in one day was 26 years ago in a german card game for children called "mau mau".
even there you need stategy. but luck was not on my side, so i lost 6k german marks ^^

rifflemao said:

Are you saying that the young guns are luckier than the old guns? :icon_scra

(btw, some of the old guns are still firing away successfully on the WSOP circuit)

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the old guns i call the real gamblers.
the young guns, who first read 10 books before starting, are a different species.

DonkeyH3AD said:

How about Phil Hellmuth? He won something like 13 bracelet in his life is it lucky for You?

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i guess it would make sense to have a look at those tournaments and check how many players were taking part.

80% skill 20% luck.

Poker is a gambling game of skill and luck. I'm glad I have them both. Poker is luck as for the way the cards fall, but it's skill how you play your hand. When a good player buys a pot with a hand that's the loser, that is skill. When a player, slow plays a hand to get the most chips from it, that's skill. If you raise UTG with AK, get 2 callers, and hit two pair on the flop, that is luck. We can't make the cards to fall our way, but we sure can make other players think they did.

I believe it is skill in the long run

I think 80% skill 20% luck, that 20% sometimes get to be a very m****ing b****h xD

just yesterday i spent several hours watching youtube videos.
check out this one and the following
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iXusWYMtoQ4

A bit of each. But lucky is the most important when you play against someone with the same skill.

Poker is a game of skills. But without luck even best players can lose. Everybody need luck to win high places in MTT. In cash games luck play much more important role.

Skill can bring you only so far in poker. Under no circumstances you should compere poker skills to other fields like sports, cause at the bottom line poker skills only increase your chances to win, whereas at other fields having more skill and experience almost guarantees a win.

I keep thinking about this subject. I been working on my game for several months, and I started with my tilt problem. And it takes skill to over come that part of poker. Now I'm working on range, and position. Now this is where the skill comes in. After the flop what do we all think about first? For me, I think how I can get the pot even it I didn't hit anything. That takes skill, but I don't know what the turn or river is going to be. All that is pure luck. I have to say that we are 50/50 with skill/luck

It's a skill game. Luck is a part of the daily grind if you are a pro, but long term if you play well, you will be a winner. I have no doubt.
Now we have bots winning, which will kill online poker in a few years, just like they killed online chess. This is what proves that is a skill game for me. Computers can't beat random.