Plz someone explain this to me???

naruto_miu · Oct 6, 2008

Ok, we've all heard of it, it happens, it's part of the game! Down-swings....But this is the thing I can't comprehend, wont comprehend, and am not going to comprehend! Look I've posted on here acouple of times, I could'nt win for nothing, no matter what I did, how I got in, and what 2 cards I held, I lost. And I've also posted about (I can't even recall) how many times, I've held KK, and Ran into AA, but really is this a down-swing? Is there such a thing as a Down-Swing? Really? I mean I just can't understand, this because, I mean there's players that are constantly winning, and yet they win how? How can they be imune to these "So called, down-Swings".

That would be the same as implying that, "The sites", have some-sort of controll over your Good/Bad Run of Cards, correct? Which then leads to the So called "Rigged" theory. Now like I state I really don't believe in these "Down-Swings", I just some it up to I lost because I could'nt spot his set, or I could'nt spot his gut-shot straight or W/E reasoning I choose to justify it at the time in questioning, (Does anyone of this make any sene

).

I here so many ppl on here talk about these Swings and I really just don't get it, plz explain it to me. I mean there's got to be something I'm really missing here.

Plz and Ty

KyleJRM · Oct 6, 2008

A downswing is a statistical probability.

Imagine you flip a coin 2000 times. The odds of each coin flip are 50/50 between heads and tails.

Even though it's 50/50, the flips aren't going to alternate HTHTHTHTHTHTHTHT for 2000 flips. Statistically, you are likely to see at least one run of nine straight heads and one run of nine straight tails during your 2000 flips.

In poker, you are going to lose money on certain hands (KK vs AA is a common example), and if you play enough hands then you are going to go through stretches where those hands come up inordinately often. That's what a downswing is.

JMpointG · Oct 6, 2008

what ever it is i often feel the very same frustration.
About the rigged games, i m not sure there s a profit for the site : they get the rake anyway, so what would be the point ?

Divebitch · Oct 6, 2008

naruto_miu said:
That would be the same as implying that, "The sites", have some-sort of controll over your Good/Bad Run of Cards, correct? Which then leads to the So called "Rigged" theory.

I just sum it up to I lost because I could'nt spot his set, or I could'nt spot his gut-shot straight

Plz and Ty

I'd go several games at PS with not even a hand worth playing. Even a rare bluff would not work, when it clearly did for others on a regular basis. It went on for weeks I was sure it was rigged. Figured that when they set up new accts, some are tagged to be 'losers'. I stopped playing there for awhile. Then it turned around one day and lasted about a month. But it was just a tease because now it's turning bad again. Which proves my original theory, that it is rigged.

I see you like Omaha. Here's a little something to make you feel better. This is from yesterday's horse. Flop is tricky, but after the turn you think you are safe. Flush draw, gut-shot straight draw, a solid lock on the low (and none of that A2 BS, it was all mine. Then the unthinkable happens.... I couldn't spot it either, never saw it comin'.

Pokertron3000 · Oct 6, 2008

I play at pokerstars and I have been very swingy the last month or so, but im sorry what your saying does not prove that its rigged. It always amazes me the amount of people saying its rigged, its not and if it was why the hell do you play there?

The reason why some people win consistantly is because they play position and represent good cards all the time. And then when you call them its the one time thet have the nuts usally. This then makes you an other think that the opposition has great cards when its obvious he is bluffing most of the time. When we are on a downswing we play with more fear in my veiw.

WVHillbilly · Oct 6, 2008

I've recently been rereading Elements of Poker for about the 5th time and as Tommy Angelo explains in that book, downswings only exist in your mind. You can not BE in the middle of a downswing (how would you know where the middle is?). All you can do is focus on your game and the current hand. Yes, in the long run you'll have extended periods of negative variance and bad play (and extended variance leading to more bad play) but you'll find that you turn things around faster if you don't dwell on the imaginary "downswing" that your mind's created.

Ok, enough Tommy for now.

Naruto_Miu, I know you've posted that you're a lifetime loser online, so maybe you really need to examine your game? Maybe start posting some hands you have questions about in the HA forums (not obvious bad beats) or even make a video of you playing with some commentary. The comments you get just might help you to improve your play and turn your imagined downswing into an equally imaginary, although so much more fun, upswing.

zachvac · Oct 6, 2008

KyleJRM said:
A downswing is a statistical probability.

Imagine you flip a coin 2000 times. The odds of each coin flip are 50/50 between heads and tails.

Even though it's 50/50, the flips aren't going to alternate HTHTHTHTHTHTHTHT for 2000 flips. Statistically, you are likely to see at least one run of nine straight heads and one run of nine straight tails during your 2000 flips.

In poker, you are going to lose money on certain hands (KK vs AA is a common example), and if you play enough hands then you are going to go through stretches where those hands come up inordinately often. That's what a downswing is.

Nailed it right here.

btw Kyle first post I've seen in a while, how've you been?

Stick66 · Oct 6, 2008

naruto_miu said:
Ok, we've all heard of it, it happens, it's part of the game! Down-swings....But this is the thing I can't comprehend, wont comprehend, and am not going to comprehend! Look I've posted on here acouple of times, I could'nt win for nothing, no matter what I did, how I got in, and what 2 cards I held, I lost. And I've also posted about (I can't even recall) how many times, I've held KK, and Ran into AA, but really is this a down-swing? Is there such a thing as a Down-Swing? Really? I mean I just can't understand, this because, I mean there's players that are constantly winning, and yet they win how? How can they be imune to these "So called, down-Swings".

That would be the same as implying that, "The sites", have some-sort of controll over your Good/Bad Run of Cards, correct? Which then leads to the So called "Rigged" theory. Now like I state I really don't believe in these "Down-Swings", I just some it up to I lost because I could'nt spot his set, or I could'nt spot his gut-shot straight or W/E reasoning I choose to justify it at the time in questioning, (Does anyone of this make any sene ).

I here so many ppl on here talk about these Swings and I really just don't get it, plz explain it to me. I mean there's got to be something I'm really missing here.

Plz and Ty

A book I read called "The Poker Mindset" has a very good section on downswings. It says that there are 3 main causes: Poor play, tilt, and bad luck.

We as players can address the first 2. We can work on improving our game with practice, analysis, and study. We can work on combating tilt by learning what causes it, how to overcome it, and by putting poker in proper perspective.

But the last cause is beyond our control. Luck cannot be changed. There are things that we can do to change our cycle of play, thus changing the rate of our luck. The these things include changing the type of game we are playing (drop down in stakes, switch between cash and STT/MTT, or switch between NL and Limit) or changing the frequency we play (play more, play less, or take a break). If we do take a break, we can still remain immersed in poker by studying, reading, HH analyzing, watching video, playing play money or poker video games, etc.

So all is not lost. There are plenty of ways to approach a downswing. Just keep searching for what works for you.

Divebitch · Oct 6, 2008

Mr McCluskey said:
I play at pokerstars and I have been very swingy the last month or so, but im sorry what your saying does not prove that its rigged. It always amazes me the amount of people saying its rigged, its not and if it was why the hell do you play there?

The reason why some people win consistantly is because they play position and represent good cards all the time. And then when you call them its the one time thet have the nuts usally. This then makes you an other think that the opposition has great cards when its obvious he is bluffing most of the time. When we are on a downswing we play with more fear in my veiw.

:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: I should have added one of those at the end of my paragraph. So sorry, didn't mean to yank anyone's chain. I was 100% kidding. The 'poker sites are rigged' is such a long-running joke around here, figured most would get it. I believe the original poster was also kidding (hope so hehehe), I was just feeding the joke along. Even the part about 'I couldn't spot it either, never saw it comin' - my whole post was tongue-in-cheek (if that's the right term).

Often it is the damned cards' fault, but I do agree on the 'playing with fear' part. It's like a downward spiral or self-fulfilling prophecy kinda thing.

PokerPete · Oct 6, 2008

Divebitch said:
So sorry, didn't mean to yank anyone's chain. I was 100% kidding.

LOL! Clearly Divebitch=RIGGED!

Nice 'jelly' btw

glworden · Oct 6, 2008

Divebitch said:
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: I should have added one of those at the end of my paragraph. So sorry, didn't mean to yank anyone's chain. I was 100% kidding. It's such a long-running joke around here, figured most would get it. I believe the original poster was also kidding (hope so hehehe), I was just feeding the joke along.

Often it is the damned cards' fault, but I do agree on the 'playing with fear' part. It's like a downward spiral or self-fulfilling prophecy kinda thing.

Glad to see this, because I looked at your Omaha hand and didn't understand what the Hell you were talking about. Not a hand to feel confident about at all, and in no way a lock on the low. Of course. That's the joke.

Wonka22 · Oct 6, 2008

I seem to have the same problems Naruto.....I can play good poker all day long and then BLAM....and for wondering how come all these pros SEEM to do well all of the time....Well, they don't....somewhere on this site are a couple posts talking about how Mike Matusow loses hundreds of thousands of dollars playing online. Now the guy has a 1 million dollar bet with Jen Harmon that over like 4k hands he can beat her in 200/400.

The reason it seems these people can win, is that they have the money to deal with the downswings...and EVERYONE has them. Even Chuckts, Irexes and King Curtis, I'd presume.

Just keep plugging along..and practice good BRM....take some time...go buy a couple poker books.

Know what else I've found.....If you put in a rail request and get a couple of us nuts from here to rail you...that you'll actually play better poker. You don't want your peers to think that you're a donk. Very early this morning, I made the most stupid play ever...got married to AK and even though I knew exactly what the villain had in his hand...I called his all in bet to cripple me...Good luck on the tables mate, it'll come to you eventually...

milesash69 · Oct 6, 2008

i am a bot at pokerstars withdraw your cash

zachvac · Oct 6, 2008

Wonka22 said:
EVERYONE has them. Even Chuckts, Irexes and King Curtis, I'd presume.

umm no, Chuck doesn't have downswings. His downswings are only winning at 5 PTBB/100.

WVHillbilly · Oct 6, 2008

zachvac said:
umm no, Chuck doesn't have downswings. His downswings are only winning at 5 PTBB/100.

If ChuckTs loses his blinds that's a downswing.

Divebitch · Oct 6, 2008

glworden said:
Glad to see this, because I looked at your Omaha hand and didn't understand what the Hell you were talking about. Not a hand to feel confident about at all, and in no way a lock on the low. Of course. That's the joke.

Do you always go out of your way to be so offensive? What the hell are you talking about? Did you look at who was left in the hand? And this is also not after the flop, but after the turn. One more card to go. Only a 4 can ruin it? Please explain to me how this was not a lock. I feel a lot more confident that I will not 1/4 the pot with an A4, as opposed to an A2, and sure enough that was the case.

No one else had the flush draw either. 'Of course', that would have just been icing on the cake. But my hand itself was a beautiful hand to start out with. You can't ask for much better than that. But I didn't put this out there for a hand analysis. Was just trying to be friendly. Geez.

jdeliverer · Oct 6, 2008

WVHillbilly said:
If ChuckTs only wins the blinds that's a downswing.

FYP

Divebitch · Oct 6, 2008

PokerPete said:
LOL! Clearly Divebitch=RIGGED!

Nice 'jelly' btw

And getting more rigged by the minute. :argh: :laugh:

Thanks for the jelly compliment. Surprised you could even identify it. Hard to tell wth it is even full screen.

findus · Oct 6, 2008

The coin-flip example is a good one, but it's not much use when you're on a farcical 300 game run where your pre-flop all-in win percentage, which should average out at around 50% (sometimes go in ahead/behind, a lot / a little), is slightly above 20%.

Odds?

Pokertron3000 · Oct 6, 2008

Divebitch said:
:laugh: :laugh: :laugh: I should have added one of those at the end of my paragraph. So sorry, didn't mean to yank anyone's chain. I was 100% kidding. The 'poker sites are rigged' is such a long-running joke around here, figured most would get it. I believe the original poster was also kidding (hope so hehehe), I was just feeding the joke along. Even the part about 'I couldn't spot it either, never saw it comin' - my whole post was tongue-in-cheek (if that's the right term).

Often it is the damned cards' fault, but I do agree on the 'playing with fear' part. It's like a downward spiral or self-fulfilling prophecy kinda thing.

Sorry dive my bad, posted in the morning before my first cup of tea always a bad thing. Makes total sense now lol.

some intresting posts, so which book would you say I would be best getting on this subject, I can only afford one so I want to get the best there is.

Divebitch · Oct 6, 2008

Mr McCluskey said:
Sorry dive my bad, posted in the morning before my first cup of tea always a bad thing. Makes total sense now lol.

some intresting posts, so which book would you say I would be best getting on this subject, I can only afford one so I want to get the best there is.

Damned if I know, never read any. You're a doll.

First cup of tea eh?

jdeliverer · Oct 6, 2008

findus said:
The coin-flip example is a good one, but it's not much use when you're on a farcical 300 game run where your pre-flop all-in win percentage, which should average out at around 50% (sometimes go in ahead/behind, a lot / a little), is slightly above 20%.

Odds?

The odds of this happening if you are getting your money in ahead about half the time is exceedingly low.

However, I think the odds that you are going in way behind or a bit behind far more often than you realize are very high.

jdeliverer · Oct 6, 2008

Divebitch said:
Do you always go out of your way to be so offensive? What the hell are you talking about? Did you look at who was left in the hand? And this is also not after the flop, but after the turn. One more card to go. Only a 4 can ruin it? Please explain to me how this was not a lock. I feel a lot more confident that I will not 1/4 the pot with an A4, as opposed to an A2, and sure enough that was the case.

No one else had the flush draw either. 'Of course', that would have just been icing on the cake. But my hand itself was a beautiful hand to start out with. You can't ask for much better than that. But I didn't put this out there for a hand analysis. Was just trying to be friendly. Geez.

This was clearly not a "lock" on the low, because you lost. Lock means 100% to win. And it hardly matters that this time, the other hands weren't that good to begin with. That's results oriented.

I'm not criticizing your play, I just think you may have overreacted to glworden's post. I'm sure he didn't mean to offend.

Divebitch · Oct 6, 2008

jamesdadeliverer said:
This was clearly not a "lock" on the low, because you lost. Lock means 100% to win. And it hardly matters that this time, the other hands weren't that good to begin with. That's results oriented.

I'm not criticizing your play, I just think you may have overreacted to glworden's post. I'm sure he didn't mean to offend.

As I said, it was a lock after the turn, can't be much clearer than that. Only 3 outs to screw me out of half on the river. Any club to scoop he pot. You're 'sure he didn't mean to offend'?!??! How would you know? Did you read it at all? Dinged me twice. If so, won't help suggesting you read it again. I'm outta here.

sandbender · Oct 6, 2008

I know. Very unscientific, very unmathematical. But I'll bet big when I'm having a run of good cards, and lay low when whatever I have in the pocket is missing by one.

Ever notice that phenomenon? You have Q-9 and the flop comes K-10? I'll see it like 10 hands in a row, even with mediocre hands. (That's when it's time to push those suited almost-connectors.)

But there are definitely swings, when whatever you have hits like 10 hands in a row, and those times when whatever you have misses. You have KK, the flop is AQQ.

And findus, remind me not to play at your table:

findus said:
your pre-flop all-in win percentage

Plz someone explain this to me???

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