Playing like a donk or <*{{{{{{><

Hi all.

I was sitting at work very bored so for something to do I decided to play like a complete idiot.

I thought it would be fun to see how it feels I would go all in on the first hand - regardless. I was using my fpp`s on stars to win a place in the $100k (70fpp a time) NL holdem, 9 players at table.

I played 27 games, pushed allin first hand regardless.

Guess how many I won???

A lot of you are good with stats - what do the stats say???

Before u all start having a go, it was For Fun!!! So don`t start with serious comments but do take a guess.

thats an absolute disgrace how can u play like that!!!!!
only kiddin bet u won a few first hands so i will say maybe 3 games? one in 9 wouldnt be bad

Ronaldadio said:

I played 27 games, pushed allin first hand regardless.

Guess how many I won???

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Not very many

By probability it should be like 30 or %40 (random vs most pairs + premiums), but it could be anything with only 27 games. I'm guessing you did well by the tone of your post

25

how many hands did u see the river?

You probably won 70% total. 35% when someone actually called.

I hate those damn FPP sattys. Played for an hour just to get 2nd place and nothing.

I actually beat the odds!!!

Nope, u were all wrong

Out of 27, I lost 26, and one was a split pot (flop 888 turn A river 8) now that is going against the odds!!!

One hand I pushed all in with Qs10s. 3 other guys all in. Flop AsJs2s. At this stage I could see the other 3 guys cards. One had AA, other QQ, other AJ. Turn 7h, flop Jd - lost to a FH Aces full

I am assuming from this small experiment that the ppl who go all in with poor holdings have the same kind of issues, its just now and again they catch?

Or could it be the Lord was trying to tell me something

ChuckTs said:

Not very many

By probability it should be like 30 or %40 (random vs most pairs + premiums), but it could be anything with only 27 games. I'm guessing you did well by the tone of your post

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How would this be the case Chuck? 30 or 40% seems high to me

well that's assuming that you're getting called by one player only. big assumption, I know.

I wrote it when I first woke up. Don't hate

I play like a donk all the time.

Its a dirty secret we all do it
YA KNOW YA WANNA
Be a DONK LMAO

It was for fun, quads. Lighten up.

Yea, just finished a days work, still in office, and went online. Think I was harsh there. But still the poster could care less about FPP's like myself, but many broken down shoes out there, take it serious and get excited about winning a seat to bogus 100k tourney.

in 27 first hands im going to say u won 8 of them...thats just winning the first hand right not winning the whole thing...

He already gave the answer above.

Whoops. Could have swore it was going to be a greater winning % than usual, by the sounds of his first post there. That's some hard luck, especially if you're at Stars.

ya i kno i wanted to guess before i found the answer haha

haha ya im slow but i didnt look real hard at them symbols at the end of the title but its play lie a donk or a fish...for any other slow ppl such as myself

If you tell me the average number of opponents that called you, I will estimate the overall probability to be that "unlucky" in 27 games.

Cheetah said:

If you tell me the average number of opponents that called you, I will estimate the overall probability to be that "unlucky" in 27 games.

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This would have to be a guess, but I would say on average about 3 ppl all in including me.

quads said:

This thread is just one of many reasons why online is becoming a joke. Then you even got posters attempting to give probable stats for asshole play. Please give me a break.

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Thanks Chuck for pointing out this was for fun.

I have been on the recieving end of this, so I felt like giving it a go.

As for saying online poker is becoming a joke?

What you really mean is that you don`t know how to combat it.

I actually do quite well when I play properly in this. My stats show that this specific SNG tourny I actually win 1 in every 6.5 games I play. I do mean this specific tourny, not all SNG`s.

I play very tight, wait to isolate the maniac heads up with decent holding (2 paint, any ace, any pair) then fire. Once the maniac is out I can then boss the table. Easy (Apart from when u call with AA, the maniac turns 64 and the flop is 357 )

Ronaldadio said:

This would have to be a guess, but I would say on average about 3 ppl all in including me.

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Your win percentage was about 25.32%
Your cEV = -0.24*Stack = -361chips (for 1500 starting stack).
Your $EV < -0.24*BuyIn

The odds to lose 26 all-ins and tie once are approximately 8627 to 1

Below are the losses as a function of average number of callers. As you can see, as the number of donks increases, the average loss goes down. This is one manifestation of the concept of "fish schooling" which basically means that when there are many bad players, they mutually make their play less bad.

Cheetah said:

Your win percentage was about 25.32%
Your cEV = -0.24*Stack = -361chips (for 1500 starting stack).
Your $EV < -0.24*BuyIn

The odds to lose 26 all-ins and tie once are approximately 8627 to 1

Click to expand...

So, if I look at the glass always being 1/2 full, I should be in for a major run soon???

8627 - 1 ??? WOW!!! I am the anti Christ or what???