- Chances are this bet never gets off the ground. Dwan says so himself.
- The game is HORSE so Ivey is a massive, massive favourite
- Even if he only wins at 1BB/100, after 100k hands Ivey would have won $4 million after giving Dwan his 96% back.
It seems so far the bet works like this:
Dwan has paid Ivey $40,000 for the right to play him in a heads-up HORSE match that will last 100,000 hands. Dwan has until the end of 2011 to start the match. If he doesn't, Ivey keeps the $40,000. If he asks to start and Ivey refuses (never going to happen BTW), Ivey owes Dwan $1 million.
If Ivey finishes the 100k hands with a profit he'll give Dwan 96% of his losses back.
The effective stakes for the challenge are supposed to be $50k/$100k. Keep in mind this is limit so those are the small and big bets, not the blinds. Whether the match would actually be played at those stakes though, or whether the match would be played at $2k/$4k and Ivey would pay out whatever multiple was required at the end in the event that Dwan finished up is a bit murky at this stage.
Whether or not buyouts are allowed is also apparently a little murky at this stage. Whether or not there's also a side bet on who is up after the 100k hands is murky as well but it doesn't look like there is.
Lastly, there's a condition that Dwan isn't allowed to hire a specialised coach or get advice from someone he normally wouldn't. So in his words he could ask someone like Phil Galfond for opinions on a hand because that's something he does regularly but he couldn't, say, pay Doyle Brunson to teach him.
That's what the story seems to be at the moment. Onto the important stuff though:
First thing's first, Dwan himself has said in the past day or so it's very likely this bet will not go forward. So chances are that by the end of the year all that will have happened is that Dwan will have given Ivey a $40k gift.
Second, if this thing did get off the ground it would take forever to complete as Ivey isn't much of a multi-tabler and we've already seen how long the existing Durrrr challenges (which are four tables and half the number of hands) can be dragged out for.
Third, and most importantly, anyone who thinks Dwan is any kind of favourite is ignoring the fact that the game is HORSE, not NLHE or PLO. This is definitely Ivey's game. He's generally considered to be the best Stud player in the world, among the best Stud-8 and Razz players in the world, he beats the best in the world (online and live) in LHE and his Omaha-8 game will hardly be shabby either. Dwan would be a serioud dog in this format, which is why he himself is saying it's very likely that this whole thing just won't happen.
Last, for those saying that Ivey doesn't stand to win much, I'm assuming you're focussing on the bit where he gives 96% of Dwan's losses back. You have to remember the stakes that are being played: even if Ivey only wins at 1BB/100 he'd be up $100,000,000. That's right, a cool $100 million. Even after giving 96% back he'd still be up $4 million, and that's if he only wins at 1BB/100. The other likely scenario is that Dwan loses a few million to him and then buys out for a million more or something like that.