percentages & probabilties

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ibsiegel

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ok i posted this hand in a couple threads and have been told many percentages of this happening and how these percentages are fact. Well i would like to know what are the percentages and where are you getting them and how does a probobilty % turn into an ultimate fact?

I am riveraise72
Hand#3220CDD349001585 - $1,000 bankroll Freeroll Satellite T13488969 -- FREEROLL -- $0 + $0 -- 10 Max -- Table 29 -- 60/300/600 NL Hold'em -- 2013/01/28 - 10:32:59
Dealer: Seat 7
Seat 1: Crazd1 (6,634 in chips)
Seat 2: ChoMoJoe!! (5,084 in chips)
Seat 3: riveraise12 (33,115 in chips)
Seat 5: kgs77 (40,042 in chips)
Seat 6: missimarie (4,550 in chips)
Seat 7: forair (3,234 in chips)
Seat 9: AcesBamBam (9,498 in chips)
Seat 10: d4care (21,277 in chips)
Crazd1: posts ante of 60
ChoMoJoe!!: posts ante of 60
riveraise12: posts ante of 60
kgs77: posts ante of 60
missimarie: posts ante of 60
forair: posts ante of 60
AcesBamBam: posts ante of 60
d4care: posts ante of 60
AcesBamBam: posts small blind 300
d4care: posts big blind 600
Dealt to riveraise12 [Ks,Kh]
Crazd1: folds
ChoMoJoe!!: raises to 1,590
riveraise12: raises to 6,150
kgs77: is all in 39,982
missimarie: folds
forair: folds
AcesBamBam: folds
d4care: folds
ChoMoJoe!!: folds
riveraise12: is all in 26,905
kgs77: returns uncalled bet 6,927
riveraise12: shows [Ks Kh]
kgs77: shows [Qc Qs]
*** FLOP *** [4h,2c,2h]
*** TURN *** Q♥
*** RIVER *** 8♥
***SHOW DOWN***
ChoMoJoe!! chats: lmao had 1010
kgs77 wins 69,080 with Full House Queens full of deuces
riveraise12 finished 34 out of 333 players.
 
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doomasiggy

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Nobody is gonna type out a full on mathematical proof here mate. You win here 4/5 times you play, just accept it and move on.
 
LuckyBundy13

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Other than your 3 bet pre being a lil "hefty" , this is all standard. There's no math required.
 
Lucothefish

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Nobody is gonna type out a full on mathematical proof here mate. You win here 4/5 times you play, just accept it and move on.

I'll attempt a very simplified one though!

Its all about probability and expectation. Poker is a highly mathematical game and learning some of the more common mathematics will help your game a lot.

I'd suggest reading about probability, expected value and pot odds. Study study study!

You cannot predict the cards to come but you can calculate the probability of them showing. Let's take your above example - you're ahead, your opponent needs to spike a Q to beat you. What are the chances of it happening?

There's 52 cards in the deck. You hold 2, your opponent holds 2, leaving 48 cards that we don't know the value of.

Chances of NOT hitting a Q on any of the 5 community cards after going all in preflop:

46/48 x 45/47 x 44/46 x 43/45 x 42/44 = about 80%

So in the above example, your KK will hold 80% of the time, we call this having 80% equity in the hand. I've ignored all the random crazy stuff like straights & 4 flushes for simplicity, but there are some great programs that will do all of that stuff in a heartbeat (pokerstove is one of the better ones, and it's free!).

Questions?
 
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doomasiggy

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Also while we're on the subject, probability is always fact by definition; maths isn't some ethereal magic invented by Greeks with beards. We overcome variance (losing KK<QQ), by playing a larger volume so that on average our results will cleave towards perfect.
 
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ibsiegel

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I'll attempt a very simplified one though!

Its all about probability and expectation. Poker is a highly mathematical game and learning some of the more common mathematics will help your game a lot.

I'd suggest reading about probability, expected value and pot odds. Study study study!

You cannot predict the cards to come but you can calculate the probability of them showing. Let's take your above example - you're ahead, your opponent needs to spike a Q to beat you. What are the chances of it happening?

There's 52 cards in the deck. You hold 2, your opponent holds 2, leaving 48 cards that we don't know the value of.

Chances of NOT hitting a Q on any of the 5 community cards after going all in preflop:

46/48 x 45/47 x 44/46 x 43/45 x 42/44 = about 80%

So in the above example, your KK will hold 80% of the time, we call this having 80% equity in the hand. I've ignored all the random crazy stuff like straights & 4 flushes for simplicity, but there are some great programs that will do all of that stuff in a heartbeat (pokerstove is one of the better ones, and it's free!).

Questions?

ok i get i have an 80% chance at winning .... pretty good odds

Here is a quote from the other thread.....

ssbn743
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ibsiegel
as far as the 44 hand goes the QQ shoved he didnt raise/call a shove he shoved and if you notice that isnt what i did i called the shove to my raise. I wouldnt play the hand i posted any different in either position. I wish i would have won but i didnt initiate the all in the utg did.
Further more that is why i didnt just shove because this exact result happens more often then not.
The exact same result happens 16% of the time – not more often than not!


how can anyone say that this will happen 16% of the time. That is a definite statement. There is no way someone can say a certain result will happen X%.

the Probabilty may be 16% but to say that is set in stone isnt reality...
 
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ibsiegel

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Also while we're on the subject, probability is always fact by definition; maths isn't some ethereal magic invented by Greeks with beards. We overcome variance (losing KK<QQ), by playing a larger volume so that on average our results will cleave towards perfect.

no Probability is a ratio based off of a certain input, and is still an mathmatical based assumption. It is not a fact that QQ will beat KK 16% of the time.

Nor is it a Fact that KK will beat QQ 80%. It is a probability based on mathmatical inputs and a PROBABILITY NOT A SET IN STONE OUTCOME.
\
 
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doomasiggy

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ok i get i have an 80% chance at winning .... pretty good odds

Here is a quote from the other thread.....

ssbn743
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Join Date: Oct 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ibsiegel
as far as the 44 hand goes the QQ shoved he didnt raise/call a shove he shoved and if you notice that isnt what i did i called the shove to my raise. I wouldnt play the hand i posted any different in either position. I wish i would have won but i didnt initiate the all in the utg did.
Further more that is why i didnt just shove because this exact result happens more often then not.
The exact same result happens 16% of the time – not more often than not!


how can anyone say that this will happen 16% of the time. That is a definite statement. There is no way someone can say a certain result will happen X%.

the Probabilty may be 16% but to say that is set in stone isnt reality...

sigh.

1) he didn't say KK would lose to 44 16% of the time, it was KK < undercards if I remember correctly.

2) fine, you win. Maths has no bearing on the game because maths has no bearing on reality. Every winning player in the world is wrong, every scientist and statistician that uses combinatronics doesn't understand that probabilities are "just a ratio", and you are just the unluckiest player in the world. Happy now?
 
Lucothefish

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The more repetitions of outcomes you perform, the closer you get to true expectation. As dooma said, play larger volume to reduce variance.

Please study up on the topics I mentioned and it should all become clearer.
 
AlfieAA

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Spend some time on pokerstove and learn about equity........infact spend lots of time on stove
 
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doomasiggy

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Spend some time on pokerstove and learn about equity........infact spend lots of time on stove

In before: "so you let a computer tell you what to do? I play the player, not a computer."
 
MasterOfDisaster

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Talking about probability just witnessed this :)

First time I have ever seen this in PLO AAKK vs AAKK and one made a flush as well lol

wowgn.png
[/URL] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/IMG]
 
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ibsiegel

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Talking about probability just witnessed this :)

First time I have ever seen this in PLO AAKK vs AAKK and one made a flush as well lol

wowgn.png
[/URL] Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/IMG]

i will try and look for the hand history but i had KK all in utg calls has KK and he hit the flush as well.
 
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ibsiegel

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sigh.

1) he didn't say KK would lose to 44 16% of the time, it was KK < undercards if I remember correctly.

2) fine, you win. Maths has no bearing on the game because maths has no bearing on reality. Every winning player in the world is wrong, every scientist and statistician that uses combinatronics doesn't understand that probabilities are "just a ratio", and you are just the unluckiest player in the world. Happy now?

Doom im not trying to win an argument i am trying to understand or find out where these statistics are so i can compare them to my actual play and see if i agree with them or not or see if i agree with a lot of the strategy that i am reading on here. My only point above was a stat/% isn't a set in stone conclusion it is a guide that's all. Plus i am trying to find out who compiled them and if they are based off of a large sampling group or if they are based only on mathematical calculations.

I also play the player instead of a set strategy that is why i am asking?
 
masondub

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Anything can happen. Poker is awesome :]
 
Martingale

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Plus i am trying to find out who compiled them and if they are based off of a large sampling group or if they are based only on mathematical calculations.

I cannot resist recommending one of my favorite books on discrete probability. It is volume 1 of the classic by the Croatian-American mathematician William Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Wiley, 3rd Edition, 1968. (Previous editions will likely do as well. Don't be misled by the book's age, it really stood the test of time.)

If you are interested in what mathematicians and other mortals understand by "probability", how it applies to real-world situations such as poker where at any point the number of possibilities is finite, and how Lucothefish comes to his calculation, you may find this book very inspiring.
 
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ibsiegel

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I cannot resist recommending one of my favorite books on discrete probability. It is volume 1 of the classic by the Croatian-American mathematician William Feller, An Introduction to Probability Theory and its Applications, Wiley, 3rd Edition, 1968. (Previous editions will likely do as well. Don't be misled by the book's age, it really stood the test of time.)

If you are interested in what mathematicians and other mortals understand by "probability", how it applies to real-world situations such as poker where at any point the number of possibilities is finite, and how Lucothefish comes to his calculation, you may find this book very inspiring.

Very interesting as I myself have enjoyed math and probabilities most of my life in addition to the application of it. I will definitely look into this.
 
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